The euro against the dollar in New York opened slightly lower after a rebound in Tandi. New York City early in the euro exchange rate of 1.5828 near the open, quickly lowered in time low of 1.5804 after sustained rebound in the final to finish at 1.5836 compared with Thursday closing price fell 25 points, or 0.16 percent.
Economic level, the German Federal Statistics Office reported Friday, Germany in June producer price index (PPI), by 0.9%, 6.7% by year, expected to increase 0.7 percent on year by 6.5 percent. This data reflects the euro zone%26#39;s largest economy Germany increased inflationary pressures, European Central Bank increased to maintain the hardline stance of monetary policy is expected. EU Statistical Office (Eurostat) reported Friday, 15 members of the euro zone foreign trade deficit in May total 4.6 billion euros, the April trade surplus of 2.5 billion euros, year-on-year trade surplus of 1.4 billion euros. Economists expected May trade deficit of 1 billion euros.
The United States, Citigroup reported better-than-expected earnings and brokerage ratings up banking stocks, eased the market to the United States worried about the deterioration of the financial industry. The largest U.S. banks Citigroup Inc. announced Friday, Citigroup second-quarter loss of 2.5 billion U.S. dollars, amounting to a net loss of 0.54 U.S. dollars per share, loss less than expected. At the same time, Citigroup will be the rating on Merrill Lynch raised to buy, Lehman also raised its rating of JP Morgan, Citigroup, Deutsche Bank raised its rating.
European Central Bank President Jean-Claude Trichet said Friday even if the euro zone economic growth may slow down in the third quarter, control of inflation expectations are still very important. According to Jean-Claude Trichet, the ECB%26#39;s basic view is that the euro zone economy in the third quarter of a turning point, the economy will return to moderate pattern of development. At the same time, the Italian central bank governor Dela Ji Friday in a speech at Dublin, also said that the surge in oil prices led to increased inflation risk, but the measures taken by the central bank is expected to help reduce inflation. Dela Ji said that in the past few months, the spillover effect has been more moderate and potential inflation also continued to drop, but inflation risks increased. Dela Ji pointed out that there are indications that the internal speed up the production costs rise, medium and long-term inflation expectations have tended to rise.
Technology, the euro against the dollar Friday on the 10th MA lowered moderate rebound, but again Yuzu five-day MA shows that short-term up more resistance. MA showed the current system with long, multi-technical benefit. If investors effective on the break 1.5950, the greenback may again at the top to 1.6000 attack. If the average down below on the 10th, the exchange rate of 1.6000 in the medium-term double top at the top to build the risk will increase. Resistance is seen at the top of investors against 1.5895 and 1.5945, followed at 1.5765 and then 1.5635.
Today, the United States will be published in June Chicago Fed National Activity Index and the United States in June leading indicator of the Chamber of Commerce, is expected to provide some guidelines on exchange rate movements.
7/21/2008
New York City on the 18th Tandi rebound in the euro against the dollar
New York City on the 18th dollar continued to move up
Dollar lower against the yen in New York opened higher, slight concussion, or 0.05 percent at 106.98 Xiaofushougao than Thursday closing price rose 70 points, or 0.66 percent. U.S. dollar against the yen since Wednesday over a one month low of 103.77 after last week, after a half weeks has rebounded more than 300 points.
News level, the Bank of Japan announced Friday July 12 to 13 minutes of the meeting show, the Bank of Japan Committee members agree that the global economy is facing a high degree of downside risk point of view, the reasons for the difficult financial markets and the U.S. economy to a standstill in the world Miwuchongchong economic prospects. The central bank said several members of the Committee, taking into account Japan%26#39;s slow growth in wages, compared to the risk of price increases, should be more concerned about the downside risk for the Japanese economy. Central bank governor said Friday Baichuan Fang-ming, the central bank on economic downside risk and inflation risk given the same attention, which confirms the central bank%26#39;s policy of neutrality.
The United States, Citigroup reported better-than-expected earnings and brokerage ratings up banking stocks, eased the market to the United States worried about the deterioration of the financial industry. The largest U.S. banks Citigroup Inc. announced Friday, Citigroup second-quarter loss of 2.5 billion U.S. dollars, amounting to a net loss of 0.54 U.S. dollars per share, loss less than expected. At the same time, Citigroup will be the rating on Merrill Lynch raised to buy, Lehman also raised its rating of JP Morgan, Citigroup, Deutsche Bank raised its rating.
However, the U.S. economic cycle Institute (ECRI) Friday said its measure of future U.S. economic growth and the week leading indicator of growth in the last week both fell, the latter dropped to two month low, and still show the U.S. economy Facing recession. Data shows that the United States on July 11 when the weeks leading indicator dropped to 131.2, weeks before a revised 132.3, previously reported 132.5.
Wall Street Friday stable trend, the Dow closed up about 43 points, to 11,489 points in the vicinity. To create a low of 10,827 points, the Dow has rebounded more than 600 this week, the Dow rose 3.55 percent, a more than three months of the week, the biggest gain. This reduced risk aversion sentiment, a substantial increase in demand for transaction sets interest rates.
Technology, the dollar lowered the 100-day MA after Tandi rebound, three out of K-Line, Yang Lian, and a series of breakthroughs 10, 20 and 30-day MA of repression, lifted the average system with a short anti - Pressure. The current exchange rate is approaching the 200-day MA, if effective on the break of the resistance, the short-term exchange rate may again attack to 108.60. Downlink, if the break key support 105.00, the greenback may open a new round of declines. Resistance is seen at the top of investors against 107.10 and 107.75, followed at 105.80 and 105.00 while.
Japan will announce today the supermarket sales in June, the U.S. June Chicago Fed National Activity Index and the United States in June leading indicator of the Chamber of Commerce, is expected to provide some guidelines on exchange rate movements.
New York City on the 18th British pound against the dollar 1.980 finishing bottom of shocks
New York City on the 18th session, the British pound against the dollar since the low of 1.9907 in Europe since the rebound trend,午盘after finishing the greenback narrow range of shocks. British pound against the dollar opened at 2.0037 Friday, at 1.9976/80, 130 days fluctuations, fell 66 points, or 0.33 percent. -- As of 3:57, the British pound against the U.S. dollar closed at 1.9971/76, down 0.06 percent.
Last Friday, the British Bureau of Statistics announced in June the short poor balance of payments report. The results showed that in June balance of payments for poor short +155 100 million pounds, +92 net borrowings to 100 million pounds. These two figures were higher than expected, but sterling reacted little. Subsequently, the British Chancellor of the Darling announced a new spending guidelines, investors speculated the British Government will increase borrowing. Reported that the British Government borrowing is moving to break the existing plan - the highest of GDP 40% direction. Western Pacific Group chief currency strategist Sean Callow pointed out that in the data, the market emerged on the British pound selling, but it will continue this momentum. He also said that the Ministry of Finance to do so may mean that the British economic situation is worse. Affected by this speculation, the British pound against the U.S. dollar fell about 100 hours of points. But the British Ministry of Finance denied this time in Europe, sterling rebound. According to the British Financial Times quoted sources as saying that the new framework will allow the government to break the public sector debt ceiling.
Market that the Ministry of Finance this might mean that the British economic situation is worse. Britain%26#39;s public finances worsening, the British Government may be forced to take very loose fiscal policy. According to Financial Times reported late Thursday, the British Government is to amend some provisions to facilitate the economic slowdown of the increase in borrowing.
Jifu, deputy governor of the Bank of England said on the 18th, the credit crunch has been offset by the British central bank last lowered interest rates three times the effect, in the formulation of monetary policy should consider this factor, and the credit crunch is likely to intensify, if only to consider this issue, The central bank will continue to cut, but should also take into account a substantial rise in commodity prices, making high inflation on a global scale spread. He also said that the Bank of England will try its best to balance the inflation risk and credit crunch caused by the economic downside risk, the rate of inflation fell to the medium-term objective. These remarks hinted that the short term are still inclined to the British central bank to leave rates unchanged, support the pound rebounded.
Technical level, British pound against the U.S. dollar to close at length under the shadow of small Yinxian, the 200-day MA after breakdown after pulling up was strong, recovering the key 1.9950 level. The exchange rate for three consecutive trading days by the 200-day MA support, shows the strong support of the MA system and a strong pattern have not been destroyed, investors still expected the 200-day MA wave rose out of market. Sterling was at the top resistance at 2.0040 and 2.0100, below support at 1.9950 and 1.9905.
Moderate concern Monday will announce the United States in June leading indicator of the Chamber of Commerce.
New York City on the 18th Australian dollar Chonggao down
New York City on the 18th session, the Australian dollar was finishing pattern of shocks, after the greenback higher modest, the greenback fell to 0.9700 late nearby. -- As of 3:57, the Australian dollar against the U.S. dollar closed at 0.9703/06, up 0.09 percent.
New York trading yesterday the United States announced the June consumer price index, rose 1.1 percent, or 5.0 percent, higher than expected, or 0.7 percent, or 4.5 percent, the monthly rate for June 1982 the biggest rise since annum for 1991 May the highest level since. On June core CPI rose 0.3 percent, or 2.4 percent, slightly higher than expected, or 0.2 percent, up 2.3 percent. U.S. inflation data showed further deterioration of the situation, taking into account the recent financial market turmoil intensified, so that the already precarious U.S. economy worse, the market worried about the U.S. economy to the stagnation the risk is growing. Later the United States in July NAHB single-family homes sales index fell to 16, showed that U.S. housing construction to confidence in the market down to a new low.
Last Thursday evening announced the JP Morgan Chase财报显示, its second-quarter net income fell 53 percent to 20 billion dollars, or 0.54 U.S. dollars per share, better than expected, helping to alleviate the financial industry to the U.S. market and economic concerns; At the same time the United States overnight, or employment and housing data than expected, oil prices fell for the third day and fell below 130 U.S. dollars / barrel, the dollar and U.S. stocks continue to rise. But later released by the Merrill Lynch财报显示, and the second-quarter net loss of 4.89 billion U.S. dollars, for the fourth consecutive quarterly loss and loss amount is higher than expected, in addition Google, Microsoft and corporate earnings is not expected to reduce or suppress dollars.
Last Friday the United States no major economic data, Wall Street and commodity price movements to determine the Australian dollar. Citigroup Inc. Friday announced second quarter earnings better than expected, easing the credit market to the United States worried about the worsening crisis, and this has supported the dollar slightly, Lee desalination Australian dollars. Spot gold decline Friday stabilize, since one week low of 949.50 U.S. dollars / oz rebounded to 959.20 U.S. dollars / oz, the Australian dollar provided some support.
Australian Dollar on Friday announced the second quarter of the export price index rose 13.5 percent quarter rose 13.3 percent, over the same period import price index rose 1.4 percent quarter rose 3.5 percent. Due to strong global demand for raw materials. Australian Finance Minister Sivan then said that despite weak consumption so that the current slowdown in economic growth in Australia, but the commodity boom will support the Australian economy continued to grow.
Technical level, Australian dollar against the U.S. dollar in early high of 0.9650/75 at the top continued to support the interval, K-Line pulled out on the 5th Cross-Star, showed that short-term adjustment of the exchange rate weakened. But on the 5th MA continued to deviate from 10 and 20-day MA, MA indicators overbought, there are still technical amendments requested. At the same time, since the 0.8510 trend line intact, medium and long-term gains pattern remains unchanged.
Moderate concern Monday will announce the United States in June leading indicator of the Chamber of Commerce.
New York trading on the 18th dollar rebounded against major currencies
Citigroup%26#39;s good news enhance market confidence, on the 18th New York trading, the dollar rebounded against major currencies, and stabilize the oil market and the stock market also provided support for the U.S. dollar.
Comprehensive foreign July 18 reported that the U.S. banking giant Citigroup Inc. (Citigroup) announced lower-than-expected second-quarter loss and further ease the market to the United States fear the financial industry, on the 19th New York trading, the dollar against other major currencies all rebound .
Following the Wells Fargo (Wells Fargo) and JP Morgan Chase announced earlier this week after the performance, Citigroup%26#39;s earnings also added to the market a positive message. The news not only pushed the dollar higher, as well as the stock market into optimism.
Citigroup announced on the 18th, involved in the credit market and the economic downturn led to the deterioration of the write-down of assets and credit losses, the second-quarter loss of 2.5 billion U.S. dollars, but a loss of less than market expectations. Citigroup second-quarter net loss of 0.54 U.S. dollars, Citigroup analysts had expected second-quarter loss per share of 0.67 U.S. dollars.
However, analysts doubt U.S. dollars from the stock market can continue to get better support, because the recent stock market rally by the main performance reports to promote, and the expected performance although not so bad, but still very poor.
Electronic trading system, the future New York City, 18, the euro was at 1.5838 U.S. dollars, on the 17th to 1.5830 U.S. dollars late, the dollar was 106.96 yen, on the 17th for 106.68 yen, the euro was at 169.40 yen, on the 17th for 168.87 yen. The pound was 1.9972 U.S. dollars, on the 17th to 1.9995 U.S. dollars, the dollar was 1.0225 Swiss francs, 1.0228 Swiss francs late 17.
U.S. stocks rose sharply in the past three days on the 18th after quiet trading market, crude oil futures prices have also maintained a tight range as investors digest on the 3rd largest decline in oil prices after the impact.
On the 18th stock market movements and stability so that foreign exchange market risk preferences warming, leading to low yield of the yen against the euro and the dollar fell.
On the 18th British pound fell after the British National Bureau of Statistics (UK Office for National Statistics) announced that 08 to 09 the first three months of the year the government budget deficit hit a record quarterly high. In view of the British economy in sharp decline, the news deepened the market for the British public worry about the financial position of the
European City early on the 18th dollar higher against the yen
The rise in energy costs and European stock markets close below the former fell further affect the market sentiment hedge warming, on the 18th in early trading in Europe, the U.S. dollar higher against the yen, the highest intraday exploration to near 106.46.
Dollar fell in Asia Friday by Merrill Lynch-quarter loss larger than expected, investors sold to promote the impact of risk assets. Merrill Lynch announced财报显示overnight, its second quarter loss of 4.5 billion U.S. dollars, the credit crisis since the impairment reached 40 billion U.S. dollars. Japanese bond dealers Gaitame.com director of foreign exchange Tsuyoshi Ueda said that the credit crisis is still the most foreign exchange traders worried about the issue, Merrill Lynch earnings would trigger the market to other financial institutions earnings will be weak speculation. At present the focus of concern to investors Friday of Citigroup%26#39;s earnings, if his larger-than-expected loss, the dollar could fall sharply.
A major Japanese importers Finance director said that the recent U.S. dollar against the yen volatile, in a trading day down 200 points is not unrealistic. Other analysts also agree with the view that the dollar rose to 107.00 yen may not be at the top. And HSBC Bank foreign exchange sales manager said Kosuke Hanao, in addition to the credit crisis, investors in the stock market and oil prices remain close attention. As long as crude oil and continued volatility in the market, the dollar will not be able to effectively held steady. In addition, the Japanese stock market%26#39;s decline put pressure on the dollar, due to the decline in Japanese stocks may imply that U.S. stocks will appear later dropped.
Options market, the dollar and stabilize the stock market rebound in Asia, prompted investors to sell dollar hedge the risk of options, the Tokyo foreign exchange market Friday, the U.S. dollar against the yen exchange rate options implied volatility low. Merrill Lynch earlier today announced second-quarter loss exceeded the amount economists expected, leading to the sharp decline in U.S. dollars. However, U.S. stocks higher Asian stock markets led the market higher on easing U.S. fears the banking sector crisis, a boost to the dollar, market and sell to hedge the risk of dollar options.
On the 18th time in Europe, the new round of buying and weekends to support the United States worried about the weather, crude oil futures rose more than e-two U.S. dollars, at 131.33 U.S. dollars / barrel. Market analysis, three consecutive trading days have been down so that market participants are likely to reverse the energy market atmosphere, and demand for crude oil is still concerned about the issue. However, dealers on the weekend expressed concern about the weather conditions, and the Gulf of Mexico oil-producing areas of inclement weather, the oil price surge is still one of the risks. The U.S. National Hurricane Center said that the Caribbean is concerned about the weather map on the 3rd, the chart shows are likely to form a tropical cyclone.
European city on the 18th Australian dollar dropped slightly against the dollar
On the 18th EU-city, Australian dollar slight retracement. -- As of 17:39, the Australian dollar against the U.S. dollar closed at 0.9721/26, up 0.33 percent.
The Australian dollar rebounded slightly in Asia trading, after the trial on the 5th MA near Yuzu 0.9727, the greenback in early European city fell back to near the 0.97 level, as reported 0.9709. Probe into Australian dollar against the euro to 1.6274 stabilize after the rebound. International spot gold moderate rebound.
Asian foreign exchange markets of Australia announced the second quarter of the export price index rose 13.5 percent quarter rose 13.3 percent, over the same period import price index rose 1.4 percent quarter rose 3.5 percent. Due to strong global demand for raw materials. Australian Finance Minister Sivan then said that despite weak consumption so that the current slowdown in economic growth in Australia, but the commodity boom will support the Australian economy continued to grow.
North American trading yesterday the United States announced on June housing starts rose 9.1 percent, down 26.9 percent to a seasonally adjusted 1.066 million units, better-than-expected 960,000 sets. Shows that the U.S. housing market is not as bad as expected, but it is worth noting that, since New York City building code changes and the rise in accidents, but to remove adjustment, housing starts fell still. As of July 12 the first week for unemployment benefits rose by 18,000, to 366,000, an increase of better-than-expected 34,000 people. Have indicated that the labor market stabilize. At the same time, jobless claims more than one week%26#39;s sharp decline in the total number, but still the second consecutive 12-week hovering at 300 million people around this juncture that the unemployed find new work of the cycle than a few months ago, was prolonged. Data overall positive, driven wide stronger dollar. U.S. July Philadelphia Fed business outlook index for the -16.3,6 on to -17.1, manufacturing activity in the area for the first eight months of contraction.
