Xianyihouyang yesterday dollars, substantially higher than the U.S. currency fell, after yesterday and will float, the tendency to short-term market shocks, Africa and the United States have a certain currency rebounded finishing ability, but there is still downward pressure on the whole.
Euro / dollar: Chonggao down yesterday, the lowest 1.54 to the forefront, the morning low of shocks, dressing a certain rebound in demand, above 1.5480 resistance, a breakthrough would ease the current unfavorable situation, which rebounded to 1.5550 line, blocked the other hand, tend to continue to fall, Breakdown 1.54, the initial target of 1.5340 line.
Dollar / Swiss franc: short-term exchange rate of resistance at 1.0450, breaking 1.05 crossings will be on trial, while below support at the forefront 1.04,1.0350, below this level before, the exchange rate shocks tend to uplink.
Sterling / dollar: the same Chonggao yesterday%26#39;s exchange rate of decline, the important support of 1.96, fell will continue to fall, the initial target of 1.95 line, and need to stand firm above 1.97, to ease the downward pressure, which rebounded to 1.9780 first.
Dollar / Canadian dollar: Figure hour near overbought indicators, short-term exchange rate tend to pullback, followed 1.0050,1.00 juncture, the breakdown this juncture, the greenback tend to uplink to break through 1.01, the initial target of 1.0150 line.
Aussie / dollar: early greenback fell 0.95 has been the front line, an important support below 0.9450, fell to fell, and the need to return to the top of 0.9550 on to mitigate the current downward pressure.
Dollar / yen: high exchange rate shocks, resistance to 105.50, breaking the front line will challenge the 106, here for the current key resistance, and support at the forefront 104.70,104, here for the current key support.
The dollar index: yesterday%26#39;s sharp gains, the current line has exceeded 73.20, will stand up shocks, breaking 73.60, will challenge the previous high of 73.90 and 73.20 below only breakdown, back to 73 under, to mitigate the shocks up trend.
Gold: Chonggao down the same yesterday, the important support for the 875-871 region, the breakdown to see 845 low, but Shouwen 890,897 is expected to rebound in the forefront, the current gold stand only 900 checkpoints in order to ease the pressure drop. Gold tendency to short-term shocks, the next action to advantage.
6/05/2008
breakthrough in the Asian market opened up, Africa and the United States fell -
Euro flag-relay along false breakthroughs, the sharp decline -
Recalling the trend:
Euro / dollar short-term ups and downs larger trend, the overall tempo rose after the first or main, the exchange rate of 1.5630 in the vicinity of the strong resistance, the 90-point gain in the case of resistance fell by 200 points. K-Line, graphics or hatched longer Yinxian, the average exchange rate system pressure shocks finishing, the trend is expected to continue to pre-test interval low, euro / dollar medium-term trend of consolidation mainly to maintain high interval.
Short-term direction of the day: shock adjustment weak support: strong support 1.5410: 1.5280 weak resistance: 1.5470 strong resistance: 1.5580
Trend Analysis:
Graphics on the hour from the analysis, MA divergence system was running down with mainly short-term extension of the original main trend is still downward trend in rhythm. Yesterday%26#39;s short-term trend first started up, testing the meta-level flag-on along the location, then leave in the formation along the breakthrough finally fell below the record low along the continuing downward position. MACD indicators wear under zero-axis position, the current momentum in a short area, is expected today euro / dollar down more likely to maintain short-term.
Operation of reference:
The recent operation, the center line interval as a guide to thinking short-term downward to operate as the guide line of thought.
A warehouse:
More warehouses holding the euro investors, will be set up in the stop-loss 1.5410, target: 1.5460
Kongcang investors holding the euro, will be set up in the stop-loss 1.5470, target: 1.5300
Kongcang: Kongcang investors to maintain wait-and-see attitude.
International foreign exchange market the dollar RMB exchange rate down slightly -
International foreign exchange markets all higher dollar, the yuan against the dollar even bid farewell to a new high momentum, a slight decline. China%26#39;s foreign exchange trading center from the latest data indicate that, on June 4 RMB yuan against the dollar at 6.9356, lower than the 61 basis points the previous day.
People%26#39;s Bank of China authorized foreign exchange trading center announced on June 4, 2008 the interbank foreign exchange market the dollar and other currencies for the price of the RMB exchange rate: one dollar for 6.9356 yuan, 1 euro 10.7127 yuan, 100 Yen to 6.5969 yuan, 1 Hong Kong dollar to 0.88860 yuan, 1 pound 13.6122 yuan.
The previous day, the RMB exchange rate against the U.S. dollar to 6.9295 yuan hit a new high since the change.
Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke delivered a speech Tuesday, said the Fed is closely monitoring the foreign exchange market movements and that it will continue to develop policies to ensure the realization of sustainable economic growth and inflation remain low in the dual objectives. Bernanke speech on the consolidation of the market will not take the Fed%26#39;s expected rate cut initiatives, the dollar has prompted the international foreign exchange markets all rose. In this context, the yuan-dollar exchange rate rise, probably, a slight decline. (Xinhua)
The proliferation of pounds along the triangle of support, the trend will be repeated -
Recalling the trend:
Sterling / dollar short-term trends in the proliferation of triangular shape to maintain the shock adjustment in the exchange rate under the triangle along the location of access to support and maintain the pace of consolidation. K-Line, graphics or video on the line longer Yinxian, and K-Line for two consecutive trading days or Yinxian, the 144-day MA stronger role in the resistance, the average exchange rate system of repression under the disadvantaged adjustment, MACD indicators in the zero-axis position To be formed Sicha, sterling / dollar movements remain at the bottom of the medium-term consolidation range, medium-term bottom to the pre-test a greater number of possibilities.
Short-term direction of the day: shock finishing weak support: strong support 1.9595: 1.9500 weak resistance: 1.9670 strong resistance: 1.9750
Trend Analysis:
Graphics on the hour from the analysis, MA system to continue to keep short-run oriented, MACD indicators in the shaft below the zero position Sicha opening run down, the kinetic energy from the indicators to see short-dominated. From the shape, although yesterday%26#39;s exchange rate fluctuations in the phenomenon, and the exchange rate has not fallen below 1.9590 support position, and in the proliferation of access to locations along the triangle of support, from an objective trend of pounds to maintain short-term downward trend in the main, if the trend can not be effective Below 1.9500 location, the trend will continue for some short-term trend repeated rhythm.
The recent operation, the center line interval as a guide to thinking short-term operation as a guide to progressive ideas.
A warehouse:
More than a pound positions of investors, will be set up in the stop-loss 1.9520, target: 1.9700
Kongcang a pound of investors, will be set up in the stop-loss 1.9750, target: 1.9550
Kongcang:
Australia on short-term technical analysis -
The market in the past week after the exploration high 101 down, is currently in the March 14 start of the rising wave of the trend line of directions. So far the position is 99.27. If in the next two days of sessions can not effectively break through 99.00, then prices are likely to continue rising trend of the big waves, but that this trend began to change. Observation of the dispersal of the proposed operation, wait and see.
The dollar's recent strength has been to seize the market psychology -
FED Chairman Ben Bernanke%26#39;s speech and the United States favorable accident in April factory orders in the currency set off waves, the United States refers to a short period of time soared to 73.30 from 72.70, all non-US currencies are significantly down Qingxie, as at press time Only the recent strength of the Australian dollar to recover slightly, and the remaining Africa and the United States were the strong dollar yesterday hit a low of finishing into the mire. While gold and oil prices also meet to have waned, 880 and 125, respectively, frustrated important psychological barrier.
Bernanke%26#39;s speech style remains unchanged, that is, he has never expressed himself on the future of monetary policy tendencies, his speech is always trying to seize a delicate balance, but the market is very sensitive, so once again Bernanke Of the market defined the two main points: One is the rate cut has been no mention, and this month FED meeting will also maintain a 2% interest rates unchanged; second is years ahead of rate hikes will be, relevant statistical data, FED10 On the possibility of raising interest rates have climbed to 80 percent. In fact, the market is psychological, Bernanke%26#39;s remarks to the good care market sentiment, on the other hand, only one hour interval, the more positive in April factory orders end to the long waiting dollar lost its multi-forces no longer on, Like a volcanic eruption to the trend of admission, the strong performance of the dollar%26#39;s recent push Zhigao Dian.
Through the current round of skyrocketing, the follow-up currency in Africa and the United States may have the data it is very difficult to influence the corresponding currency movements, or even positive data also may not be able to enter into a non-US upstream much momentum, and if negative, it may be mentioned - Dollar further strengthened; this week%26#39;s market focus is destined focusing on the dollar, market sentiment has gradually move closer to the dollar. Today%26#39;s U.S. May ISM manufacturing data will be the first test of dollars, but I believe that now that if the dollar%26#39;s strength has reached peak too early and finally, the dollar rose after taking a short-term inevitable Small trend, but this time the trend is worth noting However, if the data generated and the negative resonance, the dollar will also bear a lot of pressure.
Disclaimer:
The information in this report are derived from publicly available information, accurate and reliable to shift investment, but the accuracy of such information makes no assurance that this investment is at your own risk. The report does not constitute a personal investment recommendations, and no special consideration to individual customers of the investment objectives, financial situation of living needs of clients should be considered in this report any comments or suggestions are in line with their specific conditions. Without a red shift of investment license, any quote, reproduced and transmitted to a third party may act liability.
European cities: the strengthening dollar accident, Africa and the United States vulnerable collective adjustment -
Bank of Japan Governor Baichuan Fangming recently said that if the economic growth rate up, then the central bank%26#39;s monetary policy may encourage the risk of excessive investment. Shirakawa Fang-ming, warning, the risk of excessive investment might have exacerbated the future economic turbulence. He pointed out that the existence of downside risk for growth, the economy will recover next year. He said that Japan%26#39;s economic growth rate in the 08 hit 1.5 percent again after rising 09 the growth rate may be faster, this will be close to Japan%26#39;s economic growth potential.
British consumer confidence fell 1 point to 69, extending from September 2007 since the fall momentum and a record four-year low. In addition Bank of England%26#39;s Monetary Policy Committee will soon meet for two days of meetings and published in Thursday%26#39;s interest rate decision. The market expected the Bank of England to leave interest rates unchanged, but the recent weakness in housing data, mortgage lending institutions and the loss of consumer confidence data to the Bank of England rate cut expected substantial increase in the future.
The euro against the dollar gradually to average short-order system run by the average exchange rate of repression, overall look at the main air. The rise in local energy, MACD indicator is the bottom of a shaft Sicha, short of the advantages of kinetic energy. At the current pace of minor adjustments, based on primary and secondary investors to go short-based.
British pound against the dollar MA systems are running short, the main downward trend mainly to maintain. £ days the main downward trend mainly to exchange rate rose yesterday after the sharp decline, down from the slope down to see the intensity of strong performance, in the current temporary 1.95900 supported, and will continue to see below the main space.
The dollar was MA system gradually to uplink with long, maintaining the trend of small-up tempo. MACD indicators, wearing a long axis of kinetic energy within the region, long dominated. Short-term to maintain the overall trend in the level of shock adjustment range, along again to the interval on the test on the role of strong resistance along, the whereabouts of the possibility of resistance.
USDCAD to short-term upward trend mainly as a whole, the trend line channel running along the first position, and the performance from K-Line, the action can appear on signs of slowing, MACD indicators of high Sicha, the more short-covering, the trend is expected today Rhythm is expected to record high after the downward trend to the main rhythm.
Aussie dollar record low against the trend was quickly recovered uplink, blue along the channel under strong supporting role, to maintain the downward trend channel, is expected to channel will be subject to certain locations along the resistance role.
Inflationary pressures continued to seek firmer Australian dollar rose -
Australian dollar held steady Tuesday repeatedly tried to rebound, Australia Tuesday announced that the Federal Reserve to maintain the 7.25 percent level of interest rates unchanged, in line with market expectations. But after the hard-line statements than-expected drop in the Aussie short-term.
Australian Fed statement said that the current monetary policy stance for a short period of time. However, due to inflation in Australia will continue to be revenue flows of trade and to promote increased, in which case higher interest rates unchanged on the Australian dollar will continue to constitute support, on the other hand the weak U.S. economy continued to decline in the dollar medium-term expectations Unchanged, the U.S. Institute for Supply Management (ISM) announced Monday, May ISM manufacturing index from April%26#39;s 48.6 to 49.6, is expected to 48.5, data preferences to reduce the market but worry about the manufacturing sector still shrinking trend will be repeated for the dollar Pressure. Australian dollar terms fundamentals will continue to try to move up repeatedly.
Technically, the Australian dollar from 0.966 on the direction of amendments in the vicinity of 0.95 repeatedly encountered support, technology has repeatedly held steady signs of heavy resistance at 0.966, 0.953-support, the proposal to absorb a small amount of bargain hunting bullish.
Japanese Yen 103 short-term development is expected to rally in the yen Tuesday, Britain%26#39;s largest mortgage lender, investment in a recent trading scheme, announced in the notice, the first four months of this year over a year earlier profit fell nearly 50 percent, reducing the plan The scale for the shares, and announced that the United States from a private direct investment companies receive cash injection.
Short-term yen to 103 is expected to be repeated, on the other hand, according to The News of the calculations, the economic entities in Japan have been the third consecutive month decline, the Japanese economic downturn or even recession will increase the worries of a trend of the yen Pressure. Technology is expected to remain 105.6 yen to 102.80 range repeatedly, operating on high parabolic Dixi-based bias.