Western Pacific Bank (Westpac), an analyst pointed out that the Reserve Bank of Australia%26#39;s tightening cycle may have ended, but faced the CPI rose because of the risk still exists, it is expected that the Reserve Bank of Australia in 2009 before the end of a rate cut will not take action to drop The earliest possible interest in 2010. These analysts believe that next week, Australia announced the second quarter CPI is the most important market concern, the overall CPI is expected to be quarter by 1.2 percent, by 4.5%. In addition, Australia will be announced next Monday PPI data. The bank that, in view of increased risks facing the CPI, the Australian dollar is still down when buying opportunity.
Technical level, Australian dollar from 25 to a high point for the 2nd callback market. On the 5th and up to the MA-, medium-MA also slow down or speed. Exchange rate of the overall trend is still strong side, short-term rebound blocked on the 5th MA 0.9730, and effectively break up the line to enhance the momentum was 0.98 resistance level. The current exchange rate held steady at above the important support at 0.9650/60, as the pre-resistance, after the break to support, 5-day MA also in the region, maintain its reservation on the Australian dollar will regain the opportunity to rise . Instead it means that the exchange rate may fall further to 20-day MA of 0.9617.
Stocks continue to pay attention to this trend on the foreign exchange market.
European city on the 18th British pound fell sharply against the dollar
On the 18th European city after the market%26#39;s concerns on the banking industry continues to suppress sterling weakness, the British pound fell against the dollar after hitting a low of 1.9907 during the current slight rebound. -- As of 17:37, the British pound against the U.S. dollar closed at 1.9961/65, down 0.11 percent.
The Financial Times reported that the Ministry of Finance officials seek to amend the British Prime Minister Brown (Brown) the development of consumption, lending criteria. Officials are specific changes to the guidelines to study, first of all, the measure may be introduced in the context of economic slowdown in the opening of more borrowing. The newspaper said the details may be modified in the draft this fall. This market will increase by the British Government debt is expected to heat up, the dollar fell against the pound. But the British Treasury spokesman said the rumors purely speculative.
Reported that the British Government borrowing is moving to break the existing plan - the highest of GDP 40% direction. Ministry of Finance is currently awaiting the British Bureau of Statistics will be published in September forecast economic growth of a revised, this value will help define the end of the current economic cycle time.
Western Pacific Bank (Westpac Banking Corp), a senior currency strategist Sean Callow said that the reports support the selling of the pound, this trend seems to be continuing. He added that the Treasury may take such measures at this stage that the fact that the situation is desperate, the British economy must be in a state of considerable distress.
International foreign exchange market yesterday, the dollar shocks, the dollar remained relatively strong support by many factors. The two major U.S. mortgage lenders Fannie Mae and premises stabilize stock prices rebound in the United States, the United States in June housing starts rose 9.1 percent in June building permits rose 11.6 percent. July 12 the week the first time jobless claims 366,000 people are expected for the 380,000 people. But to be concerned that the June housing starts data exist particularity, if the United States to remove the northeast of households in new housing estates data, the U.S. June housing starts dropped 4 percent.
Today, European time, the United Kingdom Bureau of Statistics announced in June the short poor balance of payments report. The results showed that in June balance of payments for poor short +155 100 million pounds, +92 net borrowings to 100 million pounds. These two figures were higher than expected, but sterling reacted little.
Technical level, a large European bank dealer Friday that if the British pound against the U.S. dollar continued to decline, then a lot of long stop-loss is expected to be set up at 1.9850 below, since the previous wave of Shenglang bit is the key support of the traders At the top of the proposed buy-pound, and stops at 1.9840 below.
On the 18th Hong Kong dollar ended lower at 7.7976 Hong Kong dollar
Comprehensive foreign July 18, on the 18th Hong Kong dollar ended lower as investors out of the U.S. financial industry are worried about their long dollar positions lock in profit. The exchange rate closed at 7.7976 Hong Kong dollar, at 7.7996 late on the 17th Hong Kong dollar. Earlier on the 18th, the Hong Kong dollar is fixed at 7.7976 Hong Kong dollar.
Traders expect the U.S. economic outlook in view of the uncertainties is putting pressure on the dollar, the dollar will remain in the 7.7950-7.80 short-term Hong Kong dollar within a narrow range of fluctuation.
Change in Hong Kong late on the 18th silver overnight interbank rate 1.20% +2 basis points in January BOC Hong Kong interbank rates of 1.81% +9 basis points in March BOC Hong Kong interbank rates of 2.15% +7 basis points a year in Hong Kong Interbank Offered Rate 2.99% +3 silver Basis points 2-year Exchange Fund Notes 2.22% +7 basis points in 10-year Exchange Fund Notes to 3.54 percent the same period one year Hong Kong dollar forward or 10 * -398
Dollar / Hong Kong dollar spot exchange 7.7976 or 0.0020
* Trading price differences in value
Exchangeassessment: the yen after venting retrial under
Last weekend, the loan-to-crisis entered a more volatile phase: Following the collapse of a bank again, the United States, Fannie Mae and U.S. mortgage showed a substantial risk, the loan-to-crisis can be said to the fourth stage, to the whole financial U.S. economic fundamentals and the market spread and trigger a comprehensive dollar weakness. Earlier this week, the dollar index continuation of the trend last week, the recent record low of 71.31, then after the impulse, because the United States and the world%26#39;s major financial markets, if it can not be controlled, not only is the stock market, the global financial system will inevitably affected. Therefore, the United States should not allow two-room bankruptcy, the Ministry of Finance and the U.S. Federal Reserve also announced a relief mortgage lender Fannie Mae mortgage and the United States and other aid programmes. Risk of temporary release, the dollar index gradually recovered lost ground. Currently at 72.20 dollars around.
From K-Line, the dollar index has a double bottom posture, short-term rebound opportunities exist. But the downward trend line is still declining, not walk-ping, that the rebound in the dollar index will continue to space for the time running, but the downward trend of the original line running down gradually, gradually close to the current position, the opportunity to gradually approaching . The current support level and pressure is at 71 and 72.50 respectively.
The loan-to-the outbreak of the crisis, the global impact of the sharp decline in the stock market, profit is certainly the largest low-interest yen currency. In the common multi-role, from 108 yen against the dollar to 103.75 Exploration Along the way, this bit is 20 weeks of location, is also the yen against the dollar to 108.80 from 95 Huidang, 61.8 percent of the Huichou. After venting, the Japanese yen against the U.S. dollar fell to 106.20 again near the location. After the rise of the yen position has been basically empty for the clearance, on trial again have the opportunity to 108.80.
From the trend, MACD still following up 0 operation, the medium-term average take-and thus tend to next week the yen against the U.S. dollar will remain stable in the interval running, interval limit 108.80 and 105.20 compared with threshold, operation, tend to 105.65 in the vicinity For air, and do more in the near 108.30 yen against the dollar.
The above comments, for reference purposes only
WTO miniministerial meeting today Qimu Highlights banana trade and food prices
WTO mini-ministerial meeting held in Geneva today. Meeting is expected to last one week, will continue to discuss agriculture, non-agricultural market access, dispute settlement and trade and development in areas such as the key topic.
Chinese Minister of Commerce Chen Deming was left Beijing on the 19th led a delegation to the Geneva meeting. Chinese delegation also includes Vice Minister of Commerce Yi Xiaozhun, Vice Minister of Agriculture Niu Dun as well as the Ministry of Commerce, Development and Reform Commission, Ministry of Finance, the Ministry of Agriculture and other concerned officials.
The United States, the European Community, India, Brazil, China and other WTO members over 30 will send a delegation to attend the meeting. WTO Director-General Pascal Lamy called the meeting to promote agriculture and nonagricultural these two core issues of the talks make a breakthrough by the end of this year to lay the foundation for negotiations.
View of the current Doha Round negotiations remain deadlocked situation, and Chen Deming stressed that the Doha Round of the need to coordinate the interests of all parties achieve a balanced outcome. Chinese farmers lower income and therefore will take full account of the negotiations between the farmers livelihood of some agricultural products.
By the end of May early June, Chen Deming to attend the 14th APEC trade ministers had pointed out that developed countries should take effective measures to cope with higher food prices, including a shortage of food to the developing countries to provide emergency food aid.
WTO Director-General Pascal Lamy said the Doha round of six years after arduous negotiations, is near the end of the current stage, is the top priority in agricultural subsidies, tariffs and other agricultural and industrial products on the crucial issue of a breakthrough as soon as possible, and promote the overall progress in the negotiations.
Observers believe that the talks a breakthrough in the difficult issue of the banana trade. To prevent the Geneva meeting without results, Lamy proposed a compromise last week, asked the EU to gradually reduce the Latin American countries banana import tariff, while Latin American countries should also pledge not with the EU court, in exchange for lower tariffs. Last week the European Commission Pascal Lamy has declared its readiness to accept the compromise. (Shen Yanfei)
International Monetary Fund is expected to increase economic growth in Latin America
International Monetary Fund (IMF) has released the World Economic Outlook update report noted that the organization raised the Latin American economic growth is expected this year, while warning that inflation remains the Latin American economy is currently facing the biggest challenge.
The report pointed out that although the world financial market shocks and inflation plagued the first quarter of this year in Latin America better-than-expected economic performance this year, the Latin American economic growth is expected to reach 4.5 percent, than the forecast in April increased by 0.1 percentage points.
The report pointed out that Mexico%26#39;s economic growth rate this year is expected to reach 2.4 percent increase over the previous forecast of 0.4 percentage points. As adjusted to take timely measures such as bank interest rates, effective control of inflation, Brazil%26#39;s sound economic performance, economic growth this year is expected to reach 4.9 percent.
However, the international market for Latin American products to slow down demand, increase in general and Latin American countries affected by factors such as bank interest rates, the report said that in 2009 the Latin American region will slow down economic growth, expected growth rate of 3.6 per cent.
IMF officials in charge of Latin American affairs Kelin warned that the current Latin American economy is not the greatest challenge facing the financial market turbulence but prices continued to rise, the Latin American countries must guard against inflation out of control. (Hu Honglei)
JeanClaude Trichet: the third quarter after bottoming out of economic rebound in the euro zone
European Central Bank (ECB) president Jean-Claude Trichet pointed out recently, the euro zone economic growth faces downside risk, second and third quarter economic growth may be weak performance may arise after the rebound.
Jean-Claude Trichet said: We expect the basic fact that this year the second and third quarter of the euro zone economic growth will reach the bottom, will be followed by gradual return to moderate growth levels. Facing the euro zone economic growth downward risks include severe adjustment of the financial markets , Oil and commodity prices may continue to rise and global financial imbalances. He also said that in the future will not change in the rate of prior commitments, but will take appropriate measures to maintain the medium-term price stability.
EU Monetary Affairs Joaquin Almunia before the Commission said euro zone inflation is expected to fall next year to nearly 2 percent, but the region still exists the risk of stagflation. Despite the risk of stagflation, and I am worried, but I hope we can avoid this difficult situation. Almunia, the EU second-quarter slowdown in the pace of economic growth, inflation and market uncertainty will Have an impact on economic growth. (Huang Meeting)
U.S. crisis borne of European countries
Last year at the economic turmoil in the world outside of Europe was not spared. Spain, Ireland and Denmark, or have been involved in, or at the brink of recession. Economic stagnation in Italy, France is rapidly debilitating, and the engine of economic growth in Europe Germany, suddenly broke the majority of people think that Europe can avoid the drastic changes in the U.S. economy remaining hope. According to the European Economic Research Center released a survey of German investor confidence has plunged to the lowest point in history.
Spanish housing market as the first major casualties, the coming downturn is the sluggish stock market, a real estate developer for bankruptcy protection against creditors. In the United Kingdom, as elsewhere in Europe, as food and fuel prices surged, the rate of inflation increased to 3.8 percent. The London-based Deutsche Bank chief economist托马斯迈耶said: We have witnessed the European mutation, all the world%26#39;s bad news eventually come to our heads.
Most economists forecast in Europe would be the U.S. financial market chaos and the major economic ills of the collateral effects, the actual rate of deterioration of the situation so that these prophets dumbfounded. In a recent June, Meyer also stressed that the European Central Bank is expected second-quarter economic growth will be slightly lower, but now the risk has become Europe may face this summer, the contraction in the economy. In this sense, Europe found itself closer to follow the steps the United States, the United States has been in a serious recession.
Germany is also China%26#39;s cold fever strong euro and high oil prices are the root causes of Europe into trouble. The tense atmosphere in the U.S. economy prompted investors to sell the dollar into the euro to seek asylum. Despite the dark clouds over, but still looks like Europe after the United States - of Fannie and premises of the United States and solvency concerns in the United States has created a wide range of market panic - a safe haven.
The euro exchange rate and oil prices brought about by rising costs, the final of Europe%26#39;s exports machines to pay the price. Germany%26#39;s exports in May from the previous month dropped by 3.2 percent, the trade surplus from 18.8 billion euros down to 14.4 billion euros. As to China and other fast-growing economies in exports of machinery and capital goods, Germany is to maintain the momentum of the last major European country. However, due to a crisis of the United States to stop TV procurement from China and other commodities that China be reduced to the German machinery orders, a sudden, German companies loaded with the orders become empty.
Giant harm the housing market bubble Spain Britain miserable first by the United States the impact of the crisis, the city shattered and severe inflation National Bank difficult, caught in a dilemma. However, with Spain still be relatively moderate compared. With a time of serious housing bubble was Ziyoulati movement, Spain is likely to fall into recession this year. Spain and the United States is very similar to a hard landing, but in Spain in a much faster. Madrid, a brokerage firm%26#39;s chief economist Jose Carlos said. Spain in the city through a long period of prosperity after the adjustment is inevitable, but the crisis suddenly may cause social unrest, truck drivers have started strike. In order to reduce the impact of the collapse of the housing market, the Spanish government budget surplus has recently introduced a fiscal stimulus plan, which may reduce the impact of global crisis. But Carlos said: The problem is that we are in Spain complicated situation, in a complicated situation in the world.
Survey: France gap between rich and poor was expanding trend
Although the French implementation of high taxes, high welfare policy, but the gap between rich and poor in recent years have gradually expanded the trend. The latest data show that in 2006 the most prosperous years of the French per capita disposable income of the poorest is 3.41 times that of the French people.
French National Statistics and Economic Research Institute announced on the 18th of the latest survey results show that in 2006 the richest 10 percent of the French years per capita disposable income of 33,190 euros, the poorest 10 percent of the population, per capita disposable income of 9,720 euros The two sides income ratio of 3.41 to 1. 2004 and 2005, the two sides revenues were 3.14 to 1 and 3.37 to 1.
France in 2006 per capita disposable income of 17,600 euros, compared with 2005, an increase of 1.7 percent. Living below the poverty line of the French people to 7.9 million, accounting for 13.2 percent of the total population, its per capita disposable income of less than 880 euros.
In addition, living in single-parent families of French people in poverty significantly higher proportion of the population. Has 30.3 percent of the poverty-stricken people living in single-parent families, this ratio is 2.3 times the other crowd. (Lu-Jun)
Economic Digest of the international event: the WTO ruling against China's first
Regardless of the outcome of the WTO ruling, China and strengthen its own auto industry is the last word.
July 14, U.S. President George W. Bush announced the lifting of offshore oil drilling in the United States of the ban and urged Congress to take similar steps to repeal laws ban, in response to the continuing rise of international oil price situation.
July 15, the U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke at Congressional hearings that the U.S. economy is still facing financial market turmoil, prices fell and oil, grain prices soared, and so on, many difficulties, which constitute the Fed%26#39;s policy-making Severe challenges. U.S. Treasury and Federal Reserve Board has previously announced measures to rescue the two largest U.S. mortgage finance institutions - Fannie Mae and premises of the United States, in order to avoid these two major financial institutions in the plight of further impact the U.S. economy.
July 15, the international market oil prices fall sharply, oil prices per barrel in New York the previous day down 6.44 U.S. dollars to close at 138.74 U.S. dollars, a record since the 1991 Gulf War has been the largest single-day drop. In the next three days, New York, oil prices continued to decline. A four-day total fell by 16.3 U.S. dollars per barrel, the last trading day this week to close at 128.88 U.S. dollars a barrel.
July 17, the International Monetary Fund released World Economic Outlook update reported that the 2008 world economic growth rate is estimated to be 4.1 percent in 2009 is estimated to be 3.9 percent, lower than the growth rate of 2007 5 percent, but the organization this year were higher than the April forecast of 3.7% and 3.8%.
July 18, WTO dispute settlement body announced the Group of Experts on China and the United States, the European Union and Canada tripartite ruling auto parts dispute the report. Report that China%26#39;s auto parts import management measures violate trade rules. In accordance with the dispute settlement procedures, China has the right to appeal the ruling.
British civilian retail price of natural gas could rise 65 percent
Britain%26#39;s largest civilian energy suppliers - British Gas Corporation announced an updated report to the UK average family was shocked and helpless. Report warned that if oil prices continue to remain high in the next few years the British retail gas prices will rise more than 65%.
This means that the average British household each year only on a natural gas costs from the present level of about 600 pounds (one pounds about two U.S. dollars) rose to more than 1,000 pounds.
January this year, the British have gone through a natural gas and electricity prices, future energy costs will further increase. From next month, British Gas Group will greatly enhance the retail gas and electricity prices, its 16 million users of natural gas and electricity costs will rise more than 30%.