Credit crisis seems to be the end of the market re-focused inflation -
Dollar rose sharply yesterday. Mainly due to the evening speech Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke said the U.S. dollar%26#39;s weakness on the domestic inflationary impact of a warning, and implied that the year is unlikely to further cut official interest rates, while the United States on April factory orders rise in the rate of 1.1 percent better than Market expectations that the U.S. manufacturing sector to accelerate the rate of expansion and enhance the market for the U.S. economy%26#39;s sustained recovery is expected, making the dollar rose sharply. Today, the data need to pay attention to the U.S. May ISM non-manufacturing index.
Euro / dollar (EUR / USD)
Four hours from the map view, MACD divergence continue Sicha, the price temporarily BOLL under the tracks of the support, have continued to fall short-term risks. Today need to pay attention to the support at 1.5400 and 1.5320; resistance at 1.5475 and 1.5510.
Feng Gao sold on the proposed operation. The current price in the vicinity of 1.5444. Can be considered at the venue in the vicinity of 1.5470, 1.5510 stops at the top, won only around 1.5370; if it stops short wait and see.
Sterling / dollar (GBP / USD)
Four hours from the map view, MACD divergence continue Sicha, the prices are BOLL in orbit of repression, continue to lower shocks. Today need to pay attention to the support at 1.9610 and 1.9530; resistance at 1.9670 and 1.9740.
Feng Gao sold on the proposed operation. The current price in the vicinity of 1.9620. The approach could be considered near-1.9650, stops at the top of 1.9680, 1.9530 win only around if it stops short wait and see.
Aussie / dollar (AUD / USD)
Four hours from the map view, MACD again Jincha bond prices temporarily suppressed by the 60 MA, can stand firm in the top 60 MA is short-term will continue to rise. Today need to pay attention to the support at 0.9520 and 0.9480; resistance at 0.9580 and 0.9650.
Operation on the proposed bargain hunting buying. The current price in the vicinity of 0.9553. The approach could be considered near-0.9510, stops below 0.9480, 0.9620 win only around if it stops short wait and see.
Dollar / yen (USD / JPY)
Four hours from the map view, MACD Jincha bond prices temporarily BOLL track and MA in the support system. Today need to pay attention to the support at 104.80 and 104.40; resistance at 105.40 and 105.90.
Operation on the proposed bargain hunting buying. The current price in the vicinity of 105.16. The approach could be considered at 104.90 in the vicinity, stop-loss below 104.70, 105.80 won only around if it stops short wait and see.
Dollar / Swiss franc (USD / CHF)
Four hours from the map view, MACD Jincha bonding, the average price by 5 short-term support is expected to continue to rise. Today need to pay attention to the support at 1.0380 and 1.0310; resistance at 1.0470 and 1.0520.
Operation on the proposed bargain hunting buying. The current price in the vicinity of 1.0413. Can be considered at the venue in the vicinity of 1.0390, stops below 1.0360, 1.0510 win only around if it stops short wait and see.
Dollar / Canadian dollar (USD / CAD)
Four hours from the map view, MACD Jincha divergence, BOLL opening divergence, along BOLL prices continue to rise on track. Today need to pay attention to the support at 1.0040 and 1.0000; resistance at 1.0150 and 1.0210.
Operation on the proposed bargain hunting buying. The current price in the vicinity of 1.0090. Can be considered at the venue in the vicinity of 1.0070, stops below 1.0040, 1.0190 win only around if it stops short wait and see. (Zhao Zhen)
Dollar upward rebound -
Yesterday to today, the dollar overall has rebounded upward trend. The dollar index yesterday%26#39;s intraday high of 73.49 points, to May 15 the highest. The deadline for dispatch, the run on the dollar index 73.33 points.
Last night, Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke speech dollar rose to become the main driving force. Last night, Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke said: second half of this year U.S. economic growth may cut tax rebates and the effect of play and improve. Africa and the United States dollar against other currencies led to the U.S. inflation rate fell to unwelcome levels. The Fed can not further reduce official interest rates.
At the same time, last night the famous master investment Soros said: Fed lowered interest rates may have reached the limit.
At present the latest U.S. interest rate futures market data shows that: the Federal Reserve in June at two percent interest rates unchanged to maintain the possibility to achieve a 98 per cent, the possibility of the Fed raising interest rates during the year rose to 80 percent.
Fed rate cut decreased the possibility of future interest rate increase is expected to gradually rise, this is the recent rebound in the dollar index up the main reason.
At the same time, the United States last night announced on April factory orders rise in the rate of 1.1 percent. The data on short-term dollar also more favorable.
On the recent dollar index is expected to stall near the 74 points are integral Commissioner resistance. Once again the position effective breakthrough, the dollar is still the possibility to continue to rise.
Last night to today, the euro to the overall pullback based. Last night, after falling as low as 1.5409 euro. The euro stabilized somewhat this morning. The deadline for dispatch, the euro operating in the vicinity of 1.5452.
The dollar%26#39;s rally last night and part of the European Central Bank officials to address the impact of the euro will bring. Last night the European Central Bank officials Noah said: Eurozone inflation pressures could stabilize at a high level after the rapid decline. Spanish central bank governor said Aude, it is: in 2008 the Spanish economy will continue to be weak.
However, yesterday afternoon announced the euro zone this year in the first quarter GDP growth rate of 0.8 percent, higher than the 0.3 percent growth in value before, and last night the European Central Bank President Jean-Claude Trichet said: maintaining price stability, monetary authorities is still the essence of responsibility.
The above data and content of his speech to temporarily stand in the euro above 1.54 integral clearance operation.
The recent euro is expected to file in support of a 1.53-1.54 range, while the euro on file in the 1.56-1.57 range with greater resistance.
I present to the future trend of the euro remained more cautious view. 4 this week the European Central Bank monetary policy as well as the European Central Bank President Jean-Claude Trichet%26#39;s speech will be in focus.
Last night to today, the British pound fell slightly after the support. Last night, after falling as low as 1.9598 pounds, the highest rebound in this morning 1.9635. The deadline for dispatch, the British pound running in the vicinity of this maximum price.
Although the British pound fell Africa and the United States by the other effects of low, but is widely expected this week Bank of England%26#39;s four interest rate will remain unchanged, this is brought to the pound for their support.
The pound is expected to stall in recent 1.94-1.95 range of support to a certain extent by the recent pounds in the 1.97-1.98 range on file or a greater resistance.
Yesterday to today, the yen has dropped Chonggao the trend. Yesterday%26#39;s intraday high of 103.87 yen, but then falling as low as 105.54. At the present, 105.22 yen fluctuations in the vicinity.
Last night, the Bank of Japan Governor Baichuan Fang-ming said: Japan%26#39;s economic growth downward risks biased in favour of price risk of bias in the uplink. His speech to the Japanese yen brought some adverse effects.
However, this morning, the U.S. Dow Jones index fell 100 points over again, the yen has also brought some good support.
However, the author is still cautious about the future rebound in the yen. From a technical perspective, the recent Japanese Yen 105 integral in the vicinity of the Commissioner will encounter resistance.
From a technical perspective, the recent downside in the 106-107 yen range may be supported.
Today, the main concern of economic data and important events:
Concern: This afternoon the euro zone and its major member states in May announced the non-purchasing managers index, the euro zone April retail sales, today announced the May U.S. non-purchasing managers index, the United Kingdom in April leading indicators.
Operation of the proposed major currencies:
The U.S. dollar exchange rate:
1, if the dollar index rebounded in the 73.50-74 point range, Feng Gao can continue to sell dollars.
2, the author of personal preference or after the dollar%26#39;s rally may encounter some resistance.
3, of course, once the dollar index effective breakthrough in the next 74 points integral clearance, you can buy high Zaizhui look at high-line.
4, in the recent dollar index dropped to 72-72.50 point interval bargain hunting buying, the opportunity to obtain short-term rebound.
Of the Australian dollar exchange rate:
1, if the Australian dollar fell to 0.95 integral customs, can bargain hunting buying, the opportunity to obtain short-term rebound.
2, in general the recent rebound in close to 0.96 Australian dollars rounded Commissioner sold mainly near Feng Gao.
3, of course, once the Australian dollar fell below 0.95 integral effective customs, the stop-loss buying Australian dollars.
4, the author individuals or cautious about the overall future Australian dollar rebound.
Xu Zhang gold strength of the U.S. dollar continued to fall -
Recalling the trend:
Tuesday, June 3, Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke speech that the weak dollar adversely on the U.S. economy that will no longer be a rate cut, the dollar. New York gold futures fell more than 11 U.S. dollars, at a minimum of three days.
New York Mercantile Exchange, August gold futures prices closed down 11.50 U.S. dollars, to close at 885.50 U.S. dollars an ounce, the lowest to 878 U.S. dollars an ounce, set on May 29 has the lowest price.
July crude oil futures prices closed down 3.45 U.S. dollars, to three-week low of 124.31 U.S. dollars a barrel.
Bernanke speech after the dollar rebounded sharply, from the previous dollar index rose 72.72 to 73.317. But Bernanke speech does not change the fundamentals of the U.S. economy, including the real estate market fell, the huge trade deficit, credit and systemic risks.
Support and resistance:
Support at:
Weak support: 875
In support of: 870
Strong support: 845
Resistance weak resistance: 885
In the resistance: 897
Strong resistance :904-903
SCL trend analysis:
Spot gold in the international March 17 has gained almost touched 1,033 U.S. dollars / oz-time high, set a rare high! Market pessimism on the dollar and the impact on gold prices in the first quarter this year rose rapidly, while gold is the favored investors hedge functionality into the target.
Medium and long-term look at this wave of gold rising trend has not yet ended, basically well above 940 U.S. dollars in the firm, although with gold rising, adjustments to face high risk is gradually increasing, but not below as long as the key to The level of support the center line, good long-term trend will continue.
At present the central line of gold into the adjustment phase, in the online April 1 has dropped punctured issued 880 U.S. dollars first-line support, and fell to around 870 U.S. dollars, the important long-term support around 850-845 dollars.
Since May 27 to the end of the sharp fall, making gold re-test of 845 U.S. dollars have decreased the risk of support, or even below greatly increases the risk.
Short-term trend analysis:
Tuesday the North American sessions, because of his speech, Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke said the weak dollar adversely on the U.S. economy that will no longer be a rate cut, the strength of the U.S. dollar higher against the gold market thus substantially down 11 dollars, the lowest international spot gold fell to 875 Nearby.
At present short-term access to Hengpan early trading in Asia held steady, but downside risks remain, is expected today during the European gold will be re-tested and decreased the risk of 870 U.S. dollars below the forefront of support, or even below.
Operating strategy reference:
Rising trend in short-term adjustment, the central line of adjustment.
A warehouse:
1, if short-term short selling gold single, stop-loss on the 905, 882 in the first Jiancang, the remaining air-to continue to hold, could be considered in the forefront Jiancang 865.
2, if short-term multi-gold, the sidelines.
3, where the central line of multi-gold, in the 850-845 had done more and more single, stop-loss on 810, not to set goals.
No positions:
无.
Shangcuanxiatiao maintain the rhythm of the yen -
Fundamentals:
Yesterday, the dollar rose substantially, before the U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke to the U.S. dollar on the strength of the speech had a significant impact on the market. Bernanke%26#39;s speech clearly shows that the Fed has changed the weaker dollar will help promote economic growth view, but that with inflation related to resist the negative impact is even more important. However dollars in North America or investors taking part, the U.S. banking industry because of fears drag down the U.S. stock market, the Lehman Brothers shares fell to credit the most serious crisis since the period of low, dollar gains that some excesses. Later this week, the European Central Bank President Jean-Claude Trichet is expected Thursday in the Management Committee meetings will be issued after the speech still tend tough. In addition, five will be announced this week the U.S. non-farm payrolls report.
Recalling the session:
U.S. dollar against the yen on the map of direction Hengpan yesterday volatility 169 points to close out a small Yangxian. Short-term exchange rate to maintain the recent pace of disorder shocks, the overall strength of the U.S. dollar, led by the United States and Japan again to the recent high impact. Now 105.70 and 106.30 still at the top of the two-way, the proposal before the breakthrough against the Japanese yen continues to maintain a wait-and-see attitude.
Day short-term direction: to maintain wide shocks weak support: 103.90 strong support: 102.57
Weak resistance: 105.70 strong resistance: 106.30
U.S. dollar against the yen Monday after a drop in re-adjusting after the resumption of up trend, the greenback consecutive month in a clutter of the rhythm. On the map through the average exchange rate system repeatedly, MACD is a small point of departure from the top signal. Restore momentum of the United States and Japan is expected to decline further to the pressure at the top of the line to challenge, but not be considered to do more transactions. Four hours Hengpan plans objective trend, with two major short-term upward Elevated Yangxian re-dollar, continuation of the recent US-Japan shocks rhythm. Figure hour, MA system was once again above the first resistance at a high point in front of 105.70, before the breakthrough on the impact of downward pressure on the map of strong resistance line.
Operation of reference:
The recent operation, the center line, are in short interval operation as a guide line of thought.
A warehouse: many hands if the United States and Japan alone, stop loss 104.40 target 105.20; hands if the United States and Japan-air, stop-loss on 105.95, 104.10 goal.
Kongcang: today continue to wait and see.
Inflation is Dan Rao, the man support of dollars -
June 3 Tuesday dollars of foreign exchange market rose sharply, Africa and the United States currency fell setback. April data showed U.S. factory orders rose by 1.1 percent, 0.1 percent expect a decline, the data showed that U.S. manufacturing accelerated the rate of expansion and enhance the market for the U.S. economy%26#39;s sustained recovery is expected. U.S. April consumer durable goods orders fell a revised 0.6 percent rate, is expected to decline 0.5 percent, data performance favourably. However, Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke Tuesday (June 3) to the depreciation of the dollar rarely the inflationary risk warnings, also said U.S. interest rates are well adapted to the growth and price pressures facing the threat of economic situation. Raising interest rates expected to rekindle, the dollar rebounded sharply. The euro fell 1.56 juncture, plunged nearly 150 points; pounds lost 1.97 juncture, Kuangxie more than 100 points the dollar / yen from 104.50 strong gains. The current market sentiment has been beneficial for short-term dollar is expected to continue the good momentum up. Wednesday will announce the first quarter of the U.S. non-farm productivity final, the United States in May ISM non-manufacturing index, U.S. crude inventories last week EIA changes.
Technical indicators and trend forecast:
Euro / dollar euro / dollar is expected to settle down, the first goal, or see support at 1.5320 U.S. dollars. Eurozone April producer price index on rise in the rate of 0.8 percent, with the same expectations, the euro zone%26#39;s final first quarter GDP rose 2.2 percent annual rate, expected to rise 2.2 percent. Data in line with expectations, the market little. However, Bernanke speech delivered Tuesday in Spain, said: In the economic challenges facing since last year, adding to the downward pressure on the dollar and triggered a disturbing rise in import prices and inflationary pressures. Fed Chairman Bonan G worried dollar fell to the inflation problem will worsen, this straightforward remarks caused a chain reaction of financial markets - substantially higher dollar, the euro / dollar dropped sharply. Wednesday will announce the euro zone April retail sales.
From a technical level to see: yesterday%26#39;s Europe against the United States Xianyanghouyi, fell from a high of 1.5628 minimum 1.5410, K Line, to a large Yinxian. Today, the United States and Europe against the MACD below the 0-axis began to expand, RSI is still below the 50 move, KD line has entered the oversold region, there is still room to see empty, the euro is expected today in a number of 1.5600 resistance, to continue to pullback in the 100-day MA will be supported.
Support at: 1.5320,1.5400 resistance: 1.5560
Sterling / dollar sterling / dollar is expected to settle down, or see the first goal of supporting 1.9600 U.S. dollars. Tuesday May data showed the British construction industry purchasing managers index fell to 46.1 for the month 43.9,4; data weighed on the pound. Meanwhile, the U.S. Commerce Department report Tuesday, the United States on April factory orders rise in the rate of 1.1 percent is expected to decline 0.1 percent. This data showed that U.S. manufacturing accelerated the rate of expansion and enhance the market for the U.S. economy%26#39;s sustained recovery is expected, further weighed on the pound. Another Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke on Tuesday was a rare depreciation of the dollar the risk of inflation warnings, claimed that U.S. interest rates are well adapted to the growth and price pressures facing the threat of economic situation. His speech hinted that the Fed might keep rates unchanged recently. Wednesday will announce the United Kingdom in May Nationwide consumer confidence index.
Technical analysis: sterling / dollar on the map displayed on the unknown. MACD-line in the shaft to reduce 0, RSI indicators in the disadvantaged regions slightly upward, random KD pointer Sicha down. The previous day pounds / dollars on exploration highest level fell to 1.9741 after the lowest see 1.9603. Today is expected to pound / dollar at 1.9740, if fully adjusted to the bottom of the region, will be lowered the support at 1.9600. Investors expected a downward correction.
Support at: 1.9600 resistance: 1.9740
Australian dollar / Australian dollar / dollar is expected to settle down, the first goal, or see resistance at 0.9600 U.S. dollars. The Australian Bureau of Statistics data released Wednesday showed that Australia first quarter GDP rose 0.6 percent quarter rate, the former value increased by 0.6 percent, expected to rise 0.3 percent annual rate rose by 3.6%, the former value increased by 3.9 percent, expected to rise 2.9 percent. Australia first-quarter economic growth than expected, showing that the Australian economy in the face of high interest rates and life, the cost of production increased substantially, still has strong flexibility and vitality. At the same time, the Reserve Bank of Australia also increased the possibility of future rate hikes further. Data released after the Australian dollar rose rapidly.
Technical analysis: Aussie / dollar on the map show that different. MACD indicators in the shaft below 0 reduced, RSI indicators in 50 regional slightly upward, random KD pointer in 24 regions have formed Jin Cha situation. The previous day%26#39;s Aussie / dollar high of 0.9612 on the exploration decline after the minimum see 0.9507. Today is expected to Aussie / dollar at 0.9500 if support was at the top of the region, will be on the exploration of the resistance at 0.9600. Investors expected upward correction.
Support at: 0.9500 resistance: 0.9600
New Zealand yuan / dollar New Zealand yuan / dollar is expected to settle down, the first goal, or see support at 0.7700 U.S. dollars. Tuesday April data showed U.S. factory orders rose by 1.1 percent, 0.1 percent expect a decline, the data showed that U.S. manufacturing accelerated the rate of expansion and enhance the market for the U.S. economy%26#39;s sustained recovery is expected, suppressing the New Zealand yuan fell. At the same time, Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke worried about dollar continued to fall to the inflation problem will worsen, this straightforward remarks caused a chain reaction of financial markets - substantially higher dollar, New Zealand yuan / dollar surged pullback.
Technical analysis: New Zealand the previous day%26#39;s yuan / dollar on the map show that different. MACD indicators under wear 0 axis, RSI indicators in 26 regional slightly downward, random KD pointer in 37 regions downward trend. The previous day%26#39;s New Zealand yuan / dollar high of 0.7892 on the exploration decline after the lowest 0.7800. New Zealand is expected today yuan / dollar at 0.7840, if fully adjusted to the bottom of the region, will be lowered the support at 0.7700. Investors expected a downward correction.
Support at: 0.7700 resistance: 0.7840
Dollar / yen dollar / yen is expected to settle down, or see the first goal of resistance to 106.00 yen. The Commerce Department report Tuesday, the United States on April factory orders rise in the rate of 1.1 percent is expected to decline 0.1 percent. Data support the dollar / yen up. At the same time, Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke rare for the depreciation of the dollar risks to inflation warnings, at the same time that U.S. interest rates are well adapted to the growth and price pressures facing the threat of economic situation. Bernanke%26#39;s speech hinted that the Fed might keep rates unchanged recently, and further provides for the U.S. dollar gained momentum. Wednesday morning released the first quarter of the Japanese corporate capital spending fell 4.9 percent annual rate, the former value was 7.7 percent decline is expected to decline 9.6 percent, slightly better-than-expected data, supporting the yen.
From a technical level to see: from April 18 since the United States and Japan are 102.00-106.00 Xiang Tinei finishing this, the U.S. dollar on Monday after the pullback, yesterday began to rebound, up to 105.54. Today, short-term U.S. / Japan will still have rebounded, MACD indicators in the form Jincha 0 axis began to expand upward, 8,29,89 day MA-cutting after the rise upward, RSI on the line in 50 at the top level of walking.
Support level: 103.90 104.60 resistance: 106.00
Dollar / Canadian dollar / Canadian dollar is expected to settle down, see the first goal of resistance 1.0200 Canadian dollars. Tuesday the U.S. Federal Reserve (FED) Chairman Ben Bernanke on the weaker U.S. dollar issued a rare warning of inflation risks, Bernanke said the U.S. Federal Reserve Board and the U.S. Treasury Department is continuing to closely monitor the changes in foreign exchange markets, so that%26#39;s remarks The market was surprised, because the U.S. Federal Reserve dollar is usually not a speech, addition, the exchange rate appropriate at this stage, it seems that this year will not再减interest rates, the dollar rose sharply. At the same time, the sharp drop in commodity prices also hurt the Canadian dollar.
Technical analysis: the previous day%26#39;s dollar / Canadian dollar Yuanri line graph shows substantial gains, short-term multi may be bargain hunting. MACD indicators Jincha low, in-line gradually enlarge, RSI indicators in 76 regional power, progressive, KD indicators were up in the overbought region. Dollar / Canadian dollar exchange rate lowered the previous day%26#39;s lowest level 0.9966 after 1.0095 see the highest rise. Today, dollar / Canadian dollar 1.0000 in the region such as access to the top of the support, will be on the exploration of the resistance at 1.0200. Investors expect upward correction.
Support at: 1.0000 resistance: 1.0200
Dollar / Swiss franc dollar / Swiss franc is expected to settle down, or see the first goal of resistance to 1.0490 Swiss francs. Swiss Federal Statistics Bureau announced Tuesday, Switzerland May consumer price index (CPI) rose 0.4 percent on rate, the rate increased by 2.9 percent, a record since October 1993 a new high since the expected 2.4%. This data is suppressing the greenback fell. However, the United States on April factory orders rise in the rate of 1.1 percent is expected to decline 0.1 percent. The data also supported the dollar rose. Zhou Erbo Nanke is rare for the depreciation of the dollar risks to inflation warnings, at the same time that U.S. interest rates are well adapted to the growth and price pressures facing the threat of economic situation. Bernanke remarks boosted by the dollar sharply higher. U.S. stocks accident late because of weakness in risk aversion have a certain emotional upgrade, the U.S. dollar / Swiss franc Zigao point drop.
Technical analysis: the previous day%26#39;s dollar / Swiss franc Xianyihouyang, lowered support level after pulling up sharply, that short-term strengthening. MACD indicators 0 axis in the state have formed Jin Cha, RSI indicators in 53 regional slightly upward, random KD pointer Sicha down. Dollar / Swiss francs after 1.0273 the previous day lowered the minimum rose to the highest 1.0490. Today, dollar / Swiss franc at 1.0360 if support was at the top of the region, will be on the exploration of the resistance at 1.0490. Investors expected upward correction.
Support at: 1.0360 resistance: 1.0490
U.S. short-term or maintain the current level of interest rates -
The United States or because of the level of inflation rose to suspend a rate cut. The industry pointed out that the Fed monetary policy from the Greenspan era of change in order to maintain anti-inflationary economic growth and curb inflation coexist. In the U.S. economy is not out of the doldrums shadow of inflation has eased circumstances, the United States a short time or maintain the current level of interest rates.
Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke said recently, the interest rate policy has been to promote economic growth and price stability done a good preparation, and members of the Federal Reserve is monitoring the impact of the dollar down. U.S. Federal Reserve is working with the U.S. Treasury Department to carefully monitoring the foreign exchange market development, and recognizing that the dollar exchange rate and price inflation down to the expected consequences. This is the first time since Bernanke two months on the U.S. economic outlook speech.
Increased signs of accelerating inflation level is to suspend the Fed lowered interest rates. Since September 2007, the Fed has lowered interest rates seven times for a total of 3.25 percentage point rate cut. Currently, the Fed is trying to reduce the sub-optimal mortgage market brought about by the collapse of the damage, without endangering its control price level of reliability. Bernanke said that for now, it seems that the interest rate policy has made the promotion of moderate economic growth and price stability of the preparations. U.S. Federal Reserve will closely monitor the development of the situation, and do a good job, if necessary, take measures to achieve the dual mission of the U.S. Federal Reserve prepared.
CITIC built for researcher Huang Fu-sheng to Reuters that the Fed%26#39;s monetary policy from the Greenspan era curb inflation, changes in order to maintain economic growth and curb inflation coexist. Since the U.S. economy did not appear severe decline in the market expected, the Fed worried about the economy have eased, the focus from maintaining economic stability to curb inflation. April CPI was 3.9 percent, lower than the previous few months, inflationary pressures have eased some. In the U.S. economy is not out of the doldrums shadow of inflation has eased circumstances, the United States a short time or maintain the current level of interest rates.
Huang Fu-sheng pointed out that the current inflation rate of core problem is that the continued depreciation of the dollar, induced by the international crude oil, agricultural products, such as commodity prices rose sharply, thereby trigger a global inflation problem. Dollar from late April to begin a mid-term rebound in the dollar index rose to 71 from the current 73 around, this is also the market expected the U.S. economy super-a reflection. With the rebound in the U.S. economy bottomed out, while the European Union and Japan deepen the economic downturn, the dollar will continue to be legitimate strength.
Macroeconomic analyst at Societe Generale Securities Institute NIE Wen believes that increasing inflationary pressures in the circumstances, U.S. interest rates should have bottomed out, it is possible interest rate increase in the second half. Under normal circumstances, the U.S. response to the sluggish economy in Europe, 2001, 2007 SCF loan-to-crisis addition, excessive appreciation of the euro, the European economy more adverse effects from the first quarter of the data, the major European economic indicators appeared tired. As the European economic deterioration, the dollar interest rate increase may prompt dollar will gradually strengthen.
According to recent U.S. Department of Commerce report showed that U.S. economic growth in the first quarter annual rate of 0.9 percent, higher than economists had expected an average of 0.6 percent because exports rose to record levels. Bernanke said that second-quarter U.S. economic growth may be relatively weak after his April speech that the economy may be in recession. He pointed out that the second half of 2008 may to some extent a better economic situation, economic growth in 2009 may be further accelerated.
The euro against the dollar will start the second quarter of significant pullback -
1 Market Review:
Yesterday (June 3) Asian City time, the euro against the U.S. dollar closed at 1.5540 level, then the exchange rate slightly rose to 1.5560 high, then pull back to 1.5520 support, the European exchange rate before the city opened up to 1.5550 high. The dollar index trading hours in the 72.85-73.02 range of fluctuation.
European City time, the publication of economic data showed that euro zone first quarter after quarter-final quarter rate of GDP rose by 0.8 percent, expecting an increase of 0.7%. Eurozone April producer price index on rise in the rate of 0.8 percent, with the expected flat. Eurozone first quarter household spending rose 0.2 percent quarter rate, the fourth quarter of last year dropped 0.1 percent. Good morning by the euro zone%26#39;s first quarter GDP data, the euro rose to 1.5628 against the dollar the day higher, Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke delivered午盘tough remarks, the dollar strengthened overall index, the euro fell sharply against the U.S. dollar fast 150 points , Fell to 1.5445 low.