Britain%26#39;s other five major German energy supplier E. On UK, Electricite de France, Scotland and Southern Energy, Scottish Power and British energy company Npower will also have price increases.
British Gas Group%26#39;s report pointed out that users must adapt to the natural gas prices continue to trend higher, energy consumption expenditure per household in the proportion of the budget will be bigger and bigger. Currently, Britain has 4.5 million families become energy poverty-stricken households, 10 percent of their income for the purchase of food, another 10 per cent of energy expenditure.
With food and energy prices rising, the United Kingdom in June%26#39;s inflation rate has reached 3.8 percent, to 11-year high. According to the Bank of England forecast, the United Kingdom this year%26#39;s inflation rate could break through four percent.
With North Sea oil fields to reduce the gas production, the United Kingdom from Europe and Asia to market natural gas imported in large quantities to meet domestic demand, and the market price of natural gas and oil prices closely linked. British Energy Retail Association chief executive Duncan Sedgwick said that Britain is no longer an energy island, it links with the global market than ever before, close, low-priced energy has been the history of the past. (Chen Wen-sen)
FAO: Global grain production this year is expected to record high
FAO pointed out that the United Nations on the 18th, this year%26#39;s global grain output is expected to be-a record high, but prices remained high.
Nevertheless, global grain production increased Valley is still good news. Many countries, especially China and India, are facing the grain-growing demand. Some countries have implemented new measures to ease the export situation of food shortages.
According to Singapore%26#39;s Lianhe Zaobao report, analysts pointed out that the speculation and market imbalances and other factors may increase production, but prices have not significantly affected.
The Rome-based Food and Agriculture Organization of the Valley in 2008 is expected to grain yield, about 2.1 billion 80 million tons, is the highest-ever record, 2.8 percent higher than last year.
The organization said that wheat production is forecast up to 600 million 58 million tons, will account for most of the Valley grain production. This 2007 more than 8.3 percent. Rice output is expected to exceed last year%26#39;s good level.
The organization also pointed out that the Valley is because growth in grain production throughout the world are planting more wheat, but the U.S. corn supply is very limited, which led most of the cereal price premium.
The report also mentioned that the 34 countries most of which are in Africa, not conflict, is bad weather, making food production is still in critical condition.
Economic Digest major international forecasting: The United States will vote on "the two" aid scheme
The international event scheduled for Economic Digest (July 21 to 27):
July 21, about 30 key members of WTO trade ministers meeting held in Geneva, Switzerland, in pursuit of agricultural and non-agricultural market access, and other outstanding issues to reach a compromise. The meeting could achieve breakthroughs in the Doha Round negotiations will decide whether to reach an agreement before the end of the year.
July 23, Cape Verde became the first WTO 153 members.
July 23, the U.S. Congress vote on the two major U.S. mortgage finance institutions - Fannie Mae and premises of the U.S. aid programme. The U.S. Department of Energy released weekly oil inventory report. U.S. Federal Reserve Board issued known as the Beige Book report of the national economic survey.
July 24, the U.S. Labor Department said weekly first time jobless claims report. The U.S. Department of Commerce announced in June existing home sales data.
July 25, Japan announced in June the consumer price index. Announced in May the euro zone current account data. The U.S. Department of Commerce announced in June U.S. factory orders for durable goods data and June new home sales data.
International Monetary Fund to increase economic growth expected this year in Latin America
International Monetary Fund recently released World Economic Outlook update report noted that the organization raised the Latin American economic growth is expected this year, while warning that inflation remains the Latin American economy is currently facing the biggest challenge.
The report pointed out that although the world financial market shocks and inflation plagued the first quarter of this year in Latin America better-than-expected economic performance this year, the Latin American economic growth is expected to reach 4.5 percent, than the forecast in April increased by 0.1 percentage points .
The report pointed out that Mexico%26#39;s economic growth rate this year is expected to reach 2.4 percent increase over the previous forecast of 0.4 percentage points. As adjusted to take timely measures such as bank interest rates, effective control of inflation, Brazil%26#39;s sound economic performance, economic growth this year is expected to reach 4.9 percent.
However, the international market for Latin American products to slow down demand, increase in general and Latin American countries affected by factors such as bank interest rates, the report said that in 2009 the Latin American region will slow down economic growth, expected growth rate of 3.6 per cent.
IMF officials in charge of Latin American affairs, said Kelin, compared with the historical average level, the Latin American economy will continue to maintain a high level of growth.
Kelin also warned that the current Latin American economy is not the greatest challenge facing the financial market turbulence but prices continued to rise, the Latin American countries must guard against inflation out of control. (Hu Honglei)
Latin American countries the rate of inflation rose substantially
The international market of crude oil and grain prices rose to promote, Latin American countries of the first half of this year inflation rate rose sharply in many countries the level of inflation has exceeded the targets, inflation is becoming the Latin American economy is facing a major challenge.
Venezuela is the first half of this year the Latin American countries with the highest rate of inflation, the inflation rate reached 15.1 percent, food prices rose by imbalance between supply and demand and the impact of the country%26#39;s inflation rate this year is expected to exceed 30 percent, much higher than the 19 percent of the expected目标.
Followed by Nicaragua, due to soaring food and energy prices, the dual pressure of the first half of the inflation rate reached 11.76 percent, the annual inflation rate is expected to exceed last year%26#39;s 16.88 percent, reaching 20 percent for the last 10, the highest level of inflation.
Ranked third and fourth of Bolivia and the Dominican Republic, the first half of the inflation rate reached 8.85 percent and 7.57 percent. Central American countries for almost all rely on oil imports, domestic price levels by a greater impact on the international market. In addition to Nicaragua, Guatemala, Honduras, Costa Rica and El Salvador the first half of the inflation rate reached 7.54 percent, 6.8 percent, 6.55 percent and 5.94 percent.
Latin American countries in the relatively high price increases are Ecuador and Colombia, the first half of the inflation rate was 7.09% and 6.2%. According to official statistics, from January to June this year, Colombia%26#39;s potatoes and rice prices were up 52.42 percent and 34.48 percent.
As imports increase in fuel prices, Uruguay and Paraguay%26#39;s inflation has been climbing, the first half of the inflation rate rose to 5.44 percent and 5.4 percent. Compared with other Latin American countries, Chile and Peru, the rate of inflation generally low, but inflation since the two countries this year also on the rise. Chile in June of this year%26#39;s inflation rate reached 1.5 percent, a recent 17-month inflation since the highest level, the first half of the inflation rate of 4.3 percent, with the expected 4.9 percent annual goal difference of only 0.6 Percentage points. The first half of Peru%26#39;s inflation rate reached 3.51 percent, much higher than the 2 percent target.
The first economic power in Latin America this year, Brazil%26#39;s inflation situation is not optimistic. The Government of Brazil this year%26#39;s inflation target of 4.5 percent, but the first half of this year%26#39;s inflation rate has reached 3.64 percent, the Brazilian economic circles that the country%26#39;s inflation rate this year will reach 6.48 percent. Another major Latin American countries of Argentina%26#39;s inflation rate appears to be controlled within the scope of the first half of the inflation rate of 4.6 percent, from 7.5% to 8% of annual targets some distance. The second economic power in Latin America this year, Mexico%26#39;s inflation rate was the lowest in Latin America, the first half of the inflation rate 2.03 percent, the annual targets of 3%.
To deal with adverse inflation in Zimbabwe issued 100 billion yuan denomination bank notes
Zimbabwe man armed with a face value of 5 million of the notes.
Zimbabwe central bank recently announced that it will issue a single denomination of a 100 billion-yuan notes, to deal with runaway inflation. At present, Zimbabwe%26#39;s official inflation rate was as high as 2.2 million percent. But independent economists believe the actual figure higher.
According to the British Broadcasting Corporation reported on the 20th, Governor of the Central Bank of Zimbabwe said that the new banknotes are issued for the convenience of consumers, let them from shopping at the volume of notes in that country. 100 billion yuan-but still can not buy a bread, or pay a day%26#39;s bus fare. So some people of Zimbabwe require that the issuing of a higher denomination banknotes.
A Zimbabwean man said that this is not worth hundreds of billions of Tai Chao, because every day he returned home by bus on the need to 2,500 billion yuan-fare, so the new 100 billion Taichao or worthless.
This is Zimbabwe has been four times this year, the central bank issued new currency, most recently in May 15 denominations, issued 500 million-yuan notes.
Zimbabwe to attract world attention, not only because of the election and the political crisis, and its reach in inflation brought about by economic turmoil.
As currency printing too much, so printing paper supplier of supply sources, the Zimbabwe Government in the future could face no money available embarrassing position.
German printing supplier in the international community, under pressure from the embargo imposed on Zimbabwe. Zimbabwe, a senior official said, Zimbabwe existing printing paper may be used up within two weeks.
On the survey: the soaring oil prices on the rapid expansion of economic pessimism
Japanese media published on the 19th of Japan%26#39;s 100 major enterprises nationwide survey showed that prices of raw materials such as grain prices and the rising material prices caused Japan%26#39;s economic outlook pessimistic view of the rapid expansion.
According to the Central News Agency, citing Japan%26#39;s Yomiuri Shimbun reported that in Japan since 2002 since the economy continues to recover the situation, the survey showed that Japanese companies have been the end of the recovery situation in view of rapid expansion, the Japanese economy is facing A critical moment.
Yomiuri Shimbun on July 2 to 14 of the 100 major enterprises in the survey that the current economic situation is deteriorating 43, is the last survey in April of 1.5 times. That the slow recovery of only two, and 67 November last year, compared to the sharp contrast. The survey has 55 that the economic situation did not change.
Investigations revealed that that the current good performance is 42, said the performance was not 47. The good performance has improved 51 that will be flat with 24 unchanged, expected to worsen while 14.
Survey pointed out that the economic situation of a negative impact on the three main reasons were that oil prices of raw materials such as grain prices and rising material prices, sluggish personal consumption, the U.S. economic slowdown caused by lower exports to the U.S..
For the end of the price of oil is forecast to be 140 U.S. dollars and 150 U.S. dollars between the maximum (23), followed by 160 U.S. dollars and between 170 U.S. dollars (19) , Followed by 130 U.S. dollars and between 140 U.S. dollars (16).
46 forecast the U.S. economy will be in the first half of next year recovery, and another 37 optimistic about the U.S. economy next year is expected to improve before the second half, the forecast for this year, will improve only four.
On Japan%26#39;s domestic stock market trends to forecast the Nikkei average was higher than the maximum of 14,000 points (44), followed by the more than 15,000 points and 13,000 points higher than that (all 20 2). No enterprise that shares last year, the highest point for the resumption of the more than 18,000 points, enterprises that have no price fell below 10,000 points mark will be.
Against the Japanese yen against the U.S. dollar exchange rate to forecast the U.S. dollar against the 100-105 yen between the maximum (54), followed by a dollar from 105 to 110 yen between (30 4). Enterprises that the yen will not rise one dollar to 95 yen, or one dollar dropped to 120 yen.
Russian information technology market this year, sales are expected to grow by 30 percent
Russian independent experts Union has released report predicts that 2008 sales of Russian information technology market will grow 30 percent, increase over last year doubled.
Data show that the first half of this year, the Russian information technology market is booming, the market sales grew 27.9 percent, a year earlier to 15.9 percent.
First half of this year, the Russian computer software sales rose 20 percent, information technology services increased 35 percent, computer equipment increased 23 percent.
Experts believe that, if not an accident, the Russian will become the world%26#39;s fastest growing information technology market one of its investors will be increasingly attractive.
2007, the Russian information technology market sales amounted to 15.9 billion U.S. dollars, of which sales of computer equipment for 8.2 billion U.S. dollars, an increase of 13% of computer software for 1.87 billion U.S. dollars, up 22.7 percent; technical services for 3.79 billion U.S. Yuan, up 20.1 percent. (Iraq Xiong Mei)
Philippine President expressed confidence in overcoming difficulties in the energy food prices
Philippine President Gloria Macapagal Arroyo on the 19th that although the Philippines by the international energy market and the impact of soaring grain prices, but the Philippines to overcome difficulties and continue to maintain confidence in economic growth holders.
Arroyo on the same day in a local Association of Journalists issued a statement that the Philippines to the global energy and food prices have been prepared and has sufficient resources to respond to crises, and can continue to attract foreign investment. She also believes that the Philippines did not some of its neighbours serious inflation and economic growth will continue to remain at 5 percent or more.
Arroyo rejected the lifting of petroleum products on 12% of the value-added tax, that the Government than ever need to increase taxes to solve the various problems facing. She also said that the Government will continue to provide electricity to the poor and tuition assistance to help them tide over their difficulties.
Because of the energy and the impact of rising grain prices, the Philippines June inflation rate of 11.4 percent, 14 is the highest level. (WU)
Kuwait taking into account the animal husbandry and abroad engaged in crop production
According to local media reports as the world%26#39;s seventh largest oil producer Kuwait is considering to foreign countries in animal husbandry and crop production to meet growing domestic demand for scarce food and contain inflation.
Kuwait An Sali Chairman of the Alliance of consumers cooperation of the media, said: We are considering going abroad for poultry and crop production, to ensure that the supply on the domestic market.
An Sali said: Saudi Arabia has begun to African and Asian countries to rent cultivation of agricultural products. I hope we can also follow the example of the enterprises, to Egypt, Morocco and Yemen and other countries for agricultural production in the agricultural investment.
An Sali hope that the national sovereignty of Kuwait Fund for the management of Kuwait Investment Authority can finance these projects.
Kuwait by the consumption of food and agricultural products are most dependent on imports. As import prices continue to rise, the inflation rate in Kuwait has been a record high. While the Government of rice, flour, eggs and other basic food for day-to-day financial subsidies, but large parts of other food prices also rose. (Wang Bo)
Singapore set up an interdepartmental committee to food prices
Singapore on the 18th announced the establishment of an inter-departmental committee to look into how to ensure that the country has long-term stability of food supplies to alleviate food prices rising pressure.
According to Singapore, Channel NewsAsia reported that this inter-departmental committee to the State Development and the Department of Trade and Industry led by the Committee was to explore one of the country%26#39;s agricultural policy and overseas investment in food production industries.
Singapore%26#39;s National Development Minister Mah Bow Tan in the day to attend the Agri-Food Veterinary Authority of a food safety activities that Singapore needs to recognize many of the current impact of the food supply situation is not temporary factors. In fact, here there are mid-and long-term structural problems, but the most important thing is to ensure that people%26#39;s consumption of food safety and reliability.
All along, Singapore from many countries and regions, food imports, and encourage people to eat relatively inexpensive price of frozen meat. A few years ago when the outbreak of avian flu in Asia, Singapore%26#39;s food company has reserves a lot of frozen meat, so that it can continue business activities. Mah Bow Tan said that Singapore%26#39;s food companies are also necessary as in the past, similar to the implementation of the sustainable business plan for a disruption in the food supply handy. (Xinhua)
Fed officials: interest rate increase can not wait
U.S. Federal Reserve Board under the Minneapolis Federal Reserve Bank of加里斯特恩on the 18th, said in an interview, the Fed should not wait until the financial crisis and the end of the real estate market began raising interest rates.
Stern said, not in the financial markets and economic growth have been identified after the resumption, before beginning to reverse monetary policy, our monetary policy is affecting the future, rather than immediately.
The 63-year-old Stern is the Fed, one of the most senior officials, he was the Fed monetary policy decision-making body of the Open Market Committee voting members, and in Walker, and Alan Greenspan as Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke 3 During participation in the monetary policy decision-making.
Stern said, we the downside risk to the economy has been fully prepared and I am more worried about the prospects for inflation. June U.S. consumer price index rose by 1.1 percent, to 26 is the second largest increase, showed that inflationary pressures continue to intensify.
Chicago%26#39;s federal funds rate futures trading data shows that in the Stern statement, the market expect the Fed to increase interest rates in October rose to 64 percent probability.
European Central Bank primary objective is to control inflation
In France, Le Figaro on the 18th of an interview published in the European Central Bank president Jean-Claude Trichet said the ECB%26#39;s primary task is to make the euro zone in the medium term, the rate of inflation steady at about 2 percent, because prices Stability is sustainable economic growth and job creation of the necessary conditions.
Jean-Claude Trichet said that the European Central Bank to pass on this information, it should in the medium term to maintain price stability, control the inflation rate at 2 percent. He believes that enterprises should be taken into account when pricing this point, and implement the relevant pricing negotiation.
For price stability and economic growth slow down the relationship between the two, Jean-Claude Trichet stressed that the European Central Bank will not find these two issues to resolve at the same time. He explained that the European Central Bank is the primary objective of price stability over the medium term, because it is sustainable economic growth and create the necessary conditions for employment opportunities.
Eurozone June of this year, the rate of inflation has risen to 4 percent, setting January 1, 1999 officially launched the euro since the historical record. To curb inflationary pressures, European Central Bank on the 3rd of this month will be the euro zone key interest rates from 4% to 4.25%.
The European Central Bank to raise interest rates policy, including French President Sarkozy, the leaders of some countries repeatedly questioned the policy of raising interest rates that the euro zone economic growth will bring greater negative impact. (Lu-Jun)
Ambassador to China and the Soviet Union: France will urge the EU to recognize China's market economy status
French Ambassador to China to visit the Soviet Union and July 14, the French National Day, French Ambassador to China Mr. Su He chose this special day held a meeting to announce that France holds the EU presidency, the news and hope to strengthen consultations with China Will appear implication pun. France in the period as the rotating presidency of the EU will be how to promote China%26#39;s position on the issue of changing » For this reason, this reporter had an interview with the Soviet Union and ambassadors.