U.S. City time, the publication of economic data showed that the United States on May 31 the week Redbook retail sales rise in the rate of 1.9 percent. U.S. April factory orders rose by 1.1 percent, 0.1 percent expect a decline. U.S. April consumer durable goods orders fell a revised 0.6 percent rate, is expected to decline 0.5 percent. As Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke rare for the depreciation of the dollar risks to inflation warnings, the speech hinted that the Fed might keep rates unchanged recently. At the same time, the United States on April factory orders rise in the rate of 1.1 percent, is expected to decline 0.1 percent, also supported the dollar. Including the euro against the dollar early large declines, fell to the day low of 1.5410,午盘rebounded slightly to 1.5575 level, while the city of the euro against the U.S. dollar fluctuations in the 1.5430-60 range, the euro against the dollar yesterday closed at 1.5540, the highest 1.5628, the lowest 1.5410, Close 1.5433.
Second, this view:
Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke said yesterday that the depreciation of the dollar caused import prices and rising inflation, but policy seems to be inclined to promote economic growth and price stability. As Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke rare for the depreciation of the dollar risks to inflation warnings, the speech hinted that the Fed might keep rates unchanged recently. As Bernanke speech, the euro declined substantially, high and low points difference of about 218 points, is rarely seen in the recent decline. The market once again verify the author has repeatedly stressed that the euro will begin in the second quarter of a substantial pullback, I think, the dollar continued to strengthen the central line of the sign.
Today data, including the euro zone May services PMI index, the euro zone April retail sales rate. May the euro zone services PMI index fell to 50.6 the previous value of 52, the data will be negative euro. Eurozone retail sales in April on the previous rate of -0.4% to 0.2%, the data will be beneficial to the euro. Today from the technical and fundamentals are negative judgement of the euro, the euro continued signs of pullback.
Today, the euro zone and the United States concerned about data analysis:
(1) 16:00 euro zone May services PMI index, forecast 50.6, the former value of 52. Services sector purchasing managers index can show the development of the service industry, if the increased optimism that economic development, play a supporting role in the currency; reduce that development has slowed down, but if the value is greater than 50, said the service industry or in a state of expansion , But also to the good news. If less than 50, showed that the economy began shrinking, is bad news. If the currency is higher than expected a better supporting role, if lower than expected but also a good 50 more than just the currency does not constitute support. Services PMI data showed that euro zone growth prospects, but did not impact the manufacturing sector purchasing managers index important, if the data fall, the euro will be negative. May the euro zone services PMI index fell to 50.6 the previous value of 52, the data will be negative euro.
(2) 16:00 Eurozone retail sales in April, the rate forecast of 0.2%, prev -0.4%. Retail sales reflect domestic economic activity indicators, the numerical increase will be effective in stimulating economic development. The retail data determine a country%26#39;s economic situation and prospects of an important guiding role, as retail sales directly reflects the change in consumer spending. In Western developed countries, consumer spending usually accounts for more than half of the national economy, like the United States, Britain and other countries, this ratio can be accounted for two-thirds. It reflects social consumption and overall economic activity. The retail index higher social spending that full economic development potential,趋升interest rates, currency exchange rates趋升. Eurozone retail sales data show that the growth of consumer demand situation, if the data fall, the euro will be negative. Eurozone retail sales in April on the previous rate of -0.4% to 0.2%, the data will be beneficial to the euro.
Third, today concern the euro against the dollar and economic data events: (SGT)
1, this data:
15:50 French May services PMI index, forecast 50.7, the former value of 52.8
16:00 Germany May services PMI index, forecast 53.7, the former value of 54.9
16:00 euro zone in May integrated purchasing managers index, forecast 51.1, before the market value of 51.9 ★
16:00 euro zone May services PMI index, forecast 50.6, before the market value of 52 ★
16:00 Eurozone retail sales pace in April, predicted -0.8%, prev -1.6%
16:00 Eurozone retail sales in April, the rate forecast of 0.2%, prev -0.4% market ★
16:00 Eurozone retail sales in April, the former value of 108.9
19:00 United States on May 30 the week the U.S. MBA mortgage purchase index, the former value of 352.7
19:00 United States on May 30 the week the United States MBA refinancing index, the former value of 2013.5
19:00 United States on May 30 the week the U.S. MBA mortgage purchase index than weeks, before the value of 0.1%
19:00 United States on May 30 the week the U.S. MBA mortgage refinancing index than weeks, before the value of -8.9%
19:00 United States on May 30 the week the U.S. MBA mortgage applications index than weeks, before the value of -4.6%
19:00 United States on May 30 the week the U.S. MBA mortgage loan application activity index, the former value of 593.3
19:00 U.S. May Challenger corporate layoffs annum, the former value of 27.4%
2, economic events:
--- OECD Deputy Secretary-General Ge Liya and chief economist Jorgen Elmeskov will be published on the growth of the world%26#39;s major economies, the latest estimate - 15:30 report of the European Central Bank President Jean-Claude Trichet, in the 08 OECD Forum Published on climate change and economic growth of the speech - Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke invited to give a speech at Harvard University - 22:35 U.S. Department of Energy announced a week inventory
Bernanke effect of the euro-city renewal of consolidation waiting for the guidelines -
Asia Today morning, the dollar consolidating overnight gains access to a larger, the impact of Bernanke speech continue. Bernanke overnight rare warning to the weaker U.S. dollar, saying the weak dollar may push up inflation. This market interpreted as the Fed and the Treasury Department in collaboration and support a strong dollar. Also hinted that the Fed policy-tilt focus to inflation, the Fed lowered interest rates during the year the possibility of substantial reduction. Australia announced in Asia during the first quarter GDP, quarter rate of accidents increased by 0.6%, much higher than market expectations of 0.3 percent, the Australian dollar has strengthened. The euro, sterling and other currencies against the dollar in Europe will continue to remain at the top of the key support the consolidation and wait for further economic clues. Eurozone countries will be announced later purchasing managers index, the euro zone and Britain also will be published retail sales data, while the U.S. ISM non-manufacturing index and the ADP employment change in the market will be the focus of attention.
Today, investors should be aware that last night the Bernanke effect will continue to market today, I believe that after the London market will know what. In fact, the decision of a currency is based on the strength of its national economic performance, can not use mouth of control its direction. Bernanke last night on the dollar if the hawkish remarks made by the lack of real economic data to support, at best, only to have the effect of time, but if its is determined to intervene in it different matter. However, the other top of the central bank is willing to help? » If the Fed alone the power of their own, difficult to contend that the entire international foreign exchange market, therefore, the future trading of hedge funds or even provoke the Fed hand, in order to test their bottom line, then the dollar will become very volatile, Investors may also bring huge profits or losses, the city data, as market attention has shifted to the United States, is expected this afternoon, Germany, Britain and the euro zone%26#39;s services sector procurement published reports, and the latter%26#39;s Retail sales can be affected even if the euro or sterling exchange rate, but will continue to believe that New York trading, because of the aforementioned Bernanke effect, tonight the United States still ADP and non-manufacturing purchasing report, which will help assess Friday The employment data, which can be used as a measure of U.S. economic performance in one of the data. If these results are announced worse than expected, the dollar fell against or not, they may as Bernanke effect of positive reflection. Instead, once the results published by the positive for the dollar, expecting it against the currencies it is not difficult to create an even greater increases. As for the yen, remains to be seen the previous two trading days have been plaguing Wall Street performance of financial stocks will surge steady, to around U.S. Tonight loading, will also directly affect the direction of the yuan.
17:00 Eurozone April retail sales in May BRC 17:30 UK stores Price Index 20:15 U.S. May ADP employment in the United States in May changes 22:00 ISM non-manufacturing index for the euro against the dollar the euro against the dollar during the Asian Open today In the vicinity of 1.5440, the greenback periods in the basic maintenance of the 1.5420-60 range narrow range correction, the market remains on Bernanke%26#39;s speech to digest. The euro against the dollar late again or near the vicinity of the level of 1.5420, further lowered the risk low. With the Fed policy-tilt to inflation, the European Central Bank and the U.S. Federal Reserve may cut interest rate advantage, but if the euro zone economic data continued weakness in the euro against the U.S. dollar will make a new round of the decline.
Technical level, investors in support of the euro against the U.S. dollar 1.5330 and 1.5280, resistance is seen at 1.5460 and 1.5520. Today, the European sessions focus on the euro zone April retail sales. New York continue to pay attention to the U.S. May ISM non-manufacturing index, May ADP employment change, the U.S. crude inventories last week EIA data.
British pound against the dollar today in Asia, the British pound against the U.S. dollar fell moderately in early after-start sideways, after further reduce volatility, are still holding steady start intensive finishing 1.96. Britain announced early May consumer confidence index fell broadly in line with expectations, did not affect the pound. The recent weak performance of the British data, and the dollar%26#39;s rally, the British pound against the U.S. dollar has increased the risk of rebound Yuzu. Today, the United Kingdom will be published in May services PMI index and May BRC shop price. The euro zone will be published in April retail sales, the United States will be published in May ADP employment data, the first quarter of labour productivity and May ISM non-manufacturing index, and so on. In addition, the British central bank today started a two-day monetary policy meeting, market expectations remain unchanged.
Technically, British pound against the dollar since mid-March breakthrough pressure dropped after the start of horizontal shocks, in the weeks between MA plans fluctuations, held steady last week, K-Line MA five weeks, the trend neutral, and steady average pre-range high The host of 1.9650/00 should be able to maintain the trend of recent rebound, 30 week average and 50 percent back to the stall in the 1.9884 resistance to a strong, visible breakthrough in the vicinity of 2.0, otherwise rebound from being undermined, the exchange rate will be 30 on average to seek support around 1.9430 ; Exchange rate has decreased by two trading days, in the current range between 1.96-1.9750, some damage had been strong, days and days of technical indicators map weak, may continue to try again under 1.96, the exchange rate may be in the British interest rate decision before the central bank to maintain the The range of fluctuation, or they will increase the downside risk, the follow-up support see 1.9550,1.95; resistance: 1.9650,1.97,1.9750.
Dollar dollar today closed at 105.08 in Asia during the vicinity of the city to maintain the exchange rate in Asia a very narrow 104.93-105.29 range fluctuations. While credit losses was the question of the risk aversion sentiment rose to spur stronger yen. However, Bernanke%26#39;s speech helped the dollar rose to 105.00 yen at the top again. Today, New York continue to pay attention to the U.S. May ISM non-manufacturing index, May ADP employment change, the U.S. crude inventories last week EIA data.
From the fundamentals, the current U.S. dollar against the yen is still facing heavy selling at the top, there at the top of hearsay 105.50 Japanese exporters selling, and the resistance near 105.80 U.S. dollar against the yen for the recent breakthrough in the repeated cancellation of critical level. U.S. dollar against the yen may only need data led to new breakthroughs. Investors to support the dollar at 103.50 yen and 102.60, resistance is seen at 105.80 and 106.50.
U.S. dollar against the Swiss franc in early today in Asia, the dollar rebounded slightly against the Swiss franc, after the horizontal 1.0400/40 fluctuations between 5 and 30-day MA intertwined in the vicinity of 1.0420, the greenback around the place finishing, a moderate move up late, Was reportedly 1.0435. Today, investors, the euro zone will be published in April retail sales, the United States will be published in May ADP employment data, the first quarter of labour productivity and May ISM non-manufacturing index, exchange rate movements is expected to provide some guidance.
Technically, the dollar against the Swiss franc rebounded significantly last week, nearly a month since the return to the main range within weeks plans gradually cutting short-term average, indicators of the overall day technique to good, but gains are limited, the exchange rate may still be around 5-week average shocks, steady 10-week average below 1.0304 will remain since mid-March rebound trend, and then be gradually formed at the top of the small downward pressure on line constraints, involvement in this week in the vicinity of 1.0520, stronger resistance to see the top 30 week MA; The greenback is now cutting the number of average volatility, days and days of plans by the technical indicators are to improve, after consolidation in the exchange rate may continue to slightly upward, see initial resistance 1.0490, then 1.0530 resistance see, this bit is downward pressure on the line and last week high Point where; support: 1.04,10 day MA at 1.0364.
The Australian dollar Australian dollar against the U.S. dollar during the Asian Open today in the vicinity of 0.9523, the dollar had fallen below 0.9500 early trading, the minimum lowered to 0.9486. But then released by the Australian rate of a quarter-quarter GDP rose 0.6 percent, far better-than-expected 0.3 percent, the market accident Australian dollar also rebounded quickly since the lows, rose to 0.9570 level. While Bernanke%26#39;s speech formed to support the dollar, but the Australian dollar remained strong performance in other non-United States, shows that certain characteristics of strength.
From the fundamentals, commodity prices have began to appear overnight decline slightly, if inflation fell, the Australian dollar medium-term prospects may Piandan. Australian investors support at 0.9500 against the dollar and 0.9470, resistance is seen at 0.9580 and 0.9630. Today, the euro zone will be published in April retail sales, the United States will be published in May ADP employment data, the first quarter of labour productivity and May ISM non-manufacturing index, exchange rate movements is expected to provide some guidance.
USDCAD today in Asia after the dollar against the Canadian dollar to maintain a narrow range below the 1.01 level of consolidation, limited to the 1.0077-1.0098 range, the greenback was at 1.0093. New York crude oil futures on the 4th Asia fell slightly in early trading to 0.29 U.S. dollars, was reported to 124.02 U.S. dollars / barrel. This provides for the Canadian dollar increase in kinetic energy. Today, New York continue to pay attention to the U.S. May ISM non-manufacturing index, May ADP employment change, the U.S. crude inventories last week, EIA data, the dollar trend is expected to provide some guidance.