China attaches importance to the support of our own often said that the EU is one of the 27 head of the monster. Ambassador to the Soviet Union and the analogy is very special, but hope that the 27 EU heads in the international community can speak with one voice, the European integration process Is of important political significance. France in the next six months in office, in four areas and in close consultation and cooperation in China.
Ambassador upfront and the Soviet Union, which includes four aspects: First, climate change, environmental protection and energy. France is now step up the formulation of a series of recommendations; second, and the adjustment of agricultural policy reform. To cope with the surge in food prices, adjusting production patterns has become a consensus of the third, the immigration problem. EU each year to 500,000 new immigrants, immigrants bring various social problems have become increasingly prominent. Although the EU has reached Convention on migrants, but have yet to be adopted by national parliaments; fourth, to strengthen the EU defense and security integration. For 10-year history of defense and security integration building, room for improvement and development remains high. EU%26#39;s goal is to build a 60,000-strong EU army, within the framework of the United Nations play a peacekeeping role.
France hopes that in the rotating presidency, on these issues can make a breakthrough, a great need for close consultations with China, and with the support of China. Ambassador to the Soviet Union and once again stressed.
Talking about priorities, and the Soviet Union and Ambassador unthinkingly, of course, is the first climate change, environmental protection and energy issues have become global issues, sustainable development has caused serious threat to China and the EU have been aware of the grim situation, In this regard the rich and intensive dialogue, including the study of clean energy, environmental technology, a series of cooperation and possible ways. This winter is expected to be held in Lyon, France, China-EU summit will make a breakthrough. France should not only promote the term of office These China-EU cooperation will continue beyond the end of his term to continuously promote such cooperation.
Urged to recognize China%26#39;s market economy status has been a tacit agreement of Sino-French relations and close there for all to see, especially in Chirac as president, reached an unprecedented harmony. Sarkozy as president, between China and France there have been some voices of discord. Recently, the Sino-French summit with the increase, this discord is gradually being overcome.
In early July, Japan%26#39;s G8 summit, President Hu Jintao and Sarkozy held a warm atmosphere of the meeting, Sarkozy has said will attend the opening ceremony of the Beijing Olympic Games. By then, sitting in the Beijing Olympic Games opening ceremony of the reviewing stand of Sarkozy, the French President will be the EU%26#39;s rotating presidency and the dual identity. This kind of heads of state status in the history of the Olympic Games is also historic. Ambassador to the Soviet Union and evaluation of the case.
When talking about will not start during the rotating presidency of lifting the arms embargo on China during the negotiations, the ambassador to the Soviet Union and firmly replied: Of course, he said. As a hot topic, we hope that during his term of office can to take this matter Progress, in fact, the European Commission as early as 2004 passed the decision to lift the ban, but did not receive the majority of countries agree that EU countries had not yet reached a consensus, it is also necessary consultations. France has always considered that the ban outdated, Is the lifting of the matter sooner or later. In order to promote early resolution of it, France must redouble our efforts during his tenure.
Council will not recognize China%26#39;s full market economy status of the topics for discussion» For reporters this issue, and the Soviet Union and once again firmly replied: Of course. This is also a hot topic, but also very important. But to get full market The economic status of accreditation, you must have the appropriate conditions.
Su and the ambassador disclosed that the recent European Commission will be introduced to China%26#39;s market economy status of the evaluation report. In fact, the EU enterprises also hope that the EU as soon as possible to recognize China%26#39;s full market economy status so that EU companies can more easily enter the Chinese market and participate in equal competition, intellectual property protection in China can get more support.
China and the EU hope that the students choose the EU has maintained a close partnership, in-depth cooperation in international affairs. At present, China is the EU%26#39;s largest trade partner and investment areas. The EU is also China%26#39;s most important technology partners, not only the largest technology transfer, Chinese students studying abroad to the European Union is the largest number of foreign students in the.
Su said: Talking about immigration issues, first of all like to stress that the EU itself will receive the traditional migration, it will not refuse to include representatives from China, the countries of migrants, the EU is to receive the largest local Chinese students also explained that This point. Moreover, the European Union to encourage more Chinese students choose to study the EU countries, the European Union through the education programme to attract more foreign students. Of course, the EU is opposed to any illegal migrants. The problem of illegal immigrants, the EU will maintain The close dialogue with China.
Su said the ambassador and his Chinese students the impression that good. He also disclosed that in the current immigration policy, the EU will not make any visa restrictions. Immigration and students can join the Schengen agreement in any EU countries free access.
Now, the EU countries France, Britain, Germany, and other States and China established a comprehensive strategic partnership and cooperation contents and methods are very rich and flexible. France hopes that the term be able to promote EU-China comprehensive strategic partnership to the concrete and pragmatic Direction. Ambassador to the Soviet Union and the attitude of the French people feel the exuberant ambitions. (Xu Yi)
Dollar / yuan or fell below historical lows but is unlikely
Last Friday the dollar in the international market fairly stable performance of the expected price will be located in the vicinity of 6.8150 yuan, and last Friday closing price of 6.8169 yuan cash considerable, but he added that when the dollar in the U.S. trading session of the trend can not provide any guidelines , The dollar will usually / renminbi will certainly bring down the space.
Added that, taking into account the recent market momentum, hit 6.8000 yuan in cash before the adjustment will not have much space.
Gold Rush international financial exchange market briefing (0721)
First, the global financial markets last week closed market index closed Change China%26#39;s Shanghai Index 2778.37 +93.59
Nikkei Index 12803.70 -84.25
The Hang Seng Index 21874.19 +139.47
The Dow Jones Index 11496.57 +49.91
The Nasdaq composite index 2282.78 -29.52
S %26amp; P 500 1260.68 +0.36
Germany%26#39;s DAX index 6382.65 +111.38
Second, Europe and the United States stock market Summary of the U.S. stock market, last Friday mixed. Citigroup and General Motors higher, extending last week to rally, while coal and Google shares fell. European stock markets, closed higher last Friday, the U.S. banking giant Citigroup stronger-than-expected performance offset by a Belgian supermarket group Delhaize and the French cosmetics company L%26#39;Oreal profits and the impact of poor sales.
U.S. stock market, the Dow Jones industrial average rose 49.91 points to 11496.57 points, or 0.44 percent last week, the Dow Jones index was up 3.6 percent, creating up to April 18 the week since the biggest weekly gain. The Standard %26amp; Poor%26#39;s 500 index rose 0.36 points to 1260.68 and the Nasdaq composite index fell 29.52 points to 2282.78 points, or 1.28 percent. European stock markets, the German DAX 30 index rose 1.4 percent to 6360.74 points. Britain%26#39;s FTSE 100 index closed up 1.3 percent to 5352.30 points. France%26#39;s CAC-40 index rose 0.8 percent, to 4,259.15 points.
Third, gold Energy New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX) crude oil futures last Friday the fourth consecutive trading day decline, due to concerns that record oil prices prompted consumers to reduce the demand. NYMEX08 in August NYMEX crude oil futures settled down 41 cents to 128.88 U.S. dollars a barrel, or 0.3 percent.
The New York Mercantile Exchange (COMEX) gold last Friday, gold and silver futures to profit-taking factors fell, mainly from late last Thursday by selling crude oil futures rebounded slightly, as well as the recent stock market impact. Last Friday the market overall trading was quiet. COMEX08, August gold fell 12.70 U.S. dollars to settle at 958 U.S. dollars an ounce.
Fourth, the international foreign exchange markets of New York trading, investors last Friday, the dollar against the euro basically the same, why is the U.S. stock market and the price of crude oil last week after a concussion after the start stabilize. U.S. stocks rose sharply in the past three days after quiet trading in the market today, crude oil futures prices have also maintained a tight range as investors digest on the 3rd largest decline in oil prices after the impact. The oil market and the stock market coupled with the trend of relative calm last Friday the United States has no economic data released, these factors prompted many foreign exchange investors to maintain positions before the weekend. For many market participants, the experience of the euro in the week hit record high of 1.6040 U.S. dollars, followed quickly fell back to 1.58 U.S. dollars after the trend, last Friday%26#39;s market performance was a welcome rest. Last Friday the stock market movements and stability so that foreign exchange market risk preferences warming, leading to low yield of the yen against the euro and the dollar fell. Citigroup dollars from the better-than-expected performance gain some support. Citigroup announced last Friday, the second-quarter loss of 2.5 billion U.S. dollars, or 54 cents a share, the market had expected a loss per share of 66 cents a share. But the market is suspected of dollars from the stock market can continue to get better support, because the recent stock market rally by the main performance reports to promote, and the expected performance although not so bad, but still very poor. British pound fell last Friday after the British National Bureau of Statistics announced ,2008-09 for the first three months of the government budget deficit hit a record quarterly high. In view of the British economy in sharp decline, the news deepened the market for the financial position of the British public worry. Other currencies, despite the U.S. dollar against the RMB yuan was set at a higher level, but Chinese exporters to promote the needs of the RMB yuan rose against the dollar last Friday. U.S. dollar against the yen in Asian trading hours down the rising yuan is also promoting a factor. Request trading market, the dollar against the yuan last Friday to close at 6.8169 yuan, down from last Thursday closing price of 6.8213 yuan.
Euro / dollar (EUR / USD)
1.5700/1.5600 support, the resistance 1.5950/1.6050
Sterling / dollar (GBP / USD)
1.9850/1.9750 support, the resistance 2.0100/2.0200
U.S. dollars / CHF (USD / CHF)
1.0100/1.0000 support, the resistance 1.0350/1.0450
Dollar / yen (USD / JPY)
106.00/105.00 support, the resistance 108.00/109.00
Aussie / dollar (AUD / USD)
0.9600/0.9500 support, the resistance 0.9850/1.0000
Dollar / Canadian dollar (USD / CAD)
0.9950/0.9850 support, the resistance 1.0150/1.0250
5, 7:01 Britain today important data in July Rightmove average housing price index (annualized) 0.10% impact ★
07:01 UK July Rightmove the average housing price index (on rates) -1.20% impact ★
Australia 6-09:30 Rose after a new car sales (annualized) 2.60%
09:30 Australia after the six-car sales rose (on rates) -1.60%
09:30 Australia the second quarter producer price index (quarter rate) 1.90% impact ★
09:30 Australia the second quarter producer price index (annualized) 4.80% impact ★
11:00 New Zealand rose 6-to-after credit card (on rates) -1.10%
11:00 New Zealand credit card spending in June (annualized) 5.90%
15:15 Switzerland in June supermarket sales (annualized) -1.10%
15:15 Swiss supermarket sales in June (on rates) 1.20%
20:30 U.S. Chamber of Commerce in June leading indicator of the impact of 0.10 percent ★ ★ ★
20:30 Chamber of Commerce of the United States in June coincident index 0.10 percent
20:30 U.S. June lagging indicator of the Chamber of Commerce 0.20%
20:30 U.S. June Chicago Fed National Activity Index -0.96
6, the important financial and economic events in Japan today Ocean Festival markets were closed Disclaimer: The above analysis for reference purposes only and does not constitute intervention recommendations. Exchange investment risks, prudent decision-making!
July 21 monetary analysis and prediction
Euro / dollar: U.S. dollars last weekend by better-than-expected performance of Citibank affected are on the increase, but worries remain, the euro fell to around 1.58 after the event support modest rebound. Referring to three hours in the gold chart, as a downward finger upward increase Triangle signals, reflecting the greenback rebounded to near the high of 1.59 encountered greater resistance to shocks after finishing down the demand, the greenback fell to 1.58 narrow range near the main adjustment, weak movements, the euro is expected to rebound today after the disruption decreased the risk of concussion Larger.
Operation recommendations: with gold that signal (1) to consider the greenback rebounded to around 1.59 blocked, could be considered to sell a small amount of short-term, stop-loss at 1.5930, target 1.5870/1.5840.
(2) further effective exchange rate fell below 1.58, could consider selling to do short-term, stop-loss at 1.5830 near the target 1.5770/1.5740.
Sterling / dollar: sterling capped at the weekend after two lower minimum lowered to 1.9905 first, late rebound slightly. This morning, the greenback dropped slightly again. Referring to three hours for gold in the plans, as a progressive increase fingers down triangle signal, Reflect the greenback rebounded to two encountered some resistance, and have a stronger demand pullback, the dollar fell back to the previous high of 1.9930 hovering near, today is expected to pound down again greater risk of concussion.
Operation recommendations: with gold that signal (1) to consider Diechuan effective exchange rate of 1.99, could be considered for short-term selling, stop-loss control in the vicinity of 1.9930, objective look at the 1.9870/1.9840.
(2) to consider the greenback rebounded to around 2 blocked, may consider selling a small amount of short-term, stop-loss 2.0030, objective look at the 1.9970/1.9940.
Dollar / yen: U.S. stocks rebound in the greenback continues to be high impact, pull back to around 106 support case rebounded sharply, recovering most of decline has been late. This morning, the greenback rose slightly. Referring to three hours in the gold chart, as a finger up Signal, reflecting the dollar / yen lower in recent encounter strong support, the overall uplink desire to be strong, the current exchange rate fell further temporary disruption, if investors can effectively break on 107, is expected to again later in the uplink a greater chance of concussion .
Operation recommendations: with gold that signal (1) to consider the effective exchange rate of 107 on the break, could consider multi short-term, stop-loss control in the vicinity of 106.70, the goal to look at 107.30/107.60.
(2) to consider the exchange rate correction to 106 firm signs may consider doing a small amount of short-term, stop-loss 105.70, the goal to look at 106.30/106.60.
Aussie / dollar: Australian dollar 0.97 narrow range around the overall trend of the main shocks, the trend of further delay in the rebound 0.9740. This morning, the greenback rose after the first down. Referring to three hours in the gold chart, the latest in an unspecified upward finger signal, And the Australian dollar rose sharply early highs after the break, the overall desire to enhance the uplink, the greenback further upstream blocked a small pullback demand, is expected to support its case today pullback after the shocks rose a greater chance.
Operation recommendations: with gold that signal (1) to consider the vicinity of 0.97 to the greenback callback firm signs may consider doing a small amount of short-term, stop-loss control in the vicinity of 0.9670, objective look at the 0.9730/0.9760.
(2) effective exchange rate of 0.98 breakthrough in the vicinity, could do more to consider short-term, stop-loss control in the vicinity of 0.9770, objective look at the 0.9830/0.9860.
Dollar / Canadian dollar: the exchange rate impact of higher oil prices fall, and for a time on the touch line to 1.0080, again higher after the late pullback. Greenback this morning, slightly up. Referring to three hours for gold in the plans, as a downward finger signals, reflecting Dollar rebounded sharply down after the disruption, the overall trend tends to weakness, the greenback early in the encounter near the low short-term support and a rebound in demand is expected to rebound today blocked the decrease in higher risk.
Operation recommendations: with gold that signal (1) to consider Diechuan an effective exchange rate, could be considered for short-term selling, stop-loss control in the vicinity of 1.0030, objective look at the 0.9970/0.9940.
(2) the greenback rebounded to 1.01 blocked signs, may consider selling a small amount of short-term, stop-loss control at 1.0130, objectives to look at 1.0070/1.0040.
Dollar / Swiss franc: dollar pullback after the concussion move up the case of support, the highest on the touch to the vicinity of the initial high of 1.0250, down slightly from late rebound blocked. This morning, the greenback in a narrow range around 1.020 adjustment. Referring to three hours in the gold chart, As a finger upward and downward triangle signals, reflecting the low exchange rate in the near future have greater support, the overall trend in Qujiang, the current exchange rate hovering around 1.02 to rebound, further rebound temporarily blocked, if investors take a firm in 1.02, Subsequently the city is expected to move up further opportunities for greater shocks.
Operation recommendations: with gold that signal (1) the exchange rate at 1.02 firm, may consider multi short-term, stop-loss 1.0170, objective look at the 1.0230/1.0260.
(2) to consider the effective exchange rate of 1.0260 breakthrough in the vicinity, could be considered a small amount of short-term multi, stop-loss control in the vicinity of 1.0230, objective look at the 1.0290/1.0320.
Note: The above gold that the light signals are plans for gold means three hours real-time signal
Kunlun International: the dollar has not yet uncertain
Following yesterday%26#39;s announcement of JP Morgan Chase-expected quarterly results, the largest U.S. bank Citibank today also announced a better-than-expected second quarter performance. After the results announcement, Citibank and the shares of the strength of the U.S. dollar. The Federal Reserve Board announced on 24 to 25-month rate of the record shows that part of the decision-making members are of the view that the risk of slower economic growth fell at the same time, inflation risks are increasing, the next adjustment of interest rates when more inclined to raising rates. As to when the interest rate increase is still unknown number of the interest rate will mean that over a period of time. I believe that although the Fed has not set timetable for interest rate increase, but at least it can be the Fed will not soon lower interest rates again.
Investors may ask whether this means that dollars have been low this «I do not agree with this, the dimensionless by problems remain unresolved. Banking and investment, according to Daxing still relevant provision of large scale investment products, coupled with influx of U.S. corporate layoffs continue, it is bound to stimulate the unemployment rate rose again. Moreover, while high oil prices despite the fall, but do not remain high. And persistently high oil prices will affect consumer sentiment of the American people. As the United States for consumer countries, if the spending power weakened, it is bound to affect the U.S. economy. Euro: Despite Germany%26#39;s inflation data released today than market expectations, but failed to stimulate the euro rose against the dollar, the lowest level had dropped to 1.5820. Germany announced in June producer price index the previous month and a 0.9 percent growth, it was higher than market expectations of 0.7 percent. And a year ago while 6.7 percent increase, above the market last month%26#39;s 6 percent and market expectations of 6.5 percent. In addition, Italy announced the May industrial production and sales were down 3.1 percent the previous month and 2.7 percent. Eurozone inflation continues to worsen, but not yet able to stimulate the euro up, we can imagine, the market%26#39;s positive trend of the euro exchange rate has changed.
Sterling: by the British introduced a new policy CitiBank and the largest U.S. bank announced second quarter results better than market expectations, dragging the British pound against the U.S. dollar continued to fall today, the lowest level Zengxian 1.9905. British finance minister announced a new spending guidelines, allows the government to break the ceiling of public sector debt, investors speculated the British policy which will increase borrowing.
Japanese yen: Stocks positive for the dollar yesterday, oil prices fell for three days to support the U.S. dollar against 107.06 yen the highest ever seen. First, Japan next week due to holidays, market activity is limited, the greenback today from taking maximum points to 106.27 around, has been in a narrow range, hovering. Another Reuters report, the Bank of Japan governor Baichuan Fang-ming stressed that the stability of the global central bank inflation expectations are very important. He also said that Japan%26#39;s inflation prospects in the long-term stability after major changes have occurred, the global supply and demand factors will support commodity prices continue to rise, the Japanese economy to external shocks than in the past more flexible, much downside risk for the economy.
Australian dollar: CRB commodity price index dropped since June 11 since the minimum, the Australian dollar dropped sharply against the U.S. dollar yesterday at 0.9676 to the lowest level. Today%26#39;s second-quarter trading conditions in Australia rose sharply 12 percent, support the Australian dollar rose to 0.9726 level. As for the specific data, Australia%26#39;s second-quarter export price index rate of 13.5% quarter, the annual rate of 6.3 percent and imports quarter CPI rate of 1.4 percent annual rate of 6.2 percent.
New Zealand dollar: as yesterday%26#39;s sharp plunge in commodity prices, have seen the lowest point in the 0.7585, New Zealand yuan against the U.S. dollar today narrow range correction yesterday%26#39;s losses and return to the highest level of 0.7642. New Zealand%26#39;s weak economy, the market is now estimated July 24 New Zealand central bank will cut interest rates 0.25% 56% of the possibility, it seems that New Zealand yuan continue to be optimistic about.
Canadian dollar: U.S. dollar against the Canadian dollar little changed today, from top to bottom amplitude only 56 points. Bank of Canada governor said yesterday that the surge in oil prices will steadily push up the inflation rate in 08, while the first quarter of next year%26#39;s inflation rate hit 4.3 percent have the opportunity of the summit, but he thought the current interest rate level is appropriate, the market I believe the Bank of Canada in the rest of the year to maintain interest rates unchanged at 3% level. As for data, Canada announced in June leading indicator, the last month increased by 0.2% to 0%.
Gold: With oil prices yesterday Diechuan 130 U.S. dollars a barrel level, gold also see the recent lows. Today, gold for a slight surge in more than 954.5 U.S. dollars per oz some support, narrow range of up to 962.1. The future of gold to the dollar sentiment will continue and the impact of oil price fluctuations.
Africa and the United States currency at the top of consolidation is still expected this week
Last week, the crisis in credit expansion and oil prices fell successively under the dollar exchange rate has experienced a lot of Juechufengsheng the Xilian. The first half weeks, as the two largest U.S. mortgage agencies Fannie Mae and premises of the United States爆出insolvent and the need to rescue the news, the U.S. dollar index at one stroke below the support level near 72, last Tuesday fell to the lowest 71.32, The euro hit a record high 1.6035; Aussie also redouble their efforts, on-one stroke to 0.9848, setting a new 25-year high.
However, last Tuesday began a substantial decline in international oil prices, the dollar managed to rebound, as at last Friday close, the dollar index once again return to the vicinity of 72.20, while the euro against the dollar pull back to 1.5846, the Australian dollar fell to 0.9699 against the dollar, the dollar against the yen also Return to near 107.
Differences for the international market increased the foreign exchange market trend of the future, at present, the market divided up, some agencies believe that the U.S. economy is likely to further slow down, which would reduce the likelihood the Federal Reserve raising interest rates, and save the premises of the United States and Fannie Mae Will further expand the federal government%26#39;s budget deficit, the Fed increased the credit line will also increase the supply of dollars, which will be weighed on the dollar. The European Central Bank is likely to raise interest rates again to control the region exceeded the target rate of inflation, the euro / dollar is expected to continue on the salt.
Another part of agencies that, although weak U.S. economic data has brought pressure for the U.S. dollar, the euro zone economic data but also bad. Moreover, with the euro zone economy by the global economic downturn is on the rise against the degree; more and more people believe that the intervention force to support the dollar%26#39;s fall is being enhanced.
This week, in addition to the United States Thursday announced the price index and the Fed%26#39;s Beige Book, there is no data of particular importance, however, the Government may at any time there are new initiatives introduced or comments, in addition, the trend of oil prices also Dollar exchange rate will be about the trend.
The dollar bottomed oscillation will continue this week all the major currency movements, Guangzhou branch of Bank of Communications Xie Junhua said that the United States dollar, if the oil prices in the medium-term reversal of the trend, it means that the medium-term strengthening of the dollar, but at the moment It appears that the building top oil prices also requires a process in place before mid-term decline, the dollar will continue oscillation bottomed. Moreover, the recent Fannie and premises of the United States reflected the problems will continue to affect the dollar. This week for non-dollar currencies will remain at the top of the trend of consolidation, operation, the non-dollar currencies, the Jiancang has been in place for good stops on the premise of a cautious, wait-and-see while the Jiancang not suitable.
Euro / dollar: As the U.S. financial market conditions deteriorate again, the euro still have a chance this week on the 1.60-and short-term unless they support level at 1.5780, if not the euro fell below the support level, it is expected to a record high. Operation, if the euro fell below 1.5750, stop-loss bidder. Jiancang not suitable for investors to wait and see.
Sterling / dollar: The recent trend of pounds may have a slightly stronger, but, because of Britain%26#39;s inflation rate reached 3.8 percent, the Bank of England rate cut is also the possibility of getting smaller and smaller. Pounds in the next support level of 1.9850 to 1.9880, if the firm at the top in the region, is expected to test on the 2.04. If the British pound fell below 1.9850, stop-loss bidder. Kongcang to wait and see.
Dollar dropped ranged from lowend, to maintain a tight range
The dollar against the euro weakened slightly Friday, the U.S. stock market and oil prices fell slightly moderate rise of the hedge market sentiment slightly at low tide.
As the euro against the dollar at 1.5850 U.S. dollars, at 1.5830 U.S. dollars late Thursday. U.S. dollar 106.71 yen, at 106.68 yen late Thursday.
Basic maintenance interval dollars U.S. dollar against major fluctuations in currency fluctuations is very small, because today no U.S. economic data released, while crude oil and reduce the volatility of the stock market.
Moderately higher euro, the yen fell slightly, but the basic dollar range of fluctuation. New York trading Friday, the euro was at 1.5844 U.S. dollars, to 1.5830 U.S. dollars late Thursday. U.S. dollar against 106.84 yen and 106.68 yen late Thursday. The euro was 169.27 yen and 168.87 yen late Thursday. The pound was 1.9983 U.S. dollars, to 1.9995 U.S. dollars late Thursday. U.S. dollar against 1.0216 Swiss francs, 1.0228 Swiss francs late Thursday.
Will lead to increased risk tolerance yen lower U.S. stocks of higher U.S. dollar against the euro and the yen low yield rose. New York trading Friday, the euro was at 1.5844 U.S. dollars, to 1.5830 U.S. dollars late Thursday.
U.S. dollar against 106.90 yen and 106.68 yen late Thursday. The euro was 169.32 yen and 168.87 yen late Thursday. The pound was 1.9976 U.S. dollars, to 1.9995 U.S. dollars late Thursday. U.S. dollar against 1.0219 Swiss francs, 1.0228 Swiss francs late Thursday.
Euro 08 euro thirdquarter outlook the final feast
2008 occupied the first half of the financial markets the most significant trends in the status of the dollar all the way Xiaxie one of the decline, which affected not only the world%26#39;s many other currency movements, but also greatly promoted the oil price increase, even with the stock and bond market volatility Also Nantuo relations. In addition to the dollar since the beginning of the Canadian dollar, the currency of all G10 countries also fell, the biggest decline against the Swiss franc against the Australian dollar decreases in the second, the third decline against the euro. U.S. dollars mainly in the first quarter dropped in April after the U.S. dollar against major currency movements there are differences. The second quarter of the dollar against the euro almost unchanged, up 5 percent against the yen, or 5 percent against the Australian dollar, the Fed cut its interest rate cycle is at the end of the signal, or other hard-line attitude of the central bank or conservative, the country%26#39;s currency against the U.S. dollar that is Or strong or weak, dealers do more, or to go short dollars are profitable opportunities.
Federal Reserve policy of the Federal Reserve decided to oil prices presumably never thought this day when that future policy depends on oil prices look. Since the beginning of oil prices from 93 U.S. dollars / barrel rose to 144 U.S. dollars / barrel, or about 50%, if they are not so sky-high oil prices, the Fed may continue to cut interest rates, or at least keep interest rates unchanged this year, because of the U.S. economy clearly in Cool. However, current Fed Chairman Bernanke luck than his predecessors, Alan Greenspan, Greenspan faced with 2001 technology bubble burst can only concerned about growth, oil prices rose today at the same time pushing into a high inflation and curb consumer spending SHUANGJIAN, May CPI annual rate of 4.2 percent in the third quarter could be as high as 5 percent, despite the Fed%26#39;s concern about core inflation indicators modest, but by rising energy prices pushed up inflation still expected the Fed to guard against. U.S. businessmen have either major or imposed fuel price increases, prices rise once, it will be difficult to go down, the only oil and food prices can bring prices may fall.
Federal Reserve: The third quarter rate hike »
April 30 Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 25 basis points after the end of the current round of interest rate cut cycle, in June the second quarter of the last time the Fed on interest rates and interest rates remain unchanged at 2.0 percent, to cool down the economy for the past eight months, cut interest rates 325 points for the first time at hand, unfortunately, economic growth is still no improvement, of course, the economic impact of interest rate policy usually lag behind, this is the reason for the Fed to hand, on the other hand they actually have no choice, since last year%26#39;s third Quarter of them only focus on growth, inflation and inflation expectations now are cross-border, to prevent such as the 1970s oil crisis, they must think of ways to reduce the risk of inflation, the market is currently expected third or fourth quarter will increase interest rates , The interest rate futures market expected interest rate increase in September possibility of a 65% interest rate increase in October may have 81 percent, the June market interest rates before the meeting was expected interest rate increase in September may have 99.9 percent, but after the meeting that is expected to cool down , The data will change the future market expectations. The upcoming U.S. presidential election is not expected the Fed to stop raising interest rates, over the past 40 years there have been 10 general election, of which 7 general election during a Fed rate hike, during the 2004 presidential election in the interest rate from 1 percent added to the 2.25%, 1988 During the presidential election in interest rates from 14 percent added to a 20 per cent, the election should not affect Federal Reserve policy-making, such as raising interest rates but they may choose to September from November to avoid too close, show a neutral attitude.
U.S. consumers become stingy when »
Consumer spending remained the accident remained strong in support of the Federal Reserve raising interest rates, even though gasoline prices break through four U.S. dollars / gallon, there may be up to five U.S. dollars / gallon, consumer spending has remained relatively stable, 3, 4, 5, retail sales have actually By the growth of food and energy prices may rise in retail sales is partly due, but in March to April period of consumers in the clothing, sporting goods and health care products on the same expenditure continued to rise, even though consumer confidence fell to record low , But does not seem to改掉shopping habits. 2008 retail sales in February fell only, but will more likely drop. Wall Street Journal and Financial Times reported substantially all of the difficulties faced by U.S. consumers, this should be the ultimate in retail sales reflected in the data.
The labour market: employment is expected to reduce the number will be under continuous Elliott wave theory, 5 wave that is a continuation of the trend, three waves of trends is the amendment, the euro / dollar from 1.6018 to 1.5283 while the decline in violent, but only 3 waves, which presaged the euro / dollar will continue to uplink. Since August 2007 the euro / dollar to maintain the trend line support at the top, the recent COT report may indicate bottomed. Long-term view from 1.6018 or the beginning of the waves can be seen as a rally from 1.1640 start of the fourth wave, as long as the exchange rate will remain at 1.5303 to open at the top of the fifth wave of the possible targets could reach 1.6394 or 1.7077, respectively, two positions Shenglang is in front of the projection of fibo. On the other hand may also think that the fourth wave is still in progress, likely to 1.30, or flag-shaped end, if triangular shape the end of the exchange rate will remain at 1.5283 at the top, if a flag-shaped end, the greenback fell to 1.5283 will be slightly below, and then start 5 wave rally.
Employment is expected to reduce the number will continue, the June employment has continued to decrease in six months, including the famous investor Warren Buffett, many people believe that the United States is in recession, and the recession period of employment in the rapidly substantially reduced. Over the past 30 years in the United States experienced a recession three times, each time employment continued to decrease in the number of at least 10 months, many people believe that the housing market to collapse, the credit crisis and rising commodity prices triple against the United States under the economic growth rate of cooling Than in the early 1900s recession more severe. If this forecast is correct, then the number of jobs will be in more than four months of decline in the month, in the past three recession employment in the biggest one-month decline in more than 300,000. The job market continued to slump seems to be Banshangdingding thing, companies such as Citigroup and Goldman Sachs have announced more layoffs.
Or the dollar has nearly bottomed »
The dollar%26#39;s recent weakness, but may have bottomed or close to, the Federal Reserve since last August has cut interest rates 325 points, despite the interest rate increase may not be very soon, but has no room for interest rate cut. Other central bank will cut interest rates for the more conservative, or no interest rate cut, which means that they do not have much room for raising interest rates, in downlink global growth trends and be prepared to increase interest rates to control inflation expectations the central bank (such as the European Central Bank) facing combat The risk of economic growth, if the European Central Bank interest rate increase this year only once, and the Fed even more radical, then the dollar will certainly bottomed. State officials G8 speech to the tremendous support the dollar over the past few decades, G7 and G8 meetings gave the dollar a major turnaround, the dollar%26#39;s weakness has been promoting higher energy prices, other countries within the G8 group might support a strong dollar, the recent U.S. Government officials over his speech, expressed their support for a strong dollar, mining may take more than verbal intervention measures, China has also enthusiastically expressed the hope that the dollar will stabilize, if the G8 communique change the exchange rate of speech, the collective appeal to the dollar, then the dollar Is bound to rise.
The euro »» final feast »
Although the euro close to record highs, interest rates are relatively high, soaring energy prices, the euro zone the first half of 2008 economic growth remained unexpectedly strong first-quarter euro zone GDP growth rate of 2.2%, much higher than the U.S. one percent . Exports rose to support the euro zone economic fields, especially the German export prosperity, improve the efficiency of emerging markets such as China, Russia and the Middle East brought about strong demand for support, metal, electronic and automobile industry has to be the beginning of the year than in the past to create 40 more Employment opportunities.
2008 above the second half of this excellent situation may be gone, the high exchange rate, high interest rates and high oil prices that the three big mountains has begun to impact the European economy, as consumers and producers have indicated that third-quarter data may be sharp Cooled down, the German GFK consumer confidence index fell to 5.3 within two months from 3.9, is the record low. Despite the seemingly robust economic growth, consumer confidence is also weak, France, Italy and other major economies in the euro zone consumer confidence surveys have indicated that bleak trend will continue. Producers in the same data is not optimistic, the latest eurozone manufacturing purchasing managers index fell to 49.1, below the 50-decline line is more than the lowest since 2003, the latest IFO business confidence index fell to 101.3, also below expectations , Is more than two and a half years minimum. In short the euro zone economy may face greater challenges in the second half of the year, consumers face rising prices due to the threat, producers reduce the risks facing global demand, are subject to adjustment.
European Central Bank at full steam ahead despite signs of cooling down the economy significantly, the ECB still Jueran tough attitude not changed, even further tightening of monetary policy, because of high energy and food prices rose to promote inflation, much higher than the ECB target of 2% to 3.7%, 10 to a high point, to the European Central Bank President Jean-Claude Trichet, the market is harsh warning signal, on June 5 in interest rates after the resolution at a news conference to let the market is big surprise to signal interest rate increase in July, July On the 3rd Yanchubihang ECB rate hike to 4.25%.
European Central Bank%26#39;s hardline attitude toward the recent uptrend in the euro is the biggest main driving force behind the euro zone and the United States spreads to 225 points, Jean-Claude Trichet signals are given interest rate increase significantly the flow of speculative funds after the euro, euro zone interest rates on the prospects for the sole The question is are they after the first interest rate increase at hand, or the interest rate increase will be carried out in the end » Jean-Claude Trichet, I caution that has no intention of raising interest rates several times given the signal the central bank%26#39;s main concern is controlling inflation expectations, prices continued to rise to the central bank worried about the situation out of control. With the goal of balanced control inflation and stimulate economic growth in different Federal Reserve, European Central Bank to control inflation major concern. In answering a reporter%26#39;s question, Jean-Claude Trichet made it clear that the Administration does not have the responsibility to stimulate growth. In short European Central Bank raising interest rates again this year there may be 25, if oil prices continue to rise will support such a possibility. The current policy of the future European Central Bank makes no promises. Euro / dollar rally lost momentum.