Technical charts show the dollar against the Canadian dollar sharply Elevated to return 1.0 checkpoints and bring the average. On the 5th MA Shui head wear on the 10th, 20-day MA, short-term average is up signs of divergence, the bottom line, MACD Jincha after continuing upstream, Hong Zhu continued to enlarge, RSI indicator rose to 60-75 strong regional, short-term exchange rate movements Stronger. Short-term exchange rate of a double bottom patterns, three consecutive trading days after the sharp Elevated temporarily blocked in the double bottom targets to measure the level of near 1.01, since then at 1.0324 target since the current downward trend in which the line near 1.0160, and Brin online 1.02 rail at the top level, but need to beware of the exchange rate started soaring after the amendment of the pullback, the 60-day MA at 1.0070 near the 100-day MA at 1.0050 nearby, 30-day MA at 1.0020 near key support in the 5, 200-day MA and cloth Lin rail line in the confluence of 1.0 juncture, held steady at the top of the shocks will continue to maintain the rebound pattern.
Europe early in the euro fell against the dollar Tiaokong -
Wednesday late morning in Europe, by the weakness of the euro zone April retail sales data suppressed, the euro / dollar fell slightly Tiaokong. -- As of 17:12, the euro / dollar at 1.5451/53.
Trend terms, because the U.S. Federal Reserve Board (Fed) Chairman Ben Bernanke%26#39;s speech against the U.S. dollar has begun to affect dissipated, on the 4th morning European trading, the dollar against major currencies taking part or because the market for financial institutions fear Continuing to leave and hedge market sentiment followed warming. In addition, the market is that although Bernanke comments sent the dollar, but the Fed can not direct intervention, the traditional market-driven factors play a role again.
The latest eurozone economic data showed that euro zone retail sales in April fell 0.6 percent rate, the lower-than-expected rise of 0.2; annual rate, fell 2.9 percent, also lower than the expected decline of 0.6%. Meanwhile, the notice also lowered the euro zone March retail sales data. Adjusted March rate of the euro zone retail sales fell 0.9 percent, previously reported 0.4 percent decline in adjusted annual rate dropped to 2.3 percent, 1.6 percent decline in initial value. The data caused the market to the euro zone economic growth prospects of concern, suppressing the euro weakness.
In addition, JP Morgan Chase today announced that Bank of continental Europe is expected first quarter of this year will further Chongjian assets of 9.5 billion euros, 07,08 in the bank total assets of 30.6 billion euros Chongjian, higher than originally expected a 24.9 billion euros.
OECD announcement said it expects the euro zone this year and next year GDP growth of 1.7 percent and were 1.4 percent, the organization of the 08 French economic growth forecast of 1.8%, Germany 08 and will GDP growth expected to increase by 1.8% To 1.9%, 09 from the 1.6 percent growth forecast down to 1.1 percent, a result of external shocks on the German economy may be lagging behind. The chief economist also said that to achieve the inflation target of 2 percent, the euro zone to slow down output, while the current euro zone monetary policy and reasonable, in addition, he also pointed out that the Federal Reserve and European Central Bank interest rates this year should be maintained Unchanged.
German commercial banks Wednesday said that the U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke (Bernanke) speech Tuesday to support a strong dollar and may continue to promote the dollar extended gains this week. The bank also said it expects euro / dollar 1.5485 uplink days in space is limited, while descending a key support of 1.5287 support. In addition, the bank added that the euro / dollar risk Pianyu down days, is expected May U.S. ISM non-manufacturing index may help the dollar%26#39;s rally, the bank economists now expect the index to rise to 52.0, after the market was expected to 51.0 . (Lifted)
European stocks weak dollar against the yen breaking 105 -
Wednesday morning in Europe, suppressed by the European stock market weakness, the market risk aversion sentiment rising, sets interest rate active trading positions, the dollar fell against the yen 105.00 juncture, the time lows touched 104.55. -- As of 5:54 p.m., the dollar was at 104.68 yen.
Overnight the dollar index speech by Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke supported rebounded sharply, but the current weakness shocks, but also against the U.S. dollar against the yen to a certain pressure. Royal Bank of Scotland (RBS) in charge of Japan%26#39;s Masafumi Yamamoto, currency strategist said that Bernanke speech is the key information from the Federal Reserve has been the focus of the economy to inflation levels. So the next time the Fed changes in interest rates may be more rate hikes rather than cuts. However, does not mean that the Fed will take immediate action. Prior to U.S. Treasury Secretary Paulson has more than one occasion that a strong dollar in line with U.S. interests, but failed to stop the dollar continued to fall. Bernanke%26#39;s speech and further expression of April G7 communique position.
In the U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke%26#39;s speech, the dollar against the yen may not rise further. Because from the fundamentals, despite Federal Reserve Chairman comment on the currency is very rare, bound to support the dollar effect. But the dollar needs a positive boost to economic indicators, or the effect of the speech will soon be digested by the market.
In addition, the Tokyo Stock Exchange Japanese financial retail foreign exchange margin trading Tuesday to cut the major currencies against the yen long positions, Monday hit in mid-2006 to buy a single day since the ultra-highest on record. Today, all seven major currencies against the yen in net long positions to reduce 13,142 to 212,461 hand in hand, the day before the increase was 89,990 in hand, an increase of 66%. These figures show that more and more keen on dealer short-term access to high-yielding currencies to buy dips and Feng Gao sold the action fast.
Dollar Japan announced the first quarter, corporate capital spending fell 4.9 percent, the fourth consecutive quarter of decline, better than the previous value of the quarter down 7.7 percent. Over the same period, corporate profits fell 17.5 percent, business sales fell 1.5 percent year-on-year. Rising energy prices erode corporate profits, coupled with weakening demand for foreign business investment will lead to Japan continued to drop. Japan%26#39;s finance minister Fukushiro Nukaga warned that the global slowdown in economic growth, natural resources if inflation is expected to raise prices, which may make it more difficult financial authorities to manage economic policy.
U.S. concerned about the evening of May ISM non-manufacturing index, due attention to the United States in May ADP employment. The latter part of the exchange rate is expected to provide guidance to the trend.
Eurozone first quarter economic growth has accelerated to some extent -
Eurostat announced on the 3rd of the data shows that first quarter of this year, the 15 euro zone countries than in the previous quarter economic growth of 0.8 percent, or faster than the fourth quarter of last year%26#39;s 0.3 percent.
Data show that first-quarter investment and exports is to promote economic growth in the euro area the main driving force. Among them, investment in the first quarter of the euro zone than in the previous quarter growth of 1.6%, export growth over the previous quarter of 1.9 percent.
At the same time, seasonally adjusted, the first quarter of the euro area economy than the 2.2 percent growth in the same period last year, an increase slightly higher than the fourth quarter of last year%26#39;s 2.1 percent.
Data also showed that the first quarter of the EU 27 countries compared to the previous quarter economic growth of 0.8 percent year-over-year growth of 2.5 percent. (Zhang Bihong)
Jean-Claude Trichet: the maintenance of price stability, ECB policy is still the focus -
European Central Bank (ECB) president Jean-Claude Trichet (Jean-Claude Trichet) Tuesday claimed that the European Central Bank will continue to firmly maintain price stability as the focus of monetary policy.
The European Central Bank announced in the content of the speech, Trichet said that the European Central Bank due to shoulder the mission of maintaining price stability, which will be resolutely to this goal as the center.
Jean-Claude Trichet said that at present the European Central Bank policy makers is in a quiet period that is, monetary policy meeting held in the week a policy not to comment. Therefore, his remarks should not be understood as the European Central Bank monetary policy management committee tendency signal.
4 this week, the European Central Bank Governing Council will convene a meeting. Since June 2007, the ECB has never changed its interest rates. In Thursday%26#39;s meeting, the European Central Bank will announce the euro zone central banks and the economy is expected.
Economists had expected the euro zone this year%26#39;s inflation rate is expected to increase in March announced the revised 2.9 percent.
European Central Bank%26#39;s definition of price stability refers to the medium-term average annual rate of inflation below 2 per cent in control. May this year, the annual rate of inflation for the euro zone%26#39;s initial assessment of 3.6 per cent.
Latin America difficult to jump "inflation Huoquan" -
Global inflationary pressures are gradually spreading to Latin America, the region has cast a shadow on the prospects for economic growth. Last year in Latin America, the average inflation rate of 6 percent, over the past five-year high. The highest inflation rate of Venezuela, Argentina and Chile were the three countries the rate of inflation reached 22%, 8.5% and 7.8%. Low inflation has been known to the current inflation rate of Peru also reached 5%, and Venezuela this year, the inflation rate is expected to reach 25.7 percent.
Latin American countries fueling inflation, a variety of factors both within and outside the result. First of all, this year, the international market of agricultural products such as oil and commodity prices increased, Latin American countries commodity exports and export earnings increased significantly. However, supply the domestic market has therefore been affected, the domestic agricultural products and basic commodities such as energy prices steadily higher. For this reason, some Latin American countries to increase government subsidies and export restrictions, but the effect is not obvious. Second, some Latin American countries relatively loose monetary policy contributed to inflation. This year, Brazil, Mexico and Chile and other countries in order to curb inflation has raised interest rates, but some other Latin American countries that inflation is caused by external factors, and therefore continue to maintain a more relaxed monetary policy. In addition, some Latin American countries excessive wage increase too rapidly, leading to wage - price, and spiral up. In addition, the international market to accelerate the influx of hot money in Latin America, large numbers of hot money exacerbated by the influx of some countries to inflationary pressures. This year, some of the major Latin American countries there are dramatic fluctuations in the stock market phenomenon.
Entrepreneurs Association of the United States-Latin American economic experts Simengdela Gochman noted that the Latin American economy is currently facing a priority to stimulate economic growth or inflation control priority of the policy options, if the Government of inflation in the early to take decisive measures, appropriate to raise interest rates And control of credit scale, it can ease the pressure on the prices up, the economy a soft landing. If the rapid rise in prices into the later stage to take control measures, like travelling to high-speed car Mengcai brakes, likely to cause serious consequences.
Ban Ki-moon: "twin-track" strategy to higher grain prices -
Ban Ki-moon that high grain prices to expand investment in agriculture provide a rare historical opportunity Xinhua / Reuters United Nations Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon on the 3rd, held in Rome on World Food Security on the proposed high-level meeting, the international community should be both short-and long-term implementation A two-track strategy to cope with rising grain prices.
Ban Ki-moon said that the international grain prices rose sharply a threat to everyone, particularly the more than 800 million poverty-stricken population most severely affected. He said that the international community should increase its food aid to poor countries, the impact of rising grain prices to help vulnerable people ride out the storm at the same time to time before the start of the planting season for the small-scale farmers in developing countries urgently to provide seeds and fertilizer, etc. Means of agricultural production.
Ban Ki-moon also said that the long term, the international community should address the structural constraints of agricultural development, especially in agriculture to ensure that small-scale farmers in developing countries, the long-term investment, vigorously push forward the construction of agricultural infrastructure.
Ban Ki-moon, to 2030, global food production must increase 50 percent to meet because of factors such as population growth and the increasing demand. He stressed that the current high prices for the expansion of investment in agriculture also provides a rare historical opportunity.
Ban Ki-moon also urged the abolition of some state grain export restrictions and tariff barriers such as agricultural trade barriers, so as to avoid rising fuel prices. He said that, in the face of sharply rising grain prices, some countries have taken measures such as restrictions on grain exports to deal with, but it will only distort the market, further pushing up prices. He called on relevant countries so as not to take such measures.
Ban Ki-moon also said that developed countries should eliminate trade in agricultural products in the global set of tariff barriers and market-distorting policies to the early completion of the Doha Round of WTO negotiations.
The three-day world food security high-level meeting in Rome on the 3rd opening, the meeting will focus on how to deal with rising global grain prices and ensure that the world food security and other issues.
Eurozone April producer price index continued to rise -
According to Eurostat data released on the 3rd, the euro zone in April this year, 15, the producer price index continued to rise.
Data showed that the euro zone in April, the producer price index last month rose by 0.8 percent, while year-on-year increase of 6.1 percent. Does not include the area of energy, the month the euro zone, the producer price index last month rose by 0.4 percent year-on-year increased 3.7 percent.
Data also showed that the 27 EU countries in April, the producer price index last month rose by 0.9 percent year-on-year increased substantially by 7.6%.
Producer Price Index also known as the wholesale price index, a measure of the important indicators of inflation. Since last year, the overall producer price index for the euro area has shown a rising trend. (Reporter Zhang Bihong)
U.S. manufacturing sector contracted for the fourth consecutive month -
According to a well-known U.S. research institutions recently announced by the Institute for Supply Management%26#39;s report, in May the U.S. manufacturing sector contracted for the fourth consecutive month.
The report showed that, of the Institute for Supply Management index of U.S. manufacturing activity in May to 49.6, higher than April%26#39;s 48.6 and the 47.9 analysts expected. The index is equal to or above 50 indicates expansion, below 50 indicates contraction in the industry.
From the breakdown of the index, May new orders index was 49.7, higher than the previous month%26#39;s 46.5, production index for the 51.2, higher than the 49.1 the previous month, the employment index was 45. 5, one month before to 45.4; price index to 87.0, 84.5 the previous month for the export index for the 59.5, higher than the previous month, 57.5; outstanding orders index for the 46.0 , Below the 51.5 the previous month.