Oil prices become a major concern of foreign exchange markets, the euro / dollar is a great relevance, it does not mean that a causal relationship between the two, but the euro and rising oil prices momentum footsteps fundamentals are still good reasons for rising oil prices driven Prices broadly higher, with the euro zone inflation indicators also rose, which support the European Central Bank raising interest rates to attract speculators do more euros. Oil prices could become the third quarter decided the euro / dollar, the primary factor, if oil prices dropped to 130 U.S. dollars / barrel below, reducing inflationary pressures, European Central Bank cut interest rates brought about space, it will suppress the euro / dollar on the other hand, If oil prices remain high, or continue up to 150 U.S. dollars / barrel, the European Central Bank to continue raising interest rates will likely increase, the euro / dollar will continue to be supported by speculative funds.
Recession risk »
European Central Bank President Jean-Claude Trichet to cool down the economy ignored risk, long-term tight monetary policy to promote the euro zone may be a recession, but few analysts also made the euro zone into recession this year, the pessimistic expectations, but the situation could rapidly deteriorate, Forced the ECB to take a more lenient policy, even if prices remain high. In the second quarter outlook, we noted that the ECB will maintain a tough attitude is the main reason for relatively optimistic about the job market, Germany in the second quarter unemployment rate continues to fall each month, the French unemployment rate fell to 20 low, for a long time we That the job market began cooling European Central Bank to alter the hard-line attitude.
The job market may have already started to contract, in June the German unemployment rate nearly two and a half years for the first time up, the end of the employment growth for 29 months and growth trends, if the cost of capital and higher global demand reduction to promote the German unemployment rate continues to rise, Europe The central bank may find it difficult to continue raising interest rates, even if inflation pressures continue.
Over the past year in the euro zone manufacturers (especially Germany), the new economies such as China, Russia and the Middle East benefit from the demand, the latter two areas due to oil exports and the wealthy, is expected to continue to provide support, but China may be in the summer After the Olympics大减capital spending, or will hurt the euro zone growth was mainly-chuen ─ ─ capital goods exports. High interest rates, rising unemployment, the global slowdown in demand, such adverse circumstances the second half of the euro zone economic growth may have exceeded the expected rate of cooling.
North and South continue to sever the euro zone economy is facing pressure from within the South-North economic region of increasing friction that the southern Italy, Spain and Greece and other countries facing gloomy prospects, northern Germany and the Netherlands and other countries still relatively good. Italy GDP annual rate of just 0.3 percent, Spain%26#39;s budget deficit exceeded the 10 per cent of GDP, the housing market tends to the brink of collapse, Greece GDP growth of 15% dependent on tourism, while the euro rising prices, this summer is expected to crack down on the tourism industry, the Americans may think that To the load.
State officials began complaining about the southern European Central Bank hard-line policy is not surprising, the European Central Bank reflect the attitude of the main attitude of the German central bank,
The southern countries need to be more lenient policy, this autumn may bring more acute contradiction. Despite the success of the euro, but as a multi-country single currency, the policy differences within the region once the evolution is a serious political conflict, the euro will be adversely affected.
Euro / dollar continued to suffer despite the euro zone economy in the first half interval withstand the high exchange rate, high interest rates and high energy prices, the triple attack, the second half outlook remains gloomy, the euro / dollar since April rose to 1.6 at the top of the record high After the exchange rate mainly in the 1.5-1.6 range or consolidation, the euro%26#39;s recent strength is not supported by fundamentals, but from hard-line attitude of the ECB accident benefit the regional economy faces significant risk of cooling, the European Central Bank interest rate increase can be carried out to many Still far from unknown, and maintain the more hard-line stance, the euro zone will promote economic abyss of recession in the greater the risk, but also for the southern and northern countries of the conflict between Tianchai pay rise. Oil prices because of the impact on inflation will remain the largest market focus of the current euro / dollar up pressure on the record high of 1.60, if the cool price pressures, European Central Bank opened more relaxed monetary policy, euro / dollar may continue to lower.
Euro / dollar technology foresight under Elliott wave theory, 5 wave that is a continuation of the trend, three waves of trends is the amendment, the euro / dollar from 1.6018 to 1.5283 while the decline in violent, but only three waves, which presaged Euro / dollar will continue to uplink. Since August 2007 the euro / dollar to maintain the trend line support at the top, the recent COT report may indicate bottomed. Long-term view from 1.6018 or the beginning of the waves can be seen as a rally from 1.1640 start of the fourth wave, as long as the exchange rate will remain at 1.5303 to open at the top of the fifth wave of the possible targets could reach 1.6394 or 1.7077, respectively, two positions Shenglang is in front of the projection of fibo. On the other hand may also think that the fourth wave is still in progress, likely to 1.30, or flag-shaped end, if triangular shape the end of the exchange rate will remain at 1.5283 at the top, if a flag-shaped end, the greenback fell to 1.5283 will be slightly below, and then start 5 wave rally.
Citigroup encouraged by the performance of the dollar but sentiment is still unstable
* Citigroup is less than the expected loss of easing the worries of credit restricted * euro, Trichet stressed that economic growth because of the risks faced by the overall popularity * dollar financial sector issues are still being clouded by dollar rose Friday against the euro were recorded in the past month is expected to Biggest weekly gain; Citigroup announced earlier quarter loss smaller than expected, easing the market is worried that the U.S. financial industry.
Citigroup earnings is the Wells Fargo and JP Morgan Chase, also issued a positive performance in the company. This helped the dollar against the euro on Tuesday fell to record lows regain some strength.
Citigroup encouraged by the performance of the market to undertake more risk, given (USD) boost, Scotia Capital, senior currency strategist Stephen Malyon said.
This released earlier this week with the performance of other banks, the dollar sentiment has slightly reversed.
New York trading, the dollar index. DXY increased by 0.2 percent to 72.191.
The euro was down 0.1 percent against the dollar at 1.5841, well below Tuesday%26#39;s record high of 1.6037. The dollar was up 0.7 percent at 106.94.
The euro was inhibited one of the reasons is that the European Central Bank (ECB) President Jean-Claude Trichet said that euro zone economic growth in the second and third quarters may be weak, and will then rebound.
Jean-Claude Trichet, in four joint interview with European newspapers, said the risks to economic growth Pianyu downside.
This market consensus, that is 1.60 or above 1.5950 in euro / dollar can not show strong gains, CMC Markets chief currency strategist Ashraf Laidi said.
The euro will continue next week, weakness, he said, especially in the German Ifo business confidence survey shows continued drop the case.
British pound against the U.S. dollar fell 0.2 percent to 1.9973, due to speculation that the British government will increase borrowing.
This week, the euro / dollar fell 0.7 percent, the dollar / yen was up 0.8 percent.
** Dollar sentiment is still unstable **
Despite the dollar%26#39;s rally Friday, but analysts said dollar sentiment remained unstable.
Dollar under pressure earlier this week, the Fannie Mae mortgage and the United States and the situation is increasingly worried that the U.S. financial industry physique, while the U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed, FED) Chairman Ben Bernanke said the U.S. financial markets and institutions are still In the enormous pressure under.
Face conflicting data. Centering on the U.S. financial industry or the U.S. economy seems to be no real consensus, HiFX, senior currency strategist Gareth Sylvester said.
The market tried to consider the positive factors ... but each time they consider the loan-to-credit crisis and the problem is over, things will happen again become the focus of these things.
Implied net short dollar rose to highest level since April
Implied net short dollar rose to highest level since April position of the euro little changed on April 22 pounds for the first time to net more dollars dollar index-dollar plans implied net short positions by 59,691 copies to 163,548 copies last week sharply An increase of 103,857, that bearish market sentiment greatly enhanced. Open interest last week to increase. Position changes that the United States dollar loan-to-the fourth round of the impact of the crisis may have come on the market over the concerns in financial markets.
Euro Euro net longs to 23,049 from 24,007, little changed this week because a lot of international money market to go short the dollar, the euro / dollar recorded a record high of 1.6041. The euro positions that limited changes in the market for the euro zone economic growth slowed down the growing concern, the market is still a lot shorts.
British pound sterling net position of the first 12 weeks into the net more, since -8298 to 6432, but this is because the dollar fell overall, and not the British fundamental turn for the better. British economy is still weak, fell to 2.00 below Friday and return to the 1.9400-2.0000 range, in the medium term tendency still in the range concussion.
Swiss francs net position since the clearance -4697 to net more than 15,044, an increase of 19,741 copies, the recent dollar decline, the impact of increased risk aversion sentiment, the Swiss franc net long position reached since January 22, the biggest. However, the U.S. stock market and U.S. bond yields rebound of the U.S. dollar / Swiss franc failed to re-test the March low of facts indicate that the greenback is likely to return to the 1.01-1.05 range.
Yen net longs since last week to 50,105 copies in 5325, soared to net long position since April 29 has been the greatest. But this week dollar / yen has rebounded since the low of 103.78 yen longs decreased, the greenback has rebounded to 105.00-109.00 range, as the Bank of Japan cut interest rates expected to increase, the dollar / yen could further rebound.
Canadian Canadian net position of the first five weeks into the net, from -5952 to 12,859, but this is mainly because of the recent dollar decline. Dollar / Canadian dollar shorts targeting 0.9800, but still within the range 0.9800-1.0350. The recent tendency to decline in commodity prices, the Canadian dollar may be suppressed, and therefore tend to uplink consolidation in the medium term.
Australian non-commercial longs and shorts are non-commercial growth in the previous week, net long continuous growth in the fourth week, this week increased to 56,068 from 49,306 copies were open last week increased interest in 8738, showed that Aussie / dollar To continue rising, before the change was recorded in the record high of 0.9849. With the rise in commodity prices, Australia exports its role in promoting economic growth more and more obvious, good Aussie. Australian dollar in the medium term is still inclined to further rise, longs targeting 1.0000.
Dollar rebound more than 300 shortterm look at the dollar
Dollar / yen 106.74 in New York opened in the vicinity, the greenback briefly touched 106.93 on a high after sustained slight drop at the top of 106.50 in early trading stabilize the exchange rate rise, after U.S. stocks with the stable, sustained and steady move up the beginning of the exchange rate. Late renewal of the exchange rate high and moderate pattern in the Dow Lagao driven, the greenback rose to new high of 106.97 hours. A closed on the exchange rate is high or finishing point, and at the highest point near days.
Dollar / yen opened at 106.22 Friday, the highest on the day touched 106.98, as low as 105.97, the amplitude of 101 points, closing at 106.98, a closing price Thursday rose 70 points, or 0.66 percent. Since Wednesday a more than one month low of 103.77 after the dollar this week after a half weeks has rebounded more than 300 points.
Bank of Japan announced Friday July 12-13, the minutes show, the Bank of Japan Committee members agree that the global economy is facing a high degree of downside risk point of view, the reasons for the difficult financial markets and the U.S. economy to a standstill in the world economic outlook Miwuzhongzhong . Several members of the Committee, taking into account Japan%26#39;s slow growth in wages, compared to the risk of price increases, should be more concerned about the downside risk for the Japanese economy. Central Bank Governors Baichuan Fang-ming (Masaaki Shirakawa) Friday said the central bank for economic downside risk and inflation risk given the same attention, which confirms the central bank%26#39;s policy of neutrality.
Citigroup reported better-than-expected earnings and brokerage ratings up banking stocks, eased the market to the United States worried about the deterioration of the financial industry. The largest U.S. banks Citigroup Inc. announced Friday, Citigroup second-quarter loss of 2.5 billion U.S. dollars, amounting to a net loss of 0.54 U.S. dollars per share, loss less than expected. At the same time, Citigroup will be the rating on Merrill Lynch raised to buy, Lehman also raised its rating of JP Morgan, Citigroup, Deutsche Bank raised its rating.
U.S. economic cycle Institute (ECRI) Friday said its measure of future U.S. economic growth and the week leading indicator of growth in the last week both fell, the latter dropped to two month low, and still show the U.S. economy is facing recession . Data shows that the United States on July 11 when the weeks leading indicator dropped to 131.2, weeks before a revised 132.3, previously reported 132.5.
Wall Street Friday stable trend, the Dow closed up about 43 points, to 11,489 points in the vicinity. To create a low of 10,827 points, the Dow has rebounded more than 600 this week, the Dow rose 3.55 percent, a more than three months of the week, the biggest gain. This reduced risk aversion sentiment, a substantial increase in demand for transaction sets interest rates.
Some analysts pointed out that the chart shows, the dollar / yen lowered the 100 day MA and 95.74-108.58 Shenglang .382 retracement (103.70) Tandi rebound, the K-Line out of the three-connected and a series Broke through 10, 20 and 30-day MA of repression, lifted the average system with a short counter-pressure. The current exchange rate is approaching the 200-day MA, if effective on the break of the resistance, the short-term exchange rate may again attack to 108.60. Downlink, if the break key support 105.00, the greenback may open a new round of declines. Resistance is seen at the top of investors against 107.10 and 107.75, followed at 105.80 and 105.00 while.
Bank of America (Bank of America) in Tokyo, in charge of economic strategy Tomoko Fuji cited technical charts said the dollar / yen gains may be hampered in 107.17. Fuji said that the 107.17 yen resistance is also Dollar / yen 200-day moving average price in which the dollar / yen the previous close to the 200-day moving average dating back to last August 8. At the same time she also pointed out: 107.17 is becoming a key resistance level, it is very difficult to break through.
Barclays Capital (Barclays Capital) Friday said that, however, the dollar rebounded sharply, but the situation did not appear substantive change, as long as the exchange rate can not be above the 107.20, while short-term downward trend remains unchanged, is expected today in the exchange rate of 105.80 support exists at the top, May re-test 107.20, if Diechuan 105.80 support, will be back down trend.
Next Monday will announce Japan%26#39;s supermarket sales in June, the U.S. June Chicago Fed National Activity Index and the United States in June leading indicator of the Chamber of Commerce, is expected to provide some guidelines on exchange rate movements.
Panic dollar longterm psychological affect vulnerable
Recently, the foreign exchange market is very conspicuous surreptitious price of U.S. dollar assets, on the one hand the U.S. stock market prices fell, the Dow fell below 11,000 points level, on the other, the dollar fell to expand, the dollar against the euro exchange rate re-challenge of 1.60 U.S. dollars. Although the premises of the United States and the United States and Fannie%26#39;s problems led to panic and pessimism expansion, but economic indicators remain stable, but the market is difficult to curb prices fell. Technical adjustments dollars, whichever is the strategic response is the core element.
1. U.S. agencies of the part and the whole issue. Current U.S. real estate loan losses and the impact of prominent confidence, social and runs on prices of twists and turns seem to cause panic confidence in the United States to expand. The United States, the International Monetary Fund loan-to-scale loss of the financial assets of 1 trillion U.S. dollars shows that the United States the problem is not so serious, psychological panic beyond reality. From connection with the loan-to-volume, the number of agencies have Lianlei, not two lending institutions and the risk of turbulence can shock the U.S. economy the financial system.
2. Associated with the relevant price indices of non-associated. Recent oil price fluctuations Cuola seems to be a financial asset prices, particularly the U.S. stock market variables as the core factors. Tuesday oil prices reached 17 biggest one-day decline in the rate, is not a simple demand and technology, but strategy and tactics, international and domestic connection with the combination of emphasis, not simply their own prices, but linking resource extraction, President of the United States and the ban on open Oil strike, and many other issues. At the same time the gold price to 1,000 U.S. dollars on the increasingly obvious that the inflation environment and the technology cycle factors in promoting cohesion, will inevitably become a rising gold prices the main driving force.
The euro exchange rate of expansion is expected to increase short-term it is difficult to avoid, the price range will reach 1.65 U.S. dollars may be dropped or changed. Japan%26#39;s economy will not be detrimental to suppress the yen%26#39;s appreciation, the Japanese economic recession and repeated to maintain low interest rates will not conducive to appreciation of the yen.
Investment strategy: wait and see the yen to buy Australian dollars short
Oil prices came after the overall positive economic indicators and promote the good part of the financial dividends, both for U.S. stocks and the dollar rebounded. The dollar index rebounded from Wednesday onwards, the continuous rise, just as one day or one day, the dollar index rose 0.27 percent Wednesday, up 0.25 percent Thursday, Friday 16:12 temporary rose 0.01 percent to 72.20.
A sensitive time next week, whether or not oil prices to trend, the United States to rescue the two U.S. policy of how the follow-up, will greatly about short-term dollar direction. Recently a lot of investors against the U.S. dollar may wish to wait and see, may consider appropriate short Australian dollars to buy yen.
Merrill loss Thursday to temporarily suppress dollars JP Morgan Chase released better-than-forecast results, but Merrill Lynch announced in late New York trade during the earnings are weaker than forecast, which greatly offset by two days because of the factors that have accumulated dollar buying, The dollar started repeatedly.
Merrill Lynch Second quarter loss per share of 4.97 U.S. dollars for the same period last year profit was 2.24 U.S. dollars, before the publication of the average analyst forecast the second quarter, Merrill Lynch 1.94 U.S. dollars deficit. Since the third quarter of last year, Merrill Lynch has so far even the loss of the four quarters. Merrill Lynch announced that in addition to loss, but also announced a 4.43 billion U.S. dollars sale of Bloomberg (BloombergLP) 20% shareholding.
In addition, Germany announced Friday afternoon in June PPI rose to the highest point in 26 has also increased pressure on the dollar. German Federal Statistical Office announced in June PPI rose 6.7 percent year-on-year, set in March 1982 the highest growth rate, over the May rose 6 percent. Prior to accept the Bloomberg News survey of 25 economists expected to rise in value of 6.5%. Germany announced early indicators showed that the CPI index in the 12-year high, it announced Friday the PPI market to further raise the ECB on inflation is expected to take stringent attitude, which is no small pressure on the dollar.
European Central Bank President Jean-Claude Trichet Thursday in the French Le Figaro newspaper and other three European joint interview, said, to avoid second round effects of inflation, although the central bank can not change the trend of oil prices, but to limit services or pay higher prices Produced by the effects of inflation.
Feng Gao Aussie Aussie to go short in a 25-year high after the sluggish trend. New Zealand dollar fell 1.11 percent Thursday, rose slightly Friday, months of its overall performance far as Australian dollars, five months to the New Zealand dollar against the Australian dollar devalues 12 percent. Canadian dollars of goods attribute Shaoruo, but also the considerable impact of oil prices, slightly stronger recently. South African rand to benefit from the recent strong rise in gold, the center line movements maintain a balance, is almost the shocks of the box. Commodities in the strongest currency当属Brazilian Real, the last year has always been to maintain the rise from year to a total appreciation against the dollar by 25%, or even against the Australian dollar also rose by 8.6 percent.
Commodity currency in the short-operability is the most short Australian dollars, in all likelihood the country%26#39;s interest rates have peaked. Stevens central bank governors in Australia this week that three of his speech, the country%26#39;s interest rates have peaked, the current interest rate futures markets expect the next 12 months, Australia%26#39;s chance to cut up to 40%. In today%26#39;s world, there are almost 90 per cent interest rate increase pressure on the currency, interest rate cuts pressure当属rare. International Monetary Fund said Thursday, poor countries and rich countries may have to raising interest rates to combat rising inflation.
Australian fundamentals in addition to subject the United States, but also to a large extent constrained by China, when China%26#39;s GDP growth rate slowed down and the second half and next year%26#39;s economic slowdown may further, which wantonly sales to China iron ore, coal, etc. What does it mean for Australia%26#39;s resources have been self-evident.
The global financial market turbulence may not conducive to Australian dollars, because it will suppress interest in carry trades, particularly the Australian dollar buying from Japan. The current biennium Australian Treasury yields relative to the same period of Japanese government bonds spreads have narrowed the fourth straight week, has indicated that funds flow changes, the trend may be maintained, of course, China and the U.S. economy is still in follow-up variables. (Cheng Chun-Step)
Citigroup earnings boost U.S. dollars of EU money Tandi rebound
At 22:30 on July 18 to at 6:00 on July 19
Currency Overview: The New York sessions, the Department of European currencies against the dollar rebound was Tandi pattern of the euro against the dollar since time low of 1.5804 to 1.5850 rally near the British pound against the dollar from 1.9930 while rising to 1.9990 first. The euro / yen and sterling / yen strength, as well as commodity prices decline, as the currency of the EU has provided some support. Friday U.S. economic data scarce, only the United States announced last week, ECRI%26#39;s leading indicators, but this data have limited impact on the market. Citigroup%26#39;s earnings and performance of U.S. stocks in focus, Citigroup reported better-than-expected earnings, coupled with the banking sector investment rating raised to ease the market to the U.S. financial enterprises operating worried about the deterioration of the situation. By this promotion, the trend of steady U.S. stocks Friday, a relatively strong performance of blue chips, which sets interest rates boosted demand for transactions. Since the dollar was 106.50 yen continued to rebound steadily rose to 107.00 integer level below. U.S. dollar against the Swiss franc at 1.0250 dilapidated time high, to maintain relatively strong, integral Shouwen 1.0200 level, and finishing strong. New Zealand involvement in the increased risk of the Fed rate cut next week, New Zealand and 0.7630 yuan against the dollar since rounded down to levels near 0.7600, Australian dollar also retracement from 0.9730 to 0.9700 nearby. This time, the dollar index down slightly from 72.30 to 72.10, near the end at 72.17.
The largest U.S. banks Citigroup Inc. announced Friday, Citigroup second-quarter loss of 2.5 billion U.S. dollars, amounting to a net loss of 0.54 U.S. dollars per share, loss less than expected.
U.S. ratings have raised the banking sector, Citigroup will be the rating on Merrill Lynch raised to buy, Lehman also raised its rating of JP Morgan, Citigroup, Deutsche Bank raised its rating.
Focus, leader:
7:01 next Monday - the British in July Rightmove the average housing price index in Australia 09:30 second quarter producer price index 15:15 Switzerland in June producer / import price index 22:00 Chamber of Commerce of the United States in June leading indicator of major currencies Trend Analysis:
Euro: euro / dollar opened at 1.5828 in New York near the greenback quickly lowered time low of 1.5804 after the sustained rally. By the euro / yen strength led up to the greenback during morning high of 1.5863, but subject to 1.5870/80 at the top selling, dollar slightly down午盘. Late at 1.5835/60 against the narrow range continued to organize and continue the trend to close. The euro opened at 1.5862 Friday, the highest on the day touched 1.5885, the lowest lowered to 1.5804, amplitude was 81 points in the final to finish at 1.5836 compared with Thursday closing price fell 25 points, or 0.16 percent. On the map show that euro / dollar Friday lowered on the 10th MA moderate rebound, but again Yuzu five-day MA shows that short-term up more resistance. MA showed the current system with long, multi-technical benefit. If investors effective on the break 1.5950, the greenback may again at the top to 1.6000 attack. If the average down below on the 10th, the exchange rate of 1.6000 in the medium-term double top at the top to build the risk will increase. Investors euro / dollar above the resistance is seen at 1.5895 and 1.5945, followed at 1.5765 and then 1.5635.
Japanese yen: dollar / yen 106.74 in New York opened in the vicinity, the greenback briefly touched 106.93 on a high after sustained slight drop at the top of 106.50 in early trading stabilize the exchange rate rise, after U.S. stocks with the stable, sustained and steady move up the beginning of the exchange rate. Late renewal of the exchange rate high and moderate pattern in the Dow Lagao driven, the greenback rose to new high of 106.98 hours. A closed on the exchange rate is high or finishing point, and at the highest point near days. Dollar / yen opened at 106.22 Friday, the highest on the day touched 106.98, as low as 105.97, the amplitude of 101 points, closing at 106.97, a closing price Thursday rose 70 points, or 0.66 percent. Since Wednesday a more than one month low of 103.77 after the dollar this week after a half weeks has rebounded more than 300 points. On the map shows, the dollar / yen lowered the 100 day MA and 95.74-108.58 Shenglang .382 retracement (103.70) Tandi rebound, the K-Line out of the three-connected and a series of breakthroughs 10, 20 And 30-day MA of repression, lifted the average system with a short counter-pressure. The current exchange rate is approaching the 200-day MA, if effective on the break of the resistance, the short-term exchange rate may again attack to 108.60. Downlink, if the break key support 105.00, the greenback may open a new round of declines. Investors the dollar / yen above the resistance is seen at 107.10 and 107.75, followed at 105.80 and 105.00 while.
GBP: British pound / dollar opened at 1.9938 in New York near the low of 1.9930 dollar slightly lowered after the sustained rally. Sterling / yen continued to rebound straight set up to provide a driving force, benefited from the strong cross-exchange rate,午盘the greenback rose to a high of 1.9987. But the selling pressure below 2.000, the greenback failed to gain further expansion. Dollar slightly down from late after sustained high and rose to new high of 1.9989 time, after the greenback continued to focus on finishing the high point until the closing. British pound at 2.0037 Friday opened, the days of minimum lowered to 1.9907, to 2.0037 touched on the maximum amplitude of 130 points, closing at 1.9984 compared with Thursday closing price fell 56 points, or 0.28 percent. On the map, sterling / dollar Friday break the 200-day MA strong pull up, extending the recent focus on the average strength of finishing the pattern, but in the exchange rate of 2.0100 at the top of continued disruption, and gradually lower the lows, that after finishing, The exchange rate direction breakthrough investors face the possibility of more. MACD indicators suggest that the long decline of kinetic energy, has increased the probability of breakthrough in the exchange rate down. But the greenback still at 2.3095 and 2.0005 Shouwen connect two points constitute the medium-term downward trend in the online side, the medium-term rebound in that pattern will remain unchanged. At the same time, 10, 20 and 30-day MA to continue with long, continue to support the medium-term bullish confidence. Investors sterling / dollar above the resistance is seen at 2.0040 and 2.0100, followed at 1.9905 and then 1.9895.
U.S. and Japanese shortterm rebound, but there is still strong intention to continue
Fundamentals:
Yesterday, the dollar all higher, recovering the lost ground this week. Crude oil futures fell more than 5 U.S. dollars to promote stock market has soared, boosting the dollar. New York Mercantile Exchange, crude oil closed yesterday at 129.48 U.S. dollars a barrel, since oil futures this week has been a cumulative decline of 16 dollars, the largest-ever three-set decreases. The Dow Jones index to fall in oil prices soaring and pushed the dollar higher. Dollar gains the most notable, from the intraday low of 104.76 to a high of 107.11. The United States and Japan to reverse almost a week since the fall. The trend in the financial sector turmoil, coupled with federal housing loans secured by the company and the Federal National Mortgage Association may fear the collapse of the dollar against the yen had had a free fall. But the two institutions share prices have rebounded at the same time, JP Morgan Chase better-than-expected performance report also boosted the market sentiment. Oil prices has been seen as the U.S. economy is facing one of the most serious problem. A significant proportion of people believe that once the fall in oil prices, U.S. economic recovery will be achieved. Dollar last night has also been a few accidents in June housing starts rose 9.1 percent boost, but the month of the reasons for the increasing number of housing starts in New York City building codes adjustments.
Recalling the session:
U.S. dollar against the yen on the map of direction Hengpan yesterday volatility 234 points to close out a big Yangxian. 104.30 in the previous day in the vicinity of the trend line support experience, the dollar rebounded sharply yesterday, has reached a short-term small head-and-shoulder at the end of the ideals and goals. Today, after the adjustment of the exchange rate will move up a wave and then to the whereabouts of Yuzu rhythm.
Short-term direction of the day: Chonggao Yuzu down after weak support: 105.50 strong support: 104.10 weak resistance: 106.80 strong resistance: 108.60
Dollar short-term to a small head-and-shoulder patterns reverse the decline at the end of yesterday, out of great one-day gain. MACD on the map in a short kinetic energy filling the region, the greenback rebounded again close to a large rise from under along, it is expected to return to the channel within the little hope. Figure 4 hours, turn the main rhythm of the main short-term, continuous large Yangxian rapid Chonggao to the United States and Japan, yesterday became a high of 107.10 at the top of the first major resistance. Figure hour after the end of a departure from MACD signal to play a certain role, the first shoulder at the end of the minimum target has been achieved and the neckline support at 105.50. Today, the United States and Japan is expected to slightly Chonggao will support this challenge, the risk of downstream investors still low.
Operation of reference:
The recent operation, the center line, are in short interval operation as a guide line of thought.
A warehouse: many hands if the United States and Japan alone, stop-loss on 105.20, 106.80 goals; hands if the United States and Japan-air, stop-loss on 107.10, 104.40 goal.
Kongcang: wait-and-see today.
U.S. financial system of uncertainty, the economy will continue Jianhao »
Exchange the previous day of the foreign exchange market Thursday dollar held steady rebound. The Commerce Department reported Thursday, the U.S. June housing starts increased 9.1 percent seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.066 million. Forecast for June housing starts fell 1.2 percent annual rate to 963,000. June building permits increased 11.6 percent to 1.091 million annual rate. Predictive value fell 0.8 percent to 970,000. This data show that the U.S. housing market stabilize signs of easing in the market to the U.S. housing market continued weakness worries. In addition, the U.S. Labor Department Thursday said that up to July 12 week, seasonally adjusted initial jobless claims increased 18,000, to 366,000 people. Prior to survey are available in the media, economists expected to increase 34,000 people. U.S. economic data generally better than expected, JP Morgan-than-expected earnings report, or to ease the market to the U.S. economy and credit issues of concern, triggered the dollar%26#39;s rebound all. At the same time, easing the US-Iraqi relations, the impact of U.S. economic slowdown, U.S. stocks and U.S. Treasury yields higher, coupled with commodity prices plummeted, further Zhuzhang the dollar. Friday concerned the United States last week ECRI leading indicator of the announcement.
Technical indicators and trend forecast:
Euro / dollar euro / dollar is expected to settle down, the first goal, or see support at 1.5770 U.S. dollars. Thursday in the U.S. housing market data to promote the weak points of the index, the euro / dollar rose to new highs after hours confined downlink. European Central Bank President Jean-Claude Trichet said that the European Central Bank will ensure that the inflation rate below two percent in the medium term, the need to prevent second round effects of inflation, the euro zone there salary - the risk of rising price spiral. The European Central Bank Jean-Claude Trichet reiterated that the tough fight against inflation monetary policy stance for the euro has provided some support, but Powei down oil prices triggered sharp rebound in the dollar, the euro continued low. Germany will be published Friday in June producer price index and the euro zone May trade account.
Technical analysis: the euro / dollar, K-Line from top to bottom to a small Yangxian. Japan plans indicators mixed, MACD 0 axis side, RSI indicators in 56 regional downward, KD random targets Sicha down. The previous day euro / dollar at 1.5891 on the Exploration maximum sustained after the fall minimum see 1.5781. Europe and the United States if the yuan is expected today to complete the adjustment below the 1.5880 region, will be lowered the support at 1.5770. Investors expected a downward correction.
Support at: 1.5770 resistance: 1.5880
Sterling / dollar sterling / dollar is expected to settle down, or see the first goal of supporting 1.9880 U.S. dollars. Thursday the Bank of England Sentai Si said that he rapid increase in the rate of inflation situation is very disturbing, because it expected inflation to the upstream face significant risks. But he also acknowledged that the British economy slam the brakes hard to avoid. In the U.S. economy stabilize at the same time, the United Kingdom relatively slow economic growth and high prices serious, the sterling / dollar. Friday June concerns the British public sector financial data and June CML mortgage data, the Bank of England will Jifu, vice president delivered a speech.
Technical analysis: sterling / dollar, K-Line at a long shadow on the cross-sing. On the map of indicators pointing to different axis, is located in the MACD columnar gentle posture, RSI indicators in 57 regional-taking, random KD indicators Sicha down. The previous day pounds / dollars on exploration highest level 2.0071 after 1.9948 see continued down the minimum. Today is expected to pound / dollar at 2.0080, if fully adjusted to the bottom of the region, will be lowered the support at 1.9880. Investors expected a downward correction.
Support at: 1.9880 resistance: 2.0080
Australian dollar / Australian dollar / dollar is expected to settle down, the first goal, or see support at 0.9660 U.S. dollars. Thursday%26#39;s U.S. data, and JP Morgan of better-than-expected earnings report, the dollar has provided support. In addition, merger-related demand is still good Aussie, but Australian economic growth slowed to a disappointing Australian dollars. Meanwhile, the Australian dollar against the U.S. dollar three-month bond yield spread shows that the Australian dollar / dollar fell below 0.9600, sharply lower commodity prices weighed on the Australian dollar down. Australia announced Friday morning the second quarter of the export price index increased by 13.5 percent quarter rate, the largest single quarter set a record growth; quarter rate of import price index rose by 1.4 percent. Although export prices expected to surge as early as within, but the rate of increase of this scale or to Australia of trade has brought significant improvement in the further widening of trade expectations, Australia%26#39;s trade accounts will be a very likely So long period of sustained deficits into surpluses and haze. As good has been digested in advance, so when the data was released when the market does not make a clear response.
Technical analysis: Aussie / dollar, K-Line from top to bottom to root out negative shadow on the 10-Star. On the map of bearish indicators, MACD-line extension of the axis 0; RSI indicator down; random KD pointer Sicha down. The previous day%26#39;s Aussie / dollar at 0.9815 on the Exploration maximum sustained after the fall minimum see 0.9727. Today is expected to Aussie / dollar at 0.9770, if fully adjusted to the bottom of the region, will be lowered the support at 0.9660. Investors expected a downward correction.
Support at: 0.9660 resistance: 0.9770
New Zealand yuan / dollar New Zealand yuan / dollar is expected to settle down, or see the first goal of supporting 0.7700 U.S. dollars. Thursday New Zealand yuan / dollar continued to fall. JP Morgan Chase Bank in strong earnings reports after the announcement, prices for the third consecutive trading day sharp decline, and promote New Zealand yuan / dollar lower. As data released Friday did not important, it is expected that crude oil price fluctuations will dominate the market direction. New Zealand economy and the uncertainty will make New Zealand yuan against major currencies continued to show weak.
Technical analysis: New Zealand the previous day%26#39;s yuan / dollar, K-Line from top to bottom to the long shadow of Yinxian. MACD indicators on the flat axis wear 0; RSI pointer 51 regional downward; KD indicators were formed Sicha. The previous day%26#39;s New Zealand yuan / dollar high of 0.7736 on exploration after the insipid minimum see 0.7682. New Zealand is expected today yuan / dollar at 0.7700, if fully adjusted to the bottom of the region, will be lowered the support at 0.7540. Investors expected a downward correction.
Support at: 0.7540 resistance: 0.7700
Dollar / yen dollar / yen is expected to settle down, or see the first goal of resistance to 107.40 yen. Thursday dollar / yen release of the data and the JP Morgan report better-than-expected earnings, rose for the U.S. dollar has added impetus. At the same time, oil prices fell, U.S. stocks rose, greatly boost the demand for kits income trading, the dollar / yen at one stroke broke the 106.00 level integer, and trigger stop-loss at the top of its sustained high. Japan will be announced Friday in Tokyo department store sales in June and the national department store sales, while the Bank of Japan announced June 12 to 13 central bank%26#39;s monetary policy meeting records, central bank governors will deliver a speech Baichuan Fang-ming, is expected to exchange rate movements on Provide some guidance.