The report showed that, the statistics are seven areas in May to achieve the growth, including computers and electronic products, paper products, primary metals, chemical products, food, beverages and tobacco products. Report of the month decreased in the areas of apparel and leather products, electrical equipment, wood products, machinery, plastic and rubber products, transport equipment and so on.
Manufacturing activity is the Institute for Supply Management index in the United States more than 400 industrial enterprises in the procurement and supply personnel in charge of the investigation, the U.S. manufacturing sector reflects the overall economic situation and an important indicator. (Hu Fang)
U.S. factory orders for the second consecutive month increase -
The U.S. Department of Commerce announced on the 3rd of the data showed that U.S. factory orders in April increased 1.1 percent, or slightly lower than the previous month, as amended, the 1.5% increase for the second consecutive month.
Data, computer and automotive such as durable goods orders in April fell 0.6 percent, or more than the previous month%26#39;s 0.2 percent. Of these, the total orders of durable goods accounted for more than a quarter of the orders for transportation products dropped by 7.8 percent, or more than the previous month%26#39;s 5.1 percent. If the removal of greater volatility of the transport orders for a product, the month factory orders increased 2.6 percent, with the increase in the same month.
Oil and non-food products such as durable goods orders in April increased by 2.8 percent, or slightly smaller than the 3.1 percent the previous month.
In addition, to reflect current market demand for factory shipments in April increased by 2.2 percent, an increase greater than the previous month to 1.1 percent the month unfilled orders increased 0.9 percent, an increase of less than one month before the 1. 3 percent; In addition, factory inventories increased for seven consecutive months after a slight decline.
Although the United States in April factory orders in better than expected, but according to well-known U.S. research institutions Institute for Supply Management recently released the findings of the U.S. manufacturing sector in May is still in contraction, and is the fourth consecutive month contraction. (Hu Fang)
Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke hinted that the Fed will not cut interest rates further -
According to the Hong Kong Wen Wei Po quoted foreign reports that the Federal Reserve that interest rates later this month, Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke has hinted that, because of worries of inflation, the Fed will not cut interest rates further. He added that high oil prices are double-edged sword, it will not only reduce the already weak economic growth, inflation will spread.
Bernanke via satellite to an international financial meeting of Spain delivered a speech, referring to a series of Federal Reserve interest rate cuts, coupled with Washington introduced measures to stimulate the economy, for the second half of the year should bring a better economic environment, now The policy seems to have good location, in a period of time is expected to bring moderate growth and price stability.
Last month, the Fed cut interest rates to 2%, Bernanke hinted that maintaining the current interest rates unchanged, the Fed should be sufficient to achieve two objectives, including sustained economic growth and prevent inflation. He acknowledged that the economic growth this quarter may be relatively weak, even reiterated that the Fed expected to rise to economic growth in the second half of 2009, but stressed that the economy is still faced with three major issues, including the property market downturn, credit and financial market volatility.
Bernanke said that unless the property market, there are clear indications stabilized, or will threaten economic growth, coupled with the recent rise in oil prices, growth decreased risk. He warned that if oil prices continue to rise, the inflation problem will worsen. He said: Inflation is still high, commodity prices may continue to rise, inflation is expected to bring significant risk.
OECD Secretary-General: the average global food prices remain high next 10 years -
According to Lianhe Zaobao reported that the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) Secretary-General Ge Liya (Angel Gurria) said yesterday: OECD predicts that food prices from the current water level dropped, but the next 10 years will average food prices than in the past 10 10-50% higher.
According to Bloomberg news agency reported, he told reporters yesterday also said that food prices in oil prices is an indispensable part of the organization is expected from the current oil price will not drop significantly. Ge Liya also said that oil prices may decline slightly, but the supply side there are still many uncertain factors.
Rome, FAO is currently meeting to discuss the agricultural commodity prices triggered by soaring world food crisis.
In the long-term global food prices low, many of the major agricultural products such as rice, corn and wheat prices rose substantially in recent months, some of the real prices of agricultural products rose to 30 to the highest level.
Japanese companies first quarter earnings dropped sharply -
Japan%26#39;s Finance Ministry issued on the 4th of the 2008 statistics show that from January to March, including manufacturing and non-manufacturing industries, the profits of all enterprises in Japan and the turnover of both the same period last year dropped substantially.
Statistics show that, due to rising raw material prices serious squeeze the profits of the enterprise space, Japanese companies first quarter pre-tax profits than the same period last year, a decrease of 17.5 percent, to 13.7548 trillion yen (about one U.S. dollars on 105 Million). This decline after the 2001 fourth quarter of 31.4 percent, the lowest more than six years.
At the same time, the retail trade and construction industry downturn affecting corporate performance, enterprise first quarter sales also fell 1.5 percent to 390.6315 trillion yen. This is the second quarter of 2002, Japanese companies revenue and reduce both the first turnover.
Statistics also show that a quarter of business investment in equipment to 16.8648 trillion yen, a decrease of 4.9 percent year-on-year, four consecutive quarter below the year-earlier level.
The Ministry of Finance pointed out that the current Japanese economic enterprises in the state of stagnation, adding the U.S. economic slowdown and stock and foreign exchange markets, oil market prospects are uncertain, Japanese companies increase the possibility of economic decline. (Yejia)
Eurozone finance ministers meeting failed to reach agreement by the fuel duty -
On the 2nd meeting of euro zone finance ministers in Frankfurt, Germany. Of the tax cuts failed to take measures to cope with high oil prices to reach an agreement.
It is reported that due to high international oil prices, French President Sarkozy proposed in Europe within the framework of gasoline and other fuel to reduce the capital gains tax to reduce the soaring oil prices adversely affected. In the meeting held on the same day, Germany, Spain and the Netherlands explicitly oppose Sarkozy%26#39;s proposal, while France insists that its tax cut stance.
Whether the high oil prices will have a negative impact on the euro zone%26#39;s economic problems, the euro Chairman of the Group, Luxembourg-Claude Juncker and European Commission responsible for Economic and Monetary Affairs Joaquin Almunia agreed that high oil prices would not lead to the European economy Growth stagnated. On the 2nd International Monetary Fund issued a research report pointed out that the international market soaring oil prices and financial market turmoil will not affect the euro zone this year%26#39;s economic growth trend, the organization will be the euro zone this year%26#39;s economic growth forecast from 1.4% increase To 1.75 percent. (At Raymond)
UK May consumer confidence index fell to the lowest four years -
British National Construction Association announced on the 4th of survey data show that the global credit crunch and rising energy and food prices exacerbated the economic prospects of concern, the United Kingdom in May consumer confidence index fell to 69, the lowest for four years. Last month the index was 70.
British National Construction Association chief economist Fionnuala Earley said that consumer confidence fell in May was mainly caused by high energy prices, food prices are still rising and the Bank of England rate cut time of uncertainty. (Lu Zheng)
Asia was the beginning of the city on the 4th U.S. dollar against the won fell -
Comprehensive foreign June 4, Asia was the beginning of the city on the 4th U.S. dollar against the Korean won fell to 1013.25 yen, before closing at 1016.9 won, traders said, because the drop in oil prices triggered foreign investors to sell the dollar in early trading. The exchange rate is expected to be won in 1010-1020 between the fluctuations.
A local bank, dealers said exporters settlement with South Korea and a heavy industry companies overseas orders related to the U.S. dollar selling may occur, and promote further the exchange rate lower. Another dealer said that with overseas investors on the 3rd Korea sold a net capital outflow related stocks may provide some support for the exchange rate. The yen against the Korean won won at 9.6506, before closing at 9.7516 won.
NT dollar is expected to move up on the 4th -
Comprehensive foreign June 4 reported that the NT dollar is expected to be high on the 4th, the dollar rose and the entire Taiwan market speculation, central bank to buy dollars. Dealers said that Taiwan%26#39;s central bank on the 3rd day of buying at least 1.2 billion U.S. dollars turnover in the scale of the one-third of U.S. investors to buy be hit.
In view of the Taiwan stock market%26#39;s strong performance continues to attract a large number of U.S. demand, the NT dollar gains may be limited. Standard Chartered Bank said, at least for now, the U.S. still has a certain kinetic energy; However, in view of Taiwan%26#39;s external demand slowed sharply, thus leading to a trade surplus and current account surplus narrowed further, the NT dollar is expected to lose the second half of kinetic energy.
The Dow Jones technical analysis revealed that the exchange rate of NT support in the first 30.175 yuan (April 2 low), followed by NT 29.996 yuan (nine-year closing low of NT the psychological level of 30.000 yuan). Resistance at NT 30.892 yuan (January to May fell 38.2 percent retracement of the market), followed by NT 31.094 yuan (March 4 high).
Hong Kong dollar is expected to have up on the 4th trend -
Comprehensive foreign June 4, the Hong Kong dollar is expected to have up on the 4th trend. Dollar strong performance in the global market, but have yet to be from the exchange rate of U.S. dollar against the RMB in the trend of access to the guidelines. Bernanke%26#39;s speech and the U.S. dollar Friday clearing the demand for dollars on the Hong Kong dollar boost. However, U.S. stocks lower overnight, the extent of the market panic Chicago Board Options Exchange volatility index breakthrough 20, in this case, hedge emotions will lead to reduced financing arbitrage trading, the exchange rate so that the upstream space is limited.
The Dow Jones technical analysis shows that the Hong Kong dollar resistance at 7.8067 Hong Kong dollar (January 29 high, January to May decline starting point), followed by 7.8135 Hong Kong dollar (January 21 closing price, the year%26#39;s high ). See support at 7.7877 Hong Kong dollar (April 14 low), followed by 7.7802 Hong Kong dollar (April 10 low, and 7.8000 Hong Kong dollar%26#39;s linked exchange rate level interchange).
U.S. dollar higher on the 4th morning at 30.375 yuan -
Comprehensive foreign June 4, on the 4th U.S. dollar was higher early trading, dealers said, after Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke said the dollar down U.S. inflation rate has led to unwelcome rise, showed that Fed will be postponed The determination of the dollar. No principal deliverable forwards market to strong demand. NT dollar against the NT dollar 30.375 yuan at the latest, on the 3rd NT dollar closed at 30.290 yuan.
Dealers said the market investors are still optimistic about NT, but on the 4th of them, there has been no good news, these investors are a little rest. The exchange rate is expected to see resistance at NT 30.400 yuan.
Asia City on the 4th U.S. dollar against 1.3690 Singapore dollars is expected to close Singapore dollars -
Comprehensive foreign June 4, the city on the 4th-dollar Singapore dollars on exploration may be a high point last week near 1.3690 Singapore dollars, dealers said, on the 3rd U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke issued a strongly worded speech, Dollar full support for the market to buy dollars confidence increased markedly since the euro%26#39;s decline cause for concern.
After his speech, Bernanke, the euro fell to 1.5410 U.S. dollars against the U.S. dollar near the lows. Dealers said that if the euro fell to 1.5320 U.S. dollars, Singapore dollars for the U.S. dollar against 1.3690 Singapore dollars pave the way for the breakthrough. U.S. dollar at 1.3650 Singapore dollars as Singapore dollars, up from late Asian trading on the 3rd of 1.3626 Singapore dollars.
The Australian dollar 0.945-lowered the opportunity to
According to Bank of Dafeng June 4 news on the 3rd New York trading, the U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke made comments on inflation, suggesting interest rate cut cycle coming to an end, the news, all soaring dollar, dragging the Australian dollar from a high level Rapid decline more than 70 points, to 95 cents a share during the surge will only near.
Investors, as the Australian dollar and U.S. dollar interest rate differential has narrowed the opportunity to start, is expected to speculative selling was under the influence of the Australian short-term have the opportunity to test support at 0.9450.
Resistance at 0.9550 0.9600
Support at 0.9450 0.9400
Euro down against the dollar have the opportunity to test 1.5330 support - the
According to Bank of Dafeng June 4 news, the euro trend repeated on the 3rd down. European sessions, the euro zone published the first-quarter gross domestic product slightly higher than market expectations, the news led the euro against the dollar as high as 1.5628 level. New York time, the U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke warned the weak dollar caused inflation to heat up, and hinted that the Fed rate cut cycle will end, all comments pushed the dollar higher, the euro thus make a U-turn to the steep decline in low of 1.5411.
Investors, since the market looking forward to the U.S. rate cut cycle coming to an end, I believe investors will gradually buy dollars, the euro against the U.S. dollar is expected to have the opportunity to test a downward support at 1.5330.
Resistance at 1.5500 1.5550
Support at 1.5400 1.5350
Bernanke speech impact of the euro remain weak-renewal of the city -
Asia City on the 4th session, the euro against the dollar following the overnight plunge after finishing launched low shocks, the latest reported 1.5444. The euro against the yen early to maintain 162 finishing at the top level, as reported 162.41.
Bernanke by the hard-line stance against the U.S. dollar and U.S. economic data are signs of rebound stabilize and jointly promote the overnight U.S. dollar against all major currencies and commodities rebounded strongly against the euro rose as high as 200 points once. Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke on the 3rd on the weak dollar for the impact of inflation warning, saying U.S. dollar against other currencies has led to the United States fell unwelcome rise in inflation and inflation expectations may be affected one of the factors. Exchange rate policy is the duty of the Ministry of Finance, as Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke%26#39;s first against the U.S. dollar exchange rate published hard-line speech that the Fed recognized that loose monetary policy is also one of the factors suppressing dollar and U.S. dollar exchange rate as may be Its future interest rate decisions in an important reference factors. Bernanke also said that the U.S. economy the second quarter economic growth may be relatively weak, but the second half and cut the tax rebate may play a role and the effect of an improvement; U.S. current standard rate for the economy to help deal with price pressures and threats to economic growth, suggesting Unless inflation is expected to further rise in house prices stabilize in a short time before the Fed might keep rates unchanged.