Technical analysis: the previous day%26#39;s dollar / yen, or K Line to the long shadow Yangxian. Figure on different indicators, MACD indicators 0 axis gentle, RSI 48 indicators of regional progress and random targets Jincha KD upward. The previous day%26#39;s dollar / yen 104.73 lowered the minimum-maximum sustained rise see 107.08. Today, expect the dollar / yen to 105.40 as regional top supported, and will be on the exploration of the resistance at 107.40. Investors expect upward correction.
Support level: 105.40 resistance: 107.40
Dollar / Canadian dollar / Canadian dollar is expected to settle down, see the first goal of resistance 1.0120 Canadian dollars. The Commerce Department reported Thursday the United States, the United States in June housing starts increased 9.1 percent seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.066 million. Forecast for June housing starts fell 1.2 percent annual rate to 963,000. June building permits increased 11.6 percent to 1.091 million annual rate. Predictive value fell 0.8 percent to 970,000. This data show that the U.S. housing market stabilize signs of easing in the market to the U.S. housing market continued weakness worries. Militants attack oil pipeline in Nigeria led to the Italian oil company ENI in the country shut down 47,000 barrels / day capacity, Canada also the phenomenon of supply disruptions, the two countries a total of 200,000 barrels / day capacity was forced to interrupt. Dollar / Canadian dollar all the sharp decline in oil prices and strong support.
Technical analysis: the previous day%26#39;s dollar / Canadian Yuanri K line from top to bottom at a long shadow on the small Yangxian. Figure on different indicators, MACD indicators in the shaft below 0, RSI-pointer in 42 regions go, random KD indicators Jincha upward. The previous day%26#39;s dollar / Canadian dollar lowered the minimum 0.9978-1.0079 see the highest rise. Today, dollar / Canadian dollar 1.0000 in the region such as access to the top of the support, will be on the exploration of the resistance at 1.0120. Investors expected upward correction.
Support at: 1.0000 resistance: 1.0120
Dollar / Swiss franc dollar / Swiss franc is expected to settle down, or see the first goal of resistance to 1.0290 Swiss francs. Thursday dollar / Swiss franc in New York concussion move up. U.S. economic data generally better than expected, JP Morgan-than-expected earnings report, or to ease the market to the U.S. economy and credit issues of concern, triggered the dollar%26#39;s rebound all. At the same time, U.S. stocks moderately higher Thursday, boosted by demand for transaction sets interest rates, the dollar / Swiss franc has provided some support.
Technical analysis: dollar / Swiss franc, or K Line to cross under the long shadow Star, the map shows that different, MACD indicators to extend below the 0-axis, RSI indicators in 48 regional-taking, random KD means Jincha upward. The previous day%26#39;s dollar / Swiss franc at 1.0133 lowered the minimum continued to rise after the Supreme see 1.0258. Today, dollar / Swiss franc at 1.0110 if support was at the top of the region, will be on the exploration of the resistance at 1.0290. Investors expected the consolidation.
Support at: 1.0110 resistance: 1.0290
The euro, pound sterling against the dollar trend analysis
UBS (UBS) Friday said that the euro / dollar from 1.6038 corrective pullback, holding the support at 1.5772/54 euro / sterling, the dollar dropped from 0.8022 to test 0.7903 support, as long as the exchange rate of 0.7834 hold at the top, then Rising trend unchanged.
The bank also pointed out that the dollar / yen rebounded sharply from 103.75, reportedly at the top of 106.15, with resistance at 107.76.
In addition, UBS also said that the pound / dollar 1.9933 at the top of favorable long Shouwen, market attention resistance is seen at 2.0157 and 2.0193.
-- 15:20, the dollar / yen at 106.16/19, the euro / dollar at 1.5860/63, sterling / dollar at 1.9956/59, the euro / sterling at 0.7947/49.
Merrill Lynch dollar loss suppress news
It seems that the recent fate of dollars and the United States financial institutions fate lock together, JP Morgan Chase announced yesterday optimistic earnings reports, the dollar brought good, but Merrill Lynch announced in late New York trade sluggish earnings reports, show that loss of 4.6 billion U.S. dollars, is the fourth consecutive quarter of A loss, Moody%26#39;s lowered ratings to Merrill Lynch A2, IBM earnings per share to 1.98 dollars, 1.82 U.S. dollars higher than expected, AMD reported second-quarter loss of 1.96 billion U.S. dollars, higher-than-expected loss per share of 52 cents a share, Microsoft Earnings per share of 46 cents a share, slightly below expectations of 47 cents a share, the overall benefit desalination dollars, Citibank investors concerned about earnings reports.
Asia City major data and events: Australia second quarter export price index quarter rate of 13.5 percent, the annual rate of 6.3 percent and imports quarter CPI rate of 1.4 percent annual rate of 6.2 percent. Germany June producer price index rate of 0.9 percent annual rate of 6.7 percent.
Financial market: Nikkei Index fell 84.25 points, to close at 12803.70 points as of 14:30 - in recent months oil rose 1.11 U.S. dollars, at 130.40 U.S. dollars / barrel, in recent months gold or 10.40 U.S. dollars, at 960.30 U.S. dollars / oz.
European major city data and events: - 16:00 Italy announced May industrial orders 16:30 UK June public sector net borrowing / short poor balance of payments and money supply; 17:00 announced in May the euro zone trade account.
The euro during the Asian euro / dollar rose to 1.5864 early trading, dropped after 1.5823, up late again. Long dollar positions, higher-than-expected German producer price index brought support. On the map in the exchange rate rose above the trend line support and maintain bullish, indicators support the consolidation, hours Figure indicators bullish, MACD potential for the formation of Jin Cha, the greenback is testing hours map trend line resistance, the initial support in the 1.5762 (July 11-hour plans low ), With resistance at 1.5973 (July 14-city high).
Japanese yen during the Asian dollar / yen fell to 106.10 early trading, the mode of fund short-covering support, the dollar rebounded, the euro / yen fell to 168.29 early trading, after Citigroup earnings report on the support of the optimistic expectations rebound. Bank of Japan June meeting records that economic downside risk, but after the Bank of Japan governor Baichuan Fang-ming speech on inflation risks up to the same concern. Japan%26#39;s Marine Day next Monday closed trading before the long weekend limited interest. On the map on yesterday%26#39;s exchange rate rose back to the recent consolidation range, now 20 and 50-day MA restrictions on the exchange rate, high tendency to settle down before the weekend, hours Figure bearish indicators, MACD formed Sicha, the initial support in 102.57 (May 12, Figure low), the resistance in the 108.61 (June 17, plans high).
British pound sterling during the Asian / dollar closed in the vicinity of 2.0, fell to 1.9943 early trading, the euro rose to 0.7912 pounds from 0.7938, Financial Times reported the British Ministry of Finance to change the law to expand the borrower, suppressing pounds, the official news was that after Sovereignty account buying support sterling / dollar%26#39;s rally. Japan plans test on the exchange rate is the trend line support, hours map slightly bearish indicators, initial support in the 1.9885 (July 1-hour plans low), the resistance in the 2.0163 (July 15-hour plans high).
Swiss franc during the Asian dollar / morning rose to 1.0225 Swiss francs, down to 1.0180 after the euro / Swiss franc fell slightly, close to 1.6160, it is still high. Japanese stocks rose early, after the fall of suppressing risk preferences, the strength of the yen cross was brought support. Figure slightly bearish indicators hours, the initial support in the 1.0011 (July 15-hour plans low), the resistance in the 1.0357 (July 9 hours map high).
Australian New Zealand Canadian Asia early Aussie / dollar in a tight range 0.9705-30 range, was on the U.S. electronic market to guard against sharp movements. Australia second quarter of substantial terms of trade rose 12 percent, support the Australian dollar. Wednesday and Thursday on the 2nd consecutive Aussie / dollar on the map of high / low down, on the actions could recession, Chu O-line hard-line stance a little soft, the pullback in commodity prices, the dollar rebounded. But Aussie / dollar sentiment remains bullish, good economic performance, Europe and the United States faced down the relative risk even smaller, the Australian Reserve Bank%26#39;s inflation control is better. Figure hour indicators neutral. Initial support at 0.9644 (July 10-hour plans high), with resistance at 0.9852 (July 15-hour plans high).
Africa and the United States shortterm trend of the strong side
Dollar slightly lower in Asia after the United States that fell from 72.20 to 72 near the top of the current concern is to be a steady 72, if the place Shouwen, then there will be another short-term rebound in the forefront of kinetic energy 72.20,72.50, contrary Will emerge from the upstream channel, investors will have the pullback may test the forefront of 71.80.
Euro / dollar: 1.59/1.58 in the run shocks, investors are expected to continue the trend of the shocks of the possibility of strong, short-term investors can try interval operation.
Sterling / dollar: 1.9950 support near there, investors in the tested in the rebound after the possibility of greater resistance at the top of the first 2.0080,2.0160 nearby, with support for the vicinity of 1.99.
Dollar / yen: biased towards short-term downside risk, the first concern near the Shouwen 105.80, while below the 105.40 line, near the top resistance at 106.80/107.10.
Aussie / dollar: a short-term rebound 0.9760 resistance near the kinetic energy, is expected to investors in the tested bit after the first pullback test 0.97/0.9670.
Dollar / Swiss franc: downlink test 1.0150 support near the kinetic energy, further lowered below the 1.01 line, near the top resistance at 1.0250.
Dollar / Canadian dollar: biased towards short-term downside risk, investors have lowered the forefront of 1.0 to Shouwen bit concerned about this situation, the steady-on, investors will have the rebound 1.0080 kinetic energy, but will be further lowered near the 0.9970 Support.
Gold: downlink test of support around 954, the current gold Shouwen of the above, investors appear more likely to rebound, short-term in the vicinity of the venue to see more 954/952, 966/969 targets to look at the front line, the stop-loss in 950 nearby.
Chonggao retracement of the euro dollar began stabilize
Thursday, the European currency against the U.S. dollar in a wide pattern of finishing shocks, the U.S. housing market data sub-indicators to promote the weak euro against the U.S. dollar rose to 1.5893 time high, but commodity prices fell 1.5800 to the euro break, dropped to time low of 1.5783, A dollar also closed at 1.5850 to the strong rebound at the top. The pound was at 2.0071 dollars after Yuzu, homeopathy lowered to time low of 1.9949, followed by bargain hunting buying pull, the greenback rebounded strongly to 2.0000 at the top. To the sharp decline in oil prices Thursday, NYMEX crude oil futures fell below 130.00 U.S. dollars / barrel integral support, a June 6 since the low of 129.00 U.S. dollars / barrel. Fall in oil prices boost U.S. stocks rose, the Dow closed Thursday up nearly 200 points, pushed the dollar against the yen Lianpo 106.00 and 107.00 two checkpoints, rose to new high of 107.07 hours. U.S. dollar against the Swiss franc at 1.0200 at the top extended gains, on the exploration time high of 1.0258 to. Weak commodity prices weighed on the commodity currencies down, the Australian dollar fell below the 0.9700 level integer, lowered to a low of 0.9677. New Zealand 0.7600 yuan against the U.S. dollar fell below the level of an integer, lowered to time low of 0.7581. But the dollar close as experienced substantial profit-taking, the Australian and New Zealand recovered 0.9700 yuan and 0.7600 respectively, rounded juncture. Pre-U.S. dollar in the near future may once again turn to the disadvantaged.
Sterling / dollar pounds to make a U-turn after pumping high drop down, repeated movements, the volatility of 140 points. 2.0016 in the early part of pumping high resistance to 2.0095 after a sell-down reproduction push down sterling 1.9956 floor, ended the U-turn upward 2.0040. Today is expected to rely on strong pound fell further after the stabilization. U.S. economic data released last night was mixed, dollar rebound power is limited, but fortunately made good on Wall Street rebound in the dollar to support important driving force, taking a pound because of the recent sale of ultra-short-term phenomenon, said today after the first firmer on Caiken Further down. Although the British economic data not to be good, but not always important to bring down the pretext of pounds.
Weak support: 1.9930 Strong support: 1.9810, the weak resistance: 2.0070 strong resistance: 2.0160.
Euro / dollar exchange rate shocks higher early in the U.S. housing market data to promote the weak points of the index, the greenback Elevated to time high of 1.5893, 1.5900 at the top but the selling pressure weighed on the greenback after the downlink. 午盘, Jean-Claude Trichet speech support for the euro slightly higher, but NYMEX crude oil futures down Powei, all triggered dollar rebound, the dollar continued to fall. Trading, oil prices continue to be soft, rounded drag the greenback fell below 1.5800 support, lowered to time low of 1.5783. By pulling bargain hunting buying, the greenback also rose to 1.5800 at the top, after the greenback continued to narrow range around 1.5820/30 finishing until closing. The euro opened at 1.5825 Thursday, days on the highest touched 1.5893, 1.5783 lowered the minimum, the amplitude of 110 points, closing at 1.5830 compared with Wednesday closing price rose 4 points, or 0.03 percent. On the map show that euro / dollar on Thursday exploration on the 5th MA Yuzu down, lowered down on the 10th MA modest rebound, that the exchange rate down short-term limited space. At present 10, 20 and 30-day MA with a long, technical multi-beneficial. But if not, break 1.5950 resistance, may increase the empty feeling. If the effective break on the 10th MA, built above the 1.60 dollar in the medium-term at the top of the risk will increase.
Weak resistance: 1.5895 strong resistance: 1.5945, the weak support: strong support 1.5780: 1.5755.
Dollar / Japanese yen, the greenback rose sharply driven by Wall Street, after the break through 106 or to further expand, near a high of late fall. This morning, the greenback rose slightly. According to analysis of dollar / yen lower in recent encounter strong support, the overall uplink desire to be strong, the current exchange rate fell further temporary disruption, if investors take a firm in the 106, is expected to again later in the uplink a greater chance of concussion .
Weak resistance: 106.60 strong resistance: 107.00, the weak support: 106.00 strong support: 105.60.
Dollar joint intervention to support the timing has grown »
1 Market Review:
Yesterday (July 17) in the Asian time, the euro closed at 1.5818 against the dollar over the previous trading day opened down 92 points, fell slightly early low of 1.5808, and then gradually rose to 1.5866 high, the European Open City before the euro was Range of 1.5845-66 dollars in a tight range.
European City time, the publication of economic data showed that Italy May EU trade account surplus of 1.713 billion euros, the year-ago profit of 295 million euros. Italy May trade account deficit of 59 million euros a year ago deficit of 779 million euros. Morning the euro rose to 1.5893 against the dollar high of the day (and the author charges version of the assessment is expected on that day high of 1.5900, short of 7:00), as JP Morgan Chase announced higher-than-expected earnings reports, the exchange rate gradually fell back to 1.5830 lows, the United States City before the opening of the euro against the dollar in tight range 1.5830-66 range.
U.S. City time, the publication of economic data showed that the United States on July 12 when the weekly jobless claims 366,000, is expected to 380,000. U.S. June housing starts 1060000, expected 960,000. The United States in June building permits 1091000, expected 960,000. U.S. June housing starts rose 9.1 percent in May fell 2.7 percent. U.S. July Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index for the -16.3, is expected to -15.0. A number of U.S. economic data show higher than expected, reducing the market prospects for the U.S. housing market worries, coupled with commodity prices fell, the dollar started strong, the euro fell to 1.5783 against the U.S. dollar significantly (and the author charges version of the assessment is expected on that day low At 1.5780, short of 7:00), the late gradually rose to 1.5870 level. Yesterday the euro against the U.S. dollar closed at 1.5818, the highest 1.5893, the lowest 1.5783, 1.5857 close, the 110 days of volatility, or 0.03 percent.
Second, this view:
Yesterday a number of U.S. economic data show higher than expected, and commodity prices tumbled, JP Morgan-than-expected earnings report, or to ease the market to the U.S. economy and credit concerns, the dollar continued to rebound. At present the European Central Bank is expected to reduce the interest rate increase, while the European economy is facing slowing down the risk. The author believes that the U.S. dollar continued to rebound in sight.
At present more worthy of attention is that the joint intervention to prevent central banks support the dollar. In 2000, the decline in the euro endless disrupt the global economy was seen as the culprits, therefore, the central bank intervention in foreign exchange markets was mainly pushed up the euro. At present, the dollar is extremely difficult situation, the United States central bank intervention on foreign exchange markets to rescue the voice of higher and higher. Many experts believe that the timing of intervention is becoming mature, the current situation shows the urgent need for interventions. Because the U.S. financial system to attract capital and depend on a significant number of new overseas venture capital, if the dollar-denominated assets continued weakness in the U.S. financial industry will undoubtedly worsen the situation, the United States should consider intervention in foreign exchange markets.
Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke said in testimony before the House of Representatives also said that in market volatility and disorderly, they may need to take interim action. This year, the dollar index has dropped 10 percent in the past six years it was down more than 40%. At the same time, six years in international oil prices rose more than seven times. Over the past few decades reference to the central bank foreign exchange market intervention in the history of the dollar and the euro exchange rate has been rapidly approaching a critical point. In 1985, Plaza Agreement signed five years ago, the dollar trade-weighted index rose more than 50%, and this situation Save the 2000 G7 countries, virtually the same as the euro. The author believes that the United States central bank intervention to support the dollar opportunity has grown, the dollar will rebound in the long-term opportunities.
Today, the euro zone and the United States concerned about data, Germany in June producer price index, the euro zone trade balance in May, the United States last week, ECRI%26#39;s leading indicators. German producer price index in June the previous value of 1.0% / month dropped to 0.7 percent / month, the euro data will be negative. If the euro zone trade balance in May before the value of less than 2.3 billion euros, the euro data will be negative. If the United States last week, ECRI%26#39;s leading indicators higher than the value of 132.5 before, the data will be beneficial to U.S. dollars. In addition, Citibank today%26#39;s earnings reports also cause for concern.