The overnight release of the U.S. on April factory orders rise in the rate of 1.1 percent, better-than-expected drop 0.1% in March factory orders, revised up to 1.5 percent. U.S. manufacturing expansion to accelerate and enhance the market for the U.S. economy will stabilize the expected rebound.
Europe, the euro zone on the 3rd announced the first quarter after quarter-final quarter rate of GDP rose by 0.8 percent, higher than the expected increase of 0.7% annual rate rose 2.2 percent, in line with expectations by rising energy prices to promote the euro zone April producer price index (PPI), or 0.8 percent, up 6.1 percent compared with March%26#39;s 0.7 percent, or up 5.8 percent continued to climb, the record annual rate is the highest. As food and fuel prices rose, the euro zone May inflation rate rose to 3.6 percent for 1992 to the highest level, and the inflation rate for nine consecutive months above the ECB%26#39;s target ceiling of 2.0 percent. Because of high inflation pressure, is widely expected European Central Bank will continue to maintain short-term interest rates unchanged, but this may give the European economy continues to create pressure; future economic aspects of weak data will eventually respond to the euro in to.
Management Committee of the European Central Bank, Bank of France governor Noah on the 3rd that if there is no salary spiral, and squeeze corporate profits space, the euro area, inflation pressures could stabilize at a high level after the rapid decline. If European economic slow-down pressure, while the dollar strengthened to suppress the bubble in commodity prices, inflation is expected to come down gradually in Europe.
From a technical perspective, short-term euro-dollar exchange rate to average down with repression shocks, the temporary support level of 1.54, below the rate in a 100-day MA lowered to 1.5325 may be near, the key support in the early low of 1.5286 around the initial rebound Resistance at 1.5460 and near the 1.55 level on the 5th average, the important resistance at 1.5550/75 range.
European investors time to focus on the euro zone April retail sales. New York continue to pay attention to the U.S. May ISM non-manufacturing index, May ADP employment change, the U.S. crude inventories last week EIA data. It is expected that these data will provide guidance to the euro exchange rate movements.
Asian cities to promote good data on the 4th Australian dollar rebounded slightly against the dollar -
Asia City on the 4th session, the Australian dollar against the U.S. dollar since the late renewal of the overnight trend of moderate decline, even, Australia announced robust first-quarter GDP performance, the Australian market eased the worries of domestic demand will help support the Australian central bank interest rate stance And stimulate the rapid rebound in Australian dollars, see high-0.9553, breaking on the 5th MA. -- As of 12:07, the Australian dollar against the U.S. dollar at 0.9556/58, up 0.38 percent.
The Australian Bureau of Statistics announced today that the Australian first quarter GDP seasonally adjusted quarter rate increased by 0.6 percent, beating market expectations of increased by 0.3 percent annual rate rose by 3.6 percent, also better-than-expected growth of 2.8 percent. Australia 07 fourth-quarter GDP growth of 0.6 percent from the previously revised up to 0.7 percent. In addition, Australia%26#39;s first-quarter consumer spending rose 0.6 percent rate in the first quarter, fixed capital investment increased 1.6 percent quarter rate. Australia first-quarter economic growth than expected, showing that the Australian economy in the face of high interest rates and life, the cost of production increased substantially, still has strong flexibility and vitality. At the same time, the Reserve Bank of Australia also increased the possibility of future rate hikes further. Australia GDP better than expected, showed that economic growth is still strong momentum, which eased the Australian domestic market demand concerns, the central bank will help Australia remain at a relatively high level of interest rates and inflation may rise to the occasion of further tightening Policy. Therefore, the data released after the Australian dollar was buying support. The Australian dollar is expected to rebound in the range is limited, or if the 0.9612 and 0.9652 are on trial or even higher chance.
Lehman Brothers (LEHMAN BROTHERS), the research director STEPHEN ROBERTS said that the Australian first quarter GDP data than expected. Although the Australian economy exposed to show signs of slowing down, but there is no market expectations of less serious. However, the economists feel that the Australian economy slowed down enough to stop the Reserve Bank of Australia to raise rates again STEPHEN ROBERTS said that the biggest surprise came from consumer spending and capital expenditures. This shows that the Australian people%26#39;s disposable income is still very strong.
National Australia Bank (NAB) chief economist ROB HENDERSON: Australia announced today the consumption and capital expenditure data than the local data show that the more powerful. This is a lagging indicator, it will not add too much to the Reserve Bank of Australia, but these data also made it clear that the Australian economy does not slow down significantly in the first quarter. Australian economy over the past 12 months the increase is still as high as 3.6 percent, exceeding the trend.
Commonwealth Bank of Australia (CBA), a senior economist MICHAEL WORKMAN, Australia-than-expected first-quarter GDP, the fourth-quarter GDP data have been revised. In addition, consumer spending has far exceeded market expectations, business investment is strong. This shows that the Australian economy is still very sound.
Western Pacific Bank (Westpac) strategy division said that while Australia better-than-expected GDP data, but Thursday in New Zealand before the Fed decision on interest rates, investors may still be reluctant to push too many high Australian dollar. Strategists pointed out that commodity prices may be Bernanke%26#39;s speech after more down, which will make Australian dollar selling in the near future to continue to increase, the proposed high short-Australian dollar against the U.S. dollar. Strategists expect the Australian dollar against the U.S. dollar period would not deviate from 0.9550 level.
U.S. dollar against the RMB on the 4th午盘higher at 6.9365 yuan -
Comprehensive foreign June 4, on the 4th U.S. dollar against the RMB exchange market in the Request午盘at 6.9365 yuan, 3 to close at 6.9250 yuan; current trading between 6.9320 to 6.9372 yuan.
Dealers said that the high exchange rate, the Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke delivered the three day and night helped the dollar%26#39;s speech support, but the market has calmed down. The exchange rate is expected to investors will continue to spiral in the price 6.9356 yuan from top to bottom.
Asia City on the 4th British pound against the U.S. dollar continued to Hengpan finishing -
On the 4th Asia-city early in the pound against the U.S. dollar fell moderately in early after the start sideways, after further reduce volatility, are still holding steady start intensive finishing 1.96. -- As of 12:06, the British pound against the U.S. dollar at 1.9632/35, down 0.08 percent.
British pound against the U.S. dollar fell moderately, a further narrowing in intraday volatility, finishing 1.96 to continue holding steady. Early rebound in the greenback will trend was destroyed, moved to the current range of 1.96-1.9750, the greenback may continue to try again under 1.96, the British central bank may keep interest rates before a decision had concussion situation, but fell below 1.96 could further decline.
Britain announced yesterday the data once again proves that the real estate market weakness. UK May construction activities to the fastest decline in history, the construction industry purchasing managers index deteriorated from April 70 to 69, in April 1997 for the biggest drop.
Yesterday Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke delivered a speech clearly shows that the Fed has changed the weaker dollar will help promote economic growth view, but that with inflation related to resist the negative impact is even more important. This has brought more dollars to support and stimulate the dollar buying. U.S. Federal Reserve on the idea of change in dollar policy, commodity prices will moderate inhibition, in particular, energy prices rose a strong trend, inflation is expected to decline to the overall U.S. economic recovery, but U.S. interest rates stabilize, it will be impossible to bring the real estate market To stimulate more, can not be bogged down in the real estate market to the crisis in the United States many financial institutions more dynamic, a challenge to the U.S. economy, including the need for the Fed, the U.S. government to put forward new policies or other measures to stimulate the U.S. Economic recovery.
The recent weak performance of the British data, and the dollar%26#39;s rally, the British pound against the U.S. dollar has increased the risk of rebound Yuzu. Britain announced early May the British Nationwide consumer confidence fell 1 point to 69, extending from September 2007 since the fall momentum and a record four-year low, roughly in line with expectations, not to the British pound against the dollar reflects calm. British National Construction Association announced the survey data show that the global credit crunch, as well as energy and food prices rose on improved economic outlook worries, the British consumer confidence in May from April 70 to 69, touched on May 04 to the survey Since the start of the lowest point.
Technical level, the British pound against the dollar since mid-March breakthrough pressure dropped after the start of horizontal shocks, in the weeks between MA plans fluctuations, held steady last week, K-Line MA five weeks, the trend neutral, and steady average pre-range The high point of 1.9650/00 should be able to maintain the trend of recent rebound, 30 week average and 50 percent back to the stall in the 1.9884 resistance to a strong, visible breakthrough in the vicinity of 2.0, otherwise rebound from being undermined, the exchange rate will be 30 on average around 1.9430 To seek support for exchange rate has decreased by two trading days, in the current range between 1.96-1.9750, some damage had been strong.
Today, the United Kingdom will be published in May services PMI index and May BRC shop price. The euro zone will be published in April retail sales, the United States will be published in May ADP employment data, the first quarter of labour productivity and May ISM non-manufacturing index, and so on. Today, the British central bank began a two-day monetary policy meeting, market expectations remain unchanged, but the recent weakness in housing data, mortgage lending institutions and the loss of consumer confidence data to the Bank of England rate cut expected substantial increase in the future.
NT dollar was slightly higher on the 4th午盘at 30.337 yuan -
Comprehensive foreign June 4 reported that the NT dollar on the 4th午盘slightly higher, due to Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke said earlier that the dollar%26#39;s depreciation has led to the U.S. rate of inflation unwelcome rise.
Dealers said Bernanke%26#39;s speech hinted that Fed still support a strong dollar policy. NT dollar rose to 30.337 yuan, from the intraday high of 30.384 yuan, on the 3rd closed for 30.290 yuan. Trading was light, in view of Taiwan%26#39;s central bank on the 3rd may enter the market to buy large number of dollars, many traders are waiting for the bank%26#39;s further intervention.
Dealers said the rate rise is only a temporary phenomenon, the trend seems to be optimistic about the dollar today, but is still facing inflationary pressures; Taiwan%26#39;s central bank still hope that the U.S. remain strong. The remainder is expected today in the dollar fluctuated between NT 30.300-30.350 yuan.
Asia City on the 4th U.S. dollar against the yen intraday high inertia shocks -
By The Nikkei and driven overnight U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke%26#39;s speech inertia effect, in early trading on the 4th Asia, the U.S. dollar higher against the yen exchange rate shocks. -- As of 12:30, the U.S. dollar against the yen at 105.17.
BNP Paribas noted that Bernanke%26#39;s comments overnight very rare, because the Fed almost never make a direct comment on the dollar. Bernanke is likely to stand in the position of the U.S. Treasury Department made the above statement, which could signal the Fed and the U.S. Treasury Department will further increase cooperation, including in support of the dollar on the issue. The bank also said that the dollar will support the Fed%26#39;s monetary policy strategy, and reliable. The bank further pointed out that the U.S. dollar against the yen dropped to 103 to 104 region will be the opportunity to buy Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke%26#39;s unexpectedly weak dollar on concern the comments, which caused the foreign exchange market analyst at between arguments. Morgan Stanley analysts said the Fed and the U.S. Treasury Department has issued U.S. dollar may interfere with the signals from the market now to respond, and the dollar could trigger intervention decreased dramatically. Royal Bank of Canada is an analyst in a report that Bernanke may be to retain the possibility of a rate cut, because the U.S. economic downturn has not eliminate the risk. Let the market that the Fed rate hikes seem to be premature. The UBS analyst pointed out that in June 13 to 14 in Osaka, Japan at the Group of Eight (G8) meeting of finance ministers, will be the next major event risk.
Japan%26#39;s finance minister Fukushiro Nukaga said Wednesday that if adopt the correct policies and measures, the global economy will remain strong, and higher inflation expectations may affect the management of monetary policy. He also said that the upcoming G-8 finance ministers meeting, G8 finance ministers will discuss the problem of soaring commodity prices.
From the disk, the dollar rose on the 4th morning, the high point see 105.25/30, as The Nikkei rose, lifted many of the yen cross. But the dollar against the yen at the top is still strong resistance, the overnight high of 105.50 to 105.57 in the region are at the top of heavy selling. The more significant selling in the latter part of 105.75 to 106.00 in the forefront. At the same time, with stops at the top of 105.60, 106.00 in large stop-loss at the top. Below 104.00 to 104.90 support in the region, more support in the 104.50 to 104.40 range.
European investors time to focus on the euro zone April retail sales; New York continue to pay attention to the U.S. May ISM non-manufacturing index, May ADP employment and demographic changes in the U.S. crude inventories last week EIA data. Expect the dollar against the yen exchange rate movements will gain guidelines. (Lifted)
Asian foreign exchange markets on the 4th U.S. dollar against the yen basically the same -
Comprehensive foreign June 4, on the 4th Asian trading, the dollar little changed against the yen, the U.S. Federal Reserve Board (Federal Reserve, referred to Fed) Chairman Ben Bernanke (Ben Bernanke) has helped the dollar on the eve of the speech, investors Choice of waiting for more U.S. data.
4:50 GMT, the dollar was 105.12 yen. At 105.50 yen at the top there are a lot Japanese exporters sell orders, dealers said the currency rally is expected to be limited until later on the 4th.
The euro at 1.5456 U.S. dollars, the New York foreign exchange market at 1.5461 U.S. dollars.
Okazaki three securities (Okasan Securities) senior dealer said Tsutomu Soma, Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke on the exchange rate issue of the rare comments, and indeed has provided support for the U.S. dollar, but holding the dollar if the current favorable momentum, but also require The support from economic data.
In his speech, Bernanke said that the U.S. dollar against other currencies has led to lower U.S. inflation unwelcome rise to the level of the dollar%26#39;s decline may also promote the expected rise in inflation as a factor.
His speech also demonstrates the Fed is unlikely to cut interest rates further, it also boosted the dollar.
Japan%26#39;s finance minister Fukushiro Nukaga (Fukushiro Nukaga) in a speech that Bernanke%26#39;s speech is based on U.S. inflation worries, does not mean that the G-7 countries (G7) of the unanimous view.
Although Nukaga refused to comment on U.S. monetary policy, but he believes that Bernanke%26#39;s speech is based on the current situation in the United States made.
Market participants will focus then shifted to the U.S. economic data, including Automatic Data Processing and Macroeconomic Advisers released in May employment data and forecast the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) non-manufacturing index.
The economists surveyed expect the U.S. May non-farm payrolls number will be reduced by 60,000 people; ISM 5月份non-manufacturing index is expected to slightly dropped to 52 last month%26#39;s 51.1.
In addition, the Australian dollar jumped against the yen, the Australian economic growth stronger-than-expected promotion.
The impact of a favourable economic situation, the Australian dollar against the yen rose to a session high of 100.64 yen. Traders have said that the exchange rate is expected to rise further.
The Australian Government announced on the 4th of the data shows that the country this year, 1-3 in the gross domestic product (GDP) growth of 0.6 percent the previous quarter, representing a year-on-year growth of 3.6 percent.
Soma said the dollar did not rise substantially, the euro, the recent increase in the loss of kinetic energy, including the Australian dollar, high-yield commodity currencies seems to be a better choice. He expects Australian dollar against the yen to 101 yen soon will be.
Traders said the currency%26#39;s strength could also give the euro against the yen and other currencies brought a degree of support.
Asian foreign exchange markets on the 4th Australian dollar sharply higher against the dollar -
Comprehensive foreign June 4, the stronger-than-expected first-quarter economic growth boost, the Asian currency on the 4th, the Australian dollar against the U.S. dollar sharply higher, off early lows.
Economists said the Australian first quarter GDP means that Australia is still in the coming months the possibility of raising interest rates.
06:15 GMT, the Australian dollar at 0.9564 U.S. dollars, from the morning low of 0.9488 U.S. dollars, 3 to close at 0.9538 U.S. dollars. The Australian dollar 100.60 yen, up on the 3rd of 99.33 yen.
Australian market had expected first-quarter economic growth slowed sharply, but the published data show that Australia first quarter gross domestic product (GDP) growth than the quarter of 0.6 percent year-on-year growth of 3.6 percent.
4 the new Asian currency yuan against the U.S. dollar lower -
Comprehensive foreign June 4, on the 4th Asian market, Singapore dollars against the U.S. dollar lower, mainly due to the U.S. Federal Reserve Board (Federal Reserve, referred to Fed) Chairman Ben Bernanke (Ben Bernanke) 3 published his speech, said the dollar%26#39;s sharp decline Triggered a worrying inflationary pressures.
U.S. dollar at 1.3650 Singapore dollars from late Singapore dollars, 0.0024 Singapore dollars higher than the previous day.
Traders have said that the exchange rate will depend on the future direction of the economy are some events, such as on the 6th release of the May non-farm payrolls data.
U.S. dollar against the RMB on the 4th higher at 6.9440 yuan late -
Comprehensive foreign June 4, the RMB against the U.S. dollar lower late on the 4th, three day and night because of the U.S. Federal Reserve Board Chairman of this. Bernanke (Ben Bernanke)%26#39;s speech pushed the dollar in the international market strength.
Traders said Bernanke%26#39;s speech clearly support the dollar, if the factors continue to support the dollar in the overseas market%26#39;s performance, then the rest of the yuan gains this week or will be suspended.
Request trading market, the dollar against the RMB on the 4th late at 6.9440 yuan, higher than that on the 3rd closing price of 6.9250 yuan. In dollars after 6.9320 yuan to 6.9449 yuan interval fluctuations.
U.S. dollar against RMB yuan in 6.9356 yuan, higher than that on the 3rd of 6.9295 yuan.
U.S. dollar against the yen on the 2nd EU dropped to 105 in intraday level below -
European cities on the 2nd session, the dollar lower against the yen quickly fell below the 105 level. Dollar opened lower open Tiaokong fear, then rebounded to cover the gap, after disruption to 105.52, the greenback in early European city to turn down sharply, as low as 104.75 temporarily stabilize, as of 17:25 - the dollar Against the yen at 104.82/86. The overall rate is still in consolidation range, short-term may be difficult to shake off the current pattern.
Dollar Japan announced in April, including overtime and allowances, cash income of workers increased by 0.6% year-on-year to 281,246 yen, rising for the fourth consecutive month. But salary increases may be difficult to touch the country%26#39;s inflation, the consumer spending in Japan%26#39;s economic growth limited support. Bank of Japan%26#39;s former vice president of a political Iwata also said that due to the sharp increase in raw materials, oil and food prices, the Japanese economy in a very difficult stage. Japan%26#39;s Cabinet Office released the afternoon of the first quarter GDP gap from 07 in the fourth quarter rose to +0.3% +0.7%, confirmed that the Japanese government in the confrontation with the deflation of the progress made.
The United States announced last Friday in April personal consumption, or 0.2 percent, in line with expectations; personal income, rose a seasonally adjusted 0.2 percent, higher than expected, up 0.1 percent. Personal consumption expenditure price index, rose 0.2 percent, up 3.2 percent. On the core index rose 0.1 percent, up 2.1 percent. U.S. consumer spending growth easing, but the growth was the increase in prices offset by the impact. May Chicago Purchasing Managers index for the 49.1, better than the April forecast of 48.3 and 48.0, it is still the fourth consecutive month in honour of below 50, suggesting a contraction of economic activity status. U.S. May University of Michigan consumer confidence index from April%26#39;s 62.6 to 59.8, is the fourth consecutive month decline, and in June 1980 to the lowest level since. Dollars the same day because of lack of good data support, but failed to tackle breakthrough range limit.
Technical charts show the dollar against the yen on the test range near the ceiling Yuzu significantly lower after 5-day MA rose steadily, basically the same as the medium-term average. The current exchange rate overall is still in consolidation range, short-term may be difficult to shake off the current pattern, initial support at the 10th, 20 and 30-day MA at 104.25 glue, then 103 support level, strong support in the range limit 102.60. Initial resistance at 105.70/85 range limit, Brin into orbit in this region, the only effective break-in order to shake off Duokong balanced posture, strengthen the dollar further rise in energy and subsequently resistance 106.50.
Investors in the United States today announced later in May the Institute for Supply Management manufacturing activity index and Friday%26#39;s U.S. May non-farm payrolls number will wait and see. The dollar is expected to provide guidance to investors.
Risk aversion sentiment surge in the yen rose sterling fell -
U.S. stocks tumbled because of the risk preferences of investors suppressed emotions and trigger sets interest rates substantially open trade, boosting the yen Monday all up. At the same time, due to slowdown in the housing market, manufacturing the verge of shrinking the edge, and a major British mortgage lender, a profit warning, all British pound fell against the dollar may be a month to hit the biggest one-day decline.
UK%26#39;s largest rental purchase (buy-to-let) loan to Bradford - Bentley Bank (Bradford %26amp; Bingley) of the British mortgage market conditions issued a serious warning, and said that the first four months of this year, a loss, and also Emergency financing for lower stock prices. The European stock markets fell suppress news, investors curbed the risk of emotional preferences, the Japanese yen in European hours on Monday have all gained.
By Bradford - Bentley bank warned the news, the U.S. fourth largest bank-Watt Bridge Wei Bank (Wachovia Corp) and the dismissal of its chief executive officer of the U.S. Institute for Supply Management (ISM) data released negative impact of U.S. Open All the way after the sharp decline, after decreases once reached 200 points, further suppressing the risk of emotional preferences, to help the yen against the dollar in New York or time to continue to expand.
ISM released data showed that U.S. May ISM manufacturing index to 49.6, continues to shrink the state in May from the prices paid index rose to 84.5 last month of April 2004 the highest since 87.0.
The Standard %26amp; Poor%26#39;s debt rating agencies (Standard %26amp; Poor%26#39;s) Monday lowered the Lehman Brothers (Lehman Brothers), Merrill Lynch (Merrill Lynch) and Morgan Stanley (Morgan Stanley), several well-known investment bank%26#39;s rating, the source drag午盘New York, U.S. stocks fell further.
Yen in preferred cooling of the risk to attract buying because investors to lift the yen for the financing of capital transactions sets interest rates.
International payment and global currency service providers Lu Sike International Inc. (Ruesch International) currency strategist Joe Manimbo said: The yen continued to rise in New York, extending the time risk aversion sentiment in Europe triggered by renewed gains.
Royal Bank of Canada (RBC Capital Markets), senior currency strategist Matthew Strauss said: Britain%26#39;s bad news for the emotional risk aversion rise again, so all the yen rose, and the British pound weakened significantly.
◎ the British housing market and the financial sector due to concerns fell pounds Bradford - Bentley British mortgage bank issued a serious warning market conditions, coupled with a data showed British mortgage lending in April a record number of permits a minimum level, causing investment To the British housing market and financial situation of the field level of concern, thereby suppressing sterling sharply lower Monday.
Bank of England released data Monday showed that British mortgage lending in April a record number of permits lowest level, while consumer lending has nearly six years the slowest rate of growth.
British mortgage lending in April fell to the number of permits since the 1999 record low of 58,000, in March to 63,000. UK April consumer borrowing increased 7.3 billion pounds, an increase of June 2002 to a minimum, in March to increase 7.9 billion pounds.
By the British Association of Purchasing and Supply and NTC jointly prepared by the purchasing managers index (PMI) in April from 50.8 in May fell to 50.0, below the consensus forecast of 50.5 and created in July 2005 has been low.
While analysts generally expect the situation will not repeat Nuosenluoke Bank (Northern Rock) mistakes, but the latter has been the scene runs on clients or investors Houpa, so traders are selling pounds. Nuosenluoke was the UK%26#39;s largest mortgage lender, due to the impact of the U.S. credit crisis, Nuosenluoke Prior to nationalization.
HSBC Bank (HSBC) branches in the United States said in the report, Nuosenluoke in trouble and the British housing market continued deterioration of the risk, will become the country%26#39;s financial system loans and wider issues facing the greater, so obviously today%26#39;s news Triggered market jitters.
Analysts believe that Monday%26#39;s news is unlikely to affect the British central bank%26#39;s monetary policy decision, the central bank still expected to keep rates unchanged at 5.0 percent, but the next few months the risk of a rate cut has increased.
Deli Jia Hua Securities (Dresdner Kleinwort Wasserstein), today released data showed that British economic recession in the United Kingdom increased risk. The agency said in a report: Today, any of the economic data will not change this week%26#39;s interest rate decision, in particular the PMI data further confirmed that rising inflation. But if the job market started weak, the Bank of England rate cut pressure Rapid build-up, we insist that in 2009 first quarter the Bank of England rate cut to 4.25 per cent of the target.
Scottish banks (Bank of Scotland), chief currency strategist Steve Pearson said that since the British banking sector pessimistic about prospects for Sterling under pressure. The macroeconomic context, the housing market and consumer-led economy is deteriorating, which also adversely sterling exchange rate.
-- 3:35, the dollar / yen at 104.39/43, sterling / dollar at 1.9654/57.
On the 3rd Asian city after finishing the yen shocks -
Japanese trust banks because of dollar-buying support, the U.S. dollar against the yen in early trading on the 3rd Asia slight concussion of 104.35 after the rebound from top to bottom and from the days low. -- As of 12:40, the dollar was at 104.60/63 yen exchange rate.
From the disk, the Common Fund from Japan and the bond dealers buying also supported the dollar, in the meantime, some Japanese importers bought dollars because they think U.S. dollar against the yen is unlikely to decline from current levels.
Part of the current market focus has begun to shift to the Japanese economy, particularly in the Bank of Japan Governor Baichuan Fang-ming made it clear that the recent downward risks to the economy as a backdrop, the Japanese central bank has been raising interest rates do not have a hope. According to the Center for Economic Research forecast data released Monday, April Japan%26#39;s real GDP fell 0.3%, mainly by the weak consumer spending and drag down exports. Also according to Cabinet Office data, a quarter of Japan%26#39;s real GDP by 0.8 percent quarter. However, according to The News of the calculations, the economic entities in Japan have been the third consecutive month decline, GDP in the last three consecutive decline in 2001 from July to October, when the Japanese economy into a recession already. Accordingly, analysts said although the yen overnight by the risk aversion of the emotional impact of increased strength, but because the Japanese economic downturn or even recession fears increase, the yen may once again under pressure.
Separate data showed Japan%26#39;s margin traders last week, a substantial decline in net short yen, the dollar against the yen since a week ago, long 80.9% to 64.1%, the data also showed that bond traders tend to range trading, to buy high-low Selling, the strategy locked in profits. Despite the relatively rapid change in the direction of some surprising positions, but taking into account the recent volatility of the market and the performance of the interval, the data will change easy to understand. According to data, the yen cross trading range at least until last Friday.
In addition, the Fed%26#39;s dollar index compiled in March of this year dropped to 13 to a low of 78.993, has rebounded 2.5 percent to 80.993. Street Bank macro strategist Michael Metcalfe said that institutional investors are gradually increasing dollar bulls. In his view, the dollar will rebound, but the speculators betting the dollar%26#39;s depreciation will be surrendered. The dollar held pessimistic views of the investors believe that inflation will accelerate the increase in the suppression of economic rebound, according to the twin deficits will bring tremendous pressure.